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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Joaquin Valley, CA (HNX)

                            
509 
FXUS66 KHNX 222127
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
227 PM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring above normal temperatures
through midweek. Dry conditions will prevail though there is a 
slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra 
crest Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak shortwave trough is moving over the Pacific Northwest
today. The only effect will be to bring a few high clouds across
the region this afternoon and evening. Temperatures this afternoon
are running 2 to 5 degrees from 24 hours ago, resulting in highs 
around 10-15 degrees above climatological norms for late April.
Temperatures are expected to edge up another degree or two Monday
then little changes in temperatures are expected through midweek
as an upper low drops down offshore of the west coast and an 
upper ridge remains over the western CONUS. Slight chance POPs 
remain over the Sierra crest beginning Tuesday as isolated showers
and thunderstorms could develop with daytime heating.

A fair amount of uncertainty remains for the end of the week into
the weekend regarding the track of the offshore low. Models
continue to have slightly different solutions from run to run,
with the ECMWF still being the farthest west and north, and the
GFS being a bit farther south and more progressive. All the models
are trying to bring the low center inland somewhere between 
Oregon and central California sometime between Friday night and
Saturday afternoon. At this point, it does not look like it has a
lot of moisture, so any chance of precipitation remains low. The
position as it comes inland, however, will have an impact on how
much cooling we get and how soon the cooling occurs. Made very
little change to the forecast due to this uncertainty. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during 
the next 24 hours.  

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Bean
avn/fw...Andersen
synopsis...Bean

weather.gov/hanford