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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Joaquin Valley, CA (HNX)

                            
635 
FXUS66 KHNX 251247
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
447 AM PST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and temperatures near normal today will be followed 
by a cold front arriving Monday and bringing precipitation to the 
region. Another storm system is forecast to impact our area late 
Wednesday night and continue through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures this morning are running a few to several degrees 
above this time yesterday across our area. Much of the SJ Valley 
remains above freezing so far, but many areas are expected to dip
to slightly below freezing through early morning and the freeze
warning remains in effect. Temperatures will recover nicely today
and highs should top out near climo this afternoon under mainly
sunny skies. 

Models remain consistent with the next approaching trough which
drops south through northern tonight and early Monday, then closes
off a low that slides along the coast Monday night and swings
inland across extreme southern CA by Tuesday. QPF is lower with
this system than our most recent storm and just small amounts of
snow are predicted to fall as low as the upper foothill areas
Monday into early Tuesday. Accumulations of just a few inches are
expected higher up into the Sierra zones. Current progs suggest 
the possibility of some frozen precip in the Kern County mountains
by Monday evening into Tuesday morning which could affect travel
there and may warrant a Winter Weather Advisory. Though not
expected to be a major precipitation producer, we could see as
much as a couple of tenths of an inch of rain in the Valley Monday
into early Tuesday.

Weak ridging behind the exiting system by early Wednesday will
return dry weather with temps near freezing early Wednesday
morning. The next more significant developing storm system
still has some strength and timing differences amongst the model
solutions, but looks to beginning spreading precipitation south
into our area by Wednesday night through Thursday. The main upper
low is progged to swing inland along the US northwest coast Friday
and maintain a broad cyclonic flow across our area. Weak 
disturbances in the flow will maintain cool and unsettled 
conditions through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across the Central CA Interior until 10Z 
Monday. Afterward, increasing cloud cover could produce possible 
MVFR ceilings over the San Joaquin Valley while generating local IFR 
conditions over the Sierra Nevada.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM PST this morning CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford