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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 181808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
108 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Warm drier air and westerly winds spreading across in the very 
short term with gusty northwest winds soon to follow as cold front
pushes through mid afternoon. Will see some showers across the
northern sites and will continue with VCSH for CXO/UTS/CLL through
the afternoon though shorter for CLL. The brief IFR ceilings
should be ending abruptly with the westerly winds and then a
period of MVFR ceilings from northwest to east across the area as
the wrap around moisture swings through this afternoon/early
evening. Winds inland should relax between 02-04z then resume
early 12-15z NW15-25g20-30kt Friday as nose of the CAA pushes 
down over the area with VFR.



Altered the SCA to extend it though will likely see a period of
sub SCA this afternoon before the front pushes off. Seas building
to 8-10 feet well offshore overnight. Will need to keep a close
eye on the winds after 10z as some gusts in excess of gale are
possible and may even reach 40+ knots. May need to go with a short
lived gale warning for the far coastal waters.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/ 


The impacts of our overnight storm complex are just about over,
though Chambers County recently saw a CG lightning strike from 
storms to the east, even though it's stopped raining there. But,
as that complex pulls away, satellite shows that the sky is
scattering out pretty effectively. Despite getting to some decent
sun by mid-day, it's probably too late to reach previously
forecasted highs, so have gone ahead and pulled those down to
something that better tracks with observations and expected
conditions. Depending on how quickly the sky clears and how much
energy needs to be put into evaporating moisture from the
overnight rain, this still may not be quite enough.

Beyond these changes, the big feature of the weather for the rest
of the day will be the development of gusty northwest winds. We'll
be close to the wind advisory threshold on the barrier islands and
on the western edge of our area, but for now the forecast winds
aren't quite high enough to justify an advisory. If we see winds
ramping up more strongly than expected, a short-fuse wind advisory
may be needed.


College Station (CLL)      75  50  73  48  81 / 100   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              78  54  74  50  80 / 100   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            76  54  74  58  75 / 100   0   0   0   0 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for the following 
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.