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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 250506
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Despite some forcing and instability that could have been overcome
by that forcing, that apparently has not happened, and so have
largely stripped thunder and all but some fleeting shower
references tonight.

Forecast is quickly condensing to covering the improvement from
IFR/MVFR to VFR. Other than a brief dip back down to or near IFR
around sunrise, this should occur in a relatively straightforward
manner by mid-day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019/...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper low over central Texas. 
00Z upper level analysis has a strong nearly 100kt jet core coming
into the area with the best divergence ahead of it where there 
has been strong/severe convection. There is still some strong 
divergence aloft that should move over SE Texas tonight but 
capping has held fairly strong and instability has decreased quite
a bit with loss of heating. The boundary layer has also become 
more turned over with ongoing and previous convection. There is 
still some chance at some storms through the morning hours but the
threat looks fairly small at this point. There might be enough 
lift along a front that pushes through afternoon midnight to 
trigger some convection so forecast will have some chances for 
storms continuing. HRRR trends along with WRF show this 
possibility. Again any storms that do form may become strong but 
should remain below severe limits. After the storms tonight, 
tomorrow looks fairly pleasant with northwest winds and drier air 
moving into the region.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  80  60  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)          81  62  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)        79  68  80  68  80 /  20   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning 
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs