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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 241554
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1054 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Updated fcst already sent...just insignificant tweaks to match 
obs for the most part. Marine forecaster nudged winds up a touch 
this afternoon. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 
DISCUSSION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
MVFR ceilings and a few areas of patchy fog are now developing 
across several TAF sites. Ceilings are expected to rise to VFR 
later this morning or early tomorrow afternoon. Winds will 
continue from the south at 10-15 knots with higher gusts on 
occasion. Ceilings and visibilites are expected to lower Monday 
night through early Monday morning with possibly areas of fog 
developing across the forecast area. 

MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow will persist today. Areas of sea fog are 
looking increasingly probable tonight through early Monday 
morning, and possibly again Monday evening until the next front 
moves across the coast. Increased northeast winds and building 
seas are expected in the wake of the front through Tuesday 
afternoon. High pressure quickly moves east and onshore winds 
should resume Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the 
work week. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019/ 
DISCUSSION... Ridging over MS/AL with a cold front draped down 
across OK to near Amarillo. A shortwave trough passed over SETX 
during the evening/early morning hours and now it appears weak 
ridging taking hold. Patchy fog developing over the southwestern 
counties where lower/mid level cloud deck hasn't blanketed. WAA 
pattern should continue to expand the cloud deck north and 
northeastward early this morning. Mixing should help scatter out 
the deck with skies becoming partly cloudy late this morning and 
afternoon. Temperatures should surpass yesterday's readings and 
upper 70s inland and lower 70s coast look quite reachable. 
Wouldn't be shocked if we had a few sites hit the 80 degree mark. 
Rain chances looking slim and primarily in the form of a light 
shower or sprinkle in the west this morning and then shifting 
eastward this afternoon. Tonight the cold front sags southeastward
and will help to relax the winds over SETX. The frontal boundary 
may get a little more active with showers and thunderstorms mainly
focused north of the CWA. Near the coast will probably see some 
patchy fog develop and may spread into the coastal counties. The 
front continues to move south on Monday nearing the College 
Station/Huntsville areas around 1 pm and then nearing the I69 
corridor around 6 pm. Cap weakens but may be enough to curtail the
rain chances and so will continue with low end rain chances along
the frontal boundary...pushing off the coast midnight to 3 am. 
Drier air will nose down across the area but Tuesday afternoon 
temperatures only running 2-5 degrees cooler with the change of 
airmass. High pressure sets up show over the Tuesday 
night/Wednesday shifting east and setting the stage for return 
flow Thursday morning. Subtropical jet arcing in across northern 
Mexico will bring disturbances to the region and forecast 
confidence drops as timing variations between models increases. In
general the pattern looks to be turning wetter with moisture 
pooling into/over the region with ripples tracking across the area
Friday and Saturday. A cold front should eventually drop south 
into the area Saturday night or Sunday boosting rain chances and 
cooling down the afternoon highs with increased cloud cover.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      80  62  77  53  72 /  20  10  20  10   0 
Houston (IAH)              80  63  78  56  75 /  20  10  20  10   0 
Galveston (GLS)            74  64  72  60  69 /  10  10  10  20   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$