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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Joaquin Valley, CA (HNX)

FXUS66 KHNX 091142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
342 AM PST Sun Dec 9 2018

Dry weather, light winds and seasonable temperatures will prevail
through the end of the weekend as high pressure continues to 
build over the region. Conditions will be favorable for Tule Fog 
development across the San Joaquin Valley. An upper trough will 
move in on Monday bringing a slight chance of some light 
precipitation through Tuesday morning. 


Fog began forming early across the valley during the evening 
especially towards the Merced area. However fog has since lifted 
into a low cloud deck with improving visibility being reported. 
Radar shows low level winds out of the SE 10-15kt with a ridge 
axis shifting east of the sierra. A disturbance and subtropical 
moisture will be approaching central CA this morning. This should 
also mitigate the dense fog threat this morning. Confidence is low
in the fog forecast for tonight as a trough moves into N CA, 
there will be increasing high clouds and stronger onshore flow and 
gradients across central CA. 

The next weather system splits as it moves onshore through Ncal.
Thus will a weaker through with limited moisture and 
precipitation amounts expected will be on the light side. The 
precipitation along a front reaches the north sectors Monday 
afternoon, pushing south into the S Valley Monday night. Winds 
pick up and turn N behind the front with low level moisture piling 
up along the Tehachapi Mountains into Tuesday morning. Higher 
resolution NAM shows precipitation amounts over Kern county and 
Tehachapis through Tuesday morning with snow level near 5kft. 

Another weather system quickly follows through Pac NW Tuesday 
night, moving into the Great Basin Wednesday. Central CA remains
under the influence of anticyclone over the East Pacific. Thus 
fog threat for the SJV will remain high starting Wednesday. The 
pattern remains active with two systems affecting the West coast 
next weekend. However do not have a lot of confidence since model 
timing is poor at the moment. 


In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of fog and low clouds will develop 
again tonight, mainly mainly LIFR in fog during 09z-19z. After 19Z 
Sun, visibility is expected to improve with areas of MVFR. 
Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA 
interior for the next 24 hours.


On Sunday December 9 2018... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings...
Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning CAZ089>092.