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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 142330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
530 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

An early winter wx event is occurring mainly to our west across
northern MS and western TN. An upper level system remains parked over
central AR but should begin to shift NE overnight tonight. A surface
low was moving across central AL E/NE into NE AL and southern middle
TN. What looks to be unfolding is a strong low/mid jet is advecting
warmer temps (+3C) into northern AL and central TN. This WAA has kept
much of the precip in liquid form across our area and latest radar CC
data would suggest this should stay that way. However, just over the
state line in MS and TN we are seeing stronger CAA near the surface 
and this has resulted in some of the liquid precip refreezing into 
sleet. The thinking for the rest of the evening is that as the upper 
level system starts to shift NE this almost trowal that exists just 
to the west will pivot N/NE. Drier air shown in latest water vapor 
imagery will advect in behind this feature and can be seen in latest 
radar imagery. Where you have a sharp gradient between light to 
moderate precip along the state line and little to no precip west of 
that. Even though we may start to see radar returns diminish think we
will still have enough forcing/lift to support some light 
drizzle/rain tonight into tomorrow morning. Have held onto PoPs a 
little longer out west and as the cooler/drier air starts to spread 
into the area we could see a change over to a mix of freezing 
drizzle/rain. Maybe even some snow grains mixed in as well. But 
believe that surface temperatures will be warm enough that we are not
expecting any accumulations on road surfaces. We could see some 
light accums of ice on powerlines and trees overnight but it 
shouldn't amount to much. 

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Early Thursday morning we may still have enough moisture near the
surface and lift for some rain/drizzle. But, models have been a
little quicker in ending precip across the area and we will let the
next shift see if they need to pull back on precip end times. With
temps at freezing to slightly below anything that is falling could
freeze. However, as mentioned in the near term section believe that
road temperatures should stay on the warmer side and prevent any
accumulations on road surfaces. Also, any lingering moisture on the
ground should undergo some evaporation as the drier moves in
overnight, so that should limit any possible situation where moisture
on the surfaces freeze. 

Forecast soundings show some weakening of an inversion just above the
surface but we will still remain overcast for much of the day. This
should keep temps in the mid to upper 30s for highs, well below our
normal highs 65 degrees. It probably won't be until Friday morning
before we are able to see the clouds break out and the sun start to
shine. Sunny skies on Friday will allow temps to rebound into the mid

Lows Friday night into Saturday will be in the upper 20s. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Friday night into Saturday, the 5h flow pattern temporarily becomes 
more zonal across the southern CONUS, with 8h and surface highs
building over the southeast. Although low level temperature advection
will be more or less neutral Saturday, highs should still reach
u50s-l60s. On Sunday, 8h temperature advection becomes slightly cold
as flow becomes west-northwest. However, the next trough axis over
dropping rapidly southeast from the Rockies into the mid South Sunday
afternoon will bring limited mid and high level moisture. The
associated weak cold front has only limited rainfall potential. Will
keep a Slight Chance going Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Yet another shortwave trough drops Southeast through the central 
corn belt and lower OH valley on Tuesday, arriving in the central 
and eastern TN valley Tuesday evening. Again, this will be a moisture
starved system, with limited precip potential for north AL and south
TN. There may be some upslope along the cold front along the 
northern Cumberland Plateau and Smoky Mtns to our northeast, but will
keep a dry forecast here.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Restricted flying conds continue at both main airports this Wed
evening, as a weak sfc wave continues to lift nwd across the cntrl TN
Valley. Lower cigs near/just below 1K ft remain in place across the
area, and these conds should persist into Thu morning. Light precip
also continues to spread newd across the area, with most of this
being -ra in nature. However, a brief mixture of -plra is possible
near the KMSL airport over the next hr, as cooler air begins to
spread ewd into the region. The light precip should taper off to the
NE later tonight, with cigs perhaps lifting closer to 2K ft late Thu




NEAR TERM...Stumpf

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at weather.gov/huntsville.