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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

FXHW01 KWNH 161211

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 17 2019 - 00Z Wed Jul 24 2019

A strong upper high to the north of the region will weaken and
wobble eastward this week, steering a more southern upper low by
the 50th state Tuesday into Wednesday while a more poleward upper
low passes north of the archipelago thereafter Thursday into
Friday before settling southward to the north of Maui this weekend
into early next week.  The second upper low appears to guide the
remains of Tropical Depression 04E by the islands late Thursday
into Friday.  The 06z GFS is somewhat east of the other guidance
with the second upper low.  The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean implied
either pathway is possible so a compromise of the available
guidance appears best with this second feature.  Another low-level
disturbance in the trade wind flow, southwest of Mexico currently,
approaches the Island of Hawai'i next Tuesday.  Periods of
enhanced showers and trades are expected during the next week in
association with any of these features.