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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

FXUS10 KWNH 161838

Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid Jul 16/1200 UTC thru Jul 20/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry...
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

The focus in the short term period is on Post-Tropical Cyclone
Barry, which is located across east central MO. Both the 12z
NAM/GFS are similar with the track of the system as it moves
across the OH Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic by 19/00z.
This is general agreement with the 12z ECMWF/00z ECMWF ensemble
mean and the 12z GEFS mean positions.

Building mid level heights are expected across much of the CONUS
with ridging extending from the Northeast back into the Southwest
states. There are some differences in how models handle the energy
in the northern stream as it crosses the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains. The 12z GFS is probably too fast with the energy
as it crosses south central Canada, which will have some impact
concerning the potential placement of MCS development. Since the
convective coverage will likely be determined by mesoscale
forcing, the synoptic scale features are close enough for a
general model blend.

Model trends at
500 mb forecasts at