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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200227
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
927 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Seeing the typical lull in precip activity this evening, but am
expecting some isolated precip to start developing again in the 
next 2-5 hours offshore. Hires guidance is showing increasing 
coverage of shra/tstms near the Galveston Bay area and offshore as
we head into sunrise and the morning hours compliments of pooling
2.2-2.4" PW's and some llvl speed & directional convergence. 
Precip should expand inland w/ heating and there will probably be 
some residual boundaries from today's cells and possibly some 
moving in from Louisiana laying around to initially focus upon. 
Incorporated some of this thinking into the evening update, but 
overall little noticeable changes were made. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/ 
AVIATION... 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will end within the next hou 
or so with skies clearing and VFR conditions expected for most of 
the night. PW values recharge by morning and reach 2.00 inches by 
12z and peak around 18z between 2.10 and 2.20 inches. Convective 
temperatures are between 90-92 degrees so another active day is 
expected with shra/tsra redeveloping near the coast by morning and
spreading inland with heating. Added a Prob30 for KIAH for the 
afternoon. Leaned toward a blend of the ARW/GFS and TT WRF for 
precip chances on Tuesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  99  76  98  76 /  20  20   0  10   0 
Houston (IAH)              77  95  78  95  78 /  20  50   0  20  10 
Galveston (GLS)            83  92  83  92  83 /  40  60  10  30  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$