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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

FXHW01 KWNH 191209

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Valid 00Z Mon May 20 2019 - 00Z Mon May 27 2019

Models/ensembles show good consensus that upper-level ridging
should generally remain dominant across Hawaii through the week. A
surface high north of the state is expected to gradually shift
eastward over the next few days as an upper-level trough amplifies
well to the northwest. A surface front associated with this trough
is forecast to stall several hundred miles west of Hawaii by mid
to late week, perhaps slowly sagging southeast toward the state as
it washes out. The combination of these factors will allow
low-level flow to veer to east-southeasterly with a gradual
increase in moisture. By next weekend, models/ensemble show good
consensus that the upper trough should shear eastward well north
of the state, with Hawaii remaining  entrenched beneath the upper
ridge. This pattern will keep isolated to scattered showers in
place daily through the week.