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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 242102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM [This afternoon through Tuesday]... 
Showers and thunderstorms are very gradually dissipating 
offshore. A meso high offshore has created a tight pressure 
gradient along the coast and we have seen windy conditions the 
past few hours as a result. These winds will gradually subside 
this evening. A second area of showers and thunderstorms is 
occurring from near CLL and back to the southwest into south-
central Texas. These are slowly moving south- southeast and will 
continue to affect far west areas for the next few hours. Between 
the two areas of showers and storms we did manage to see max temps
rise into the mid 80s. 

On Tuesday, expect the best coverage of showers and storms to be 
across the northern half of SE TX in response to another upper level 
disturbance. With heating, we will likely see scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms across the southern half of the area. Max 
temps inland will be close to 90 with a more typical diurnal pattern 
of convective activity expected. LW


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Monday]...
This somewhat active pattern of late should be taking a more quiet
turn as surface high pressure builds in from the east and ridge a-
loft develops over the region in the wake of these latest longwave
trofs. Still cannot rule out some isolated mainly afternoon storms 
Weds/Thurs along the seabreeze. Highs are expected to rebound back
into the lower/mid 90s for this time frame. Long-range guidance is
keeping with the idea of an inverted upper trof/weakness area bet-
ween the ridges over the northern Gulf by the weekend. While there
are some discrepancies with the placement of the axis of this trof,
slightly increased rain chances for SE TX by Fri on into the week-
end. 41


Strong/gusty winds have remained in place across the marine waters
this afternoon in the wake of the storms earlier this morning. Did
keep Small Craft Caution Advisories in place for the bays until 10
PM tonight...then extending it until early Tues morning across the
coastal waters. We will have to keep an eye on things for tomorrow
as models continue to hint at the possibility of additional storms
by the afternoon. However, by tomorrow night/early Weds, we should
be seeing an overall decrease with winds/seas as high pressure be-
gins to build in from the east. With this high lingering in/around
the northern Gulf, light to moderate onshore winds to prevail with
decreased seas (likely ranging from 2 to 4 ft) through the rest of
the week. 41


College Station (CLL)      74  89  75  93  73 /  20  40  40  10   0 
Houston (IAH)              76  90  78  94  75 /  30  40  20  10   0 
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  80  91  81 /  20  30  10  10   0 


TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the 
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     through late tonight for the following zones: Galveston 
     Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.