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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 180149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
849 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

The remnants of Florence continue to advect ENE away from the TN
Valley this evening, centered over WV as of this writing. One final 
spoke of high clouds rotating around the Wrn periphery of the 
decaying system is now pushing Swrd into NW AL. Sky grids have been 
updated accordingly for tonight given the latest Nighttime 
Microphysics RGB imagery showing this trend. The impact these clouds
will have on the patchy fog development across the area should be to
lessen an already low potential for fog, but will monitor this trend
and update the forecast as necessary (with some lower clouds noted
along the TN/KY border upstream if they hold together). 

Otherwise, dry and mild wx conditions are expected overnight with
morning lows falling into the upper 60s by sunrise. No additional
changes were warranted to the current forecast other than tweaking
sky grids to follow more in line with observational trends. 

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

With the departure of the tropical system, dry and very warm to hot
conditions continue through the midweek. With more sun than clouds,
even with a light northerly flow, high temperatures both days should
rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Have inched temperatures to 
the mid 90s for Wednesday, as upper ridging builds over the region 
from the southwest. More unseasonably warm nights with lows in the 
mid 60s to around 70 are expected. For reference, normal highs this 
time of year are in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s. 

Even with the daytime warmth, enough moisture left over Tuesday night
could bring more patchy fog formation during the late night. Given 
uncertainly on coverage/density, left it as patchy this issuance. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

One more day of very warm/hot and dry weather continues on Thursday,
thanks to strong upper ridging in place across the southeastern 
CONUS. Highs should warm into the low 90s, with a few mid 90s very
possible, especially across northern Alabama west of the I-65

The upper ridge will shift east of the region for the upcoming
weekend, with weak troughing edging closer. E-SE winds on Thursday
will become more southerly during Friday and the weekend. This will
bring additional and deeper lower level moisture across the region.
This moisture and accompanied daytime heating produced instability
will return chances of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast -
just in time for the weekend. The deeper moisture, along with more
clouds than sun should result in slightly cooler temperatures going
into the weekend. Stayed on a diurnal trend, with higher rain 
chances in the day and lesser at night for Saturday and Sunday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals thru the period with
the exception of some MVFR fog shortly before/around daybreak. Patchy
fog will dissipate by 18/14Z, with a SCT deck of clouds developing
AOA 4kft by midday tomorrow, lingering thru the end of the TAF period
tomorrow evening. 





For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.