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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 252305
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR (and for many, SKC) throughout. Gusty WNW/NW winds from today
will quiet down very quickly this evening. They'll stay light 
until picking back up to around 10 knots from the NE mid-morning 
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
A beautiful day across the region as southeast Texas falls between
this morning's eastern-exiting front over the Gulf and an
approaching Southern Plains (dry) frontal boundary. The mid to
upper trough axis is now to the east of the state opening up full
column northwest flow. Areawide temperatures have reached the 
lower 80s with another hour or so of heating to allow a few 
sites to possibly reach middle 80 F maximum temperatures.
Tomorrow's weak front will pass across through the morning 
daytime hours and veer slightly stronger winds more north to 
northeast through the afternoon. A drier reinforcement of post-
frontal air will ensure another sunny day with similar warmth; 
likely lower to middle 80 F maximum temperatures. Tranquil 
overnight conditions where minimum temperatures will parallel late
April standard mean lower 60s. 

Tomorrrow's frontal passage may be the last of the season as upper  
level ridging begins to build in from the south through early next 
week. A zonal weekend flow pattern will transition to Gulf ridging
by Tuesday. A closed off low over southern CA will eject northeast 
as an open wave shortwave trough and weaken across the Rockies
through Tuesday. The surface reflection of a western Texas low 
will develop an emanating northern Texas mid-week boundary that 
never seems to make it much south. Thus, with the mid level 
boundary laying somewhere in the Red River Valley region, next 
week's convection will focus across northern Texas. Southeast 
Texas will be mildly capped with reachable afternoon low to mid 80
convective temperatures from Tuesday on out. The late period 
pattern appears to be one of early day streamer showers focused 
over the southern and western CWA then, with late AM into early 
afternoon heating, more central and northern CWA shower and 
thunderstorm coverage each subsequent work week day. Humidity will
be on the rise and days will certainly become very "summer-like" 
for us by this time next week. Much more humid mornings in the 
lower 70s with more muggy afternoons in the 80s, possibly upper 80
maximum temperatures by mid week despite increased lower level 
moisture/more overcast. 31


.MARINE... 
Weak high pressure was located over North Texas with light offshore 
winds. A second cold front will move through the coastal waters early
Friday morning and this will help to reinforce the offshore flow. The 
high will push east Friday night and onshore winds will return. Light 
onshore winds will prevail Saturday as the high retreats. The pressure
gradient does start to tighten up Monday night and should see a steady
increase in seas as a persistent southeast fetch develops. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  59  83  59  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)          62  85  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)        68  80  68  80  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...Luchs 
MARINE...43