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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Joaquin Valley, CA (HNX)

FXUS66 KHNX 140113 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
513 PM PST Wed Dec 13 2017

...Updated Air Quality section...

High pressure will keep skies mostly clear and high temperatures 
will remain above normal. Overnight, San Joaquin Valley haze and 
patchy fog/frost will be possible.


Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the weather 
regime across the region save a few weak disturbances from the 
north pushing through on the eastward periphery of the ridging. 
Current satellite imagery shows a weak boundary/disturbance
between strong surface high pressure over Nevada and Idaho moving
south/southwest into the region through central California. This
configuration may bring breezy to gusty east/northeast winds as 
this boundary pushes through this evening especially to the 
Yosemite area, east-west running canyons, and even higher 
elevations of the Sierras. This surface high over Nevada also sets
up a larger offshore pressure gradient which will also keep the 
region dry. 

These continued dry conditions has also prompted the extending of
the Red Flag Warning for the Sierra and Kern County mountain areas
above 4000 feet from Tulare County southward through Friday
evening. Relative humidities in many of these areas have 
continued to drop into the single digits. This coupled with the 
breezy to gusty winds this evening into tonight will exacerbate 
the dangerous fire weather conditions.

Precipitation is still unexpected through the next week, the
models continue to push back a hint of active weather towards the
end of the model runs, however this forecaster is less optimistic
than the models have been. With this semi-permanent ridge set up 
over the west coast in December, past years with similar set ups
usually don't bode well for the precipitation chances until just
after the New Year. It remains to be seen if this will be the case
this year. So far it seems to be holding true. 


Widespread MVFR visibility in haze and mist will persist in the San 
Joaquin Valley, with areas of IFR and local LIFR/VLIFR in fog 
developing after 06z through 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will 
prevail over the central CA interior during the next 24 hours. 


On Thursday December 14 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in 
Fresno... Kern... Kings... and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove 
Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... 
Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PST Friday CAZ295>297.