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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 242339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
639 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A weak front is moving through the region this afternoon, serving as
a focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of 19:30z,
modest forcing across the area and some weak CINH has suppressed 
much of this activity. However, over the next 2-3 hours, do expect to
see an uptick in convection, thanks to an axis of more unstable air 
(SBCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg and MLCAPE up 1500 J/kg) across 
Northeast Alabama. This thermodynamic environment and forcing along 
the boundary should be enough to generate a few strong to marginally 
severe storms in a 20-23z window along this feature. Rain/thunder 
chances will decrease steadily by sunset as the boundary pushes into 

In wake of this boundary, a more stable air mass will filter into 
the Tennessee Valley region. With drier air helping to erode the 
remaining cloud cover, a mostly clear to partly cloudy night is
expected after midnight. Lows will bottom out in the upper 60s 
across much of the valley. 

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Zonal flow aloft will develop on Tuesday and Wednesday across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with high pressure at the surface trying
to build in from the south and east. More westerly flow on Tuesday
will help to mitigate our rain/thunder chances on Tuesday, and we 
may be looking at a mostly dry forecast save for an isolated 
diurnally driven storm or two -- along with a partly sunny day. A 
weak shortwave that will pass through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday
night and into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. This feature will 
serve to provide sufficient lift for potentially another round of 
scattered showers and storms. The denser cloud cover on Wednesday 
may help keep temperatures in check and we may be looking at highs in
the mid 80s. The shower and thunderstorm activity should wane by 
Wednesday evening and we should be transiting to a drier forecast as 
highs pressure begins to build in late this week. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

High pressure will attempt to build back into the Tennessee Valley
region Thursday and Friday into the weekend. Due to the strength of
the ridge and the subsidence from it, expect a drier trend to develop
as diurnal convection is suppressed, especially Thursday and Friday.  
There will be enough moisture underneath the ridge to allow for
isolated to perhaps widely scattered convection each day -- but this
activity will to tied to the daylight should diminish after sunset.
Thus, generally expect most locations to remain dry. As the high gets
shifts into Texas and the Southern Plains region late in the 
forecast period, it's possible a weak area of low pressure from the 
Gulf squeezes north into Alabama. This feature could provide a 
slightly better chances for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, 
though the details of this remain much more uncertain. Otherwise, 
temperatures will remain close to seasonable levels for late June, 
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VFR conds are xpcted well into Tue, as a weak frontal boundary moves
ewd across the region late tonight. Mid/high clouds will gen prevail
into the daytime hrs Tue, as drier air begins to filter into the 
area in the wake of the frontal passage. West winds around 10kt will 
also become light/var later this evening before increasing near 7kt 
Tue morning.





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