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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 212057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
257 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Lower altitude clouds associated with a surge of moisture moving NNE
from the Gulf coast continued along and east of the AL/GA border. 
They earlier produced lower ceilings (mostly MVFR) reductions at Ft 
Payne and Scottsboro. Those clouds were generally moving NNE while 
the "line" of clouds drifted slowly to the east. More higher altitude
clouds otherwise were moving across the Tennessee Valley from the 
west; part of a trough extending south of Hudson Bay located upper 
system swinging by. 

Despite the scattered to broken deck of high clouds, some warm air 
advection and what of the sun's long wave radiation to make it to the
ground, highs across the area have risen into the upper 50s and 
lower 60s. A few mid 60s may be realized over the next hour or so, 
before the usual evening cooling commences.

A strong but dry cold front will be moving across the Valley during
the night time. This front, now moving across areas from NW Ohio, to
near the Missouri Bootheel and SE Oklahoma was being pushed southward
by a chilly Canadian high moving to the southeast from Saskatchewan
the the MT/ND border. The front should reach far NW Alabama around
8-9PM, greater Huntsville area before midnight, and SE of Ft Payne by
2AM. SW winds will become northerly behind the front. With little
moisture before/after the front, no rain is expected. Colder air
behind the front will take a bit to arrive, but will make for a cold
predawn of Wednesday, with lows falling into the lower and mid 30s.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday night) 
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

The busiest travel day of the year will feature mostly sunny skies 
but colder conditions in the wake of the frontal passage. After mild 
conditions today, highs on Wednesday will barely reach the lower 
50s. NW winds will increase into the 5-15 mph range, making for 
almost "brisk" conditions in comparison to today. With colder air 
more entrenched, another cold night Wednesday night with lows in the 
upper 20s and lower 30s. 

Thanksgiving 2017 will warm up a tad more Wed, with highs warming 
into the mid 50s. Normal high temperatures for reference on the 23rd 
are around 61 in Huntsville and 60 at Muscle Shoals.

After a chilly Thursday night with lows around freezing, dry weather 
will continue for the Friday and Saturday time frame. Highs on Friday 
should rise near 60, and the lower 60s during Saturday. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

This weekend, we can be thankful for the lingering dry and cool 
conditions, especially if traveling. Southerly flow at the sfc will 
help Saturday's high temps warm up towards 60 degrees. Northwesterly 
flow aloft will persist as a ridge remains anchored across much of 
the western half of the U.S and a broad trough across the eastern 
half. A shortwave will slide southeast out of the Northern Plains 
Friday night into Saturday as the sfc low stays north of the Great 
Lakes. The associated cold front will sweep into the area by Saturday
afternoon. The front will bring an increase in cloud cover but no 
rainfall. Temps will fall into the mid 30s Saturday night with cold 
air advection and cloud cover moving back out. Broad sfc high 
pressure building into the region will tighten the pressure gradient 
to increase CAA on Sunday and with northwesterly flow aloft still in 
place, Sunday's high temps will be around 10 degrees cooler than 
Saturday. Look for highs in the lower 50s and overnight lows in the 
upper 20s/lower 30s. On Monday, southeasterly winds return as the sfc
high and ridge shift a little eastward, but will not see a big 
improvement in temps. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions should continue across the TAF sites. An area of
stratus moving northward from the Gulf across eastern Alabama should
remain east of the KHSV terminal into the evening. Otherwise periods
of high clouds will continue. A dry cold front arcing from north and
central Indiana, to near St Louis and Amarillo will move to the 
southeast, moving across the region tonight. No weather of
consequence is expected, except that S-SW winds will become NW 
after the front passes. Northwest winds should increase into the 
10-20 kt by late Wednesday morning. 





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at weather.gov/huntsville.