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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Joaquin Valley, CA (HNX)

FXUS66 KHNX 162043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
143 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Near to slightly above normal temperatures through the
forecast with the possibility of thunderstorms over the Sierra
Nevada each afternoon and evening through next week.


.DISCUSSION...An upper trough continues to impact California this
afternoon...providing enough instability over the Sierra Nevada to
generate showers. Showers were beginning to develop over the
Sierra Crest this afternoon mainly in Fresno County...but this
activity is expected to expand in coverage into the evening hours.
The high res ARW...NMM...and the HRRR all indicate that activity
will generally be concentrated from Sequoia National Park

Something of note...snow levels look to be right around 13,500 to
14,000 feet...so if showers form over the very high
Sierra...expect snow flurries. Snow in August is not
uncommon...but can catch hikers off guard.

With regards to the unseasonably cool temperatures we have been
experiencing this week...today looks to be the last day of below
normal temperatures. Upper level high pressure over the Eastern
Pacific will begin to build slowly east over
California...resulting in a warming trend across the area.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal through the
weekend with little change in the upper level pattern. Showers 
and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening over
the Sierra Nevada through the weekend.

On Sunday an upper low will form off the central California
coast bringing a subtle cooling trend. In addition to
cooling...there will likely be an increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage over the Sierra Nevada...possibly as far
south as the Kern mountains and even the desert. We will continue
to watch this closely as there are still subtle differences with
the location and movement of the upper low.

We heard there is a big event on Monday...the eclipse! As of
now... it looks like much of the area will see mostly sunny
skies...so viewing looks good at the moment. We will continue to
monitor the cloud cover forecast closely and update accordingly.


VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior during 
the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...