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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192217
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
While radar looks fairly quiet, obs/cameras are indicating that we
are seeing some rather damp/misty/drizzly/foggy weather across the
CWA this afternoon. The bulk of the more organized showers are re-
maining NW and E of the region so far. We could get one more round
of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms as the surface coastal
low moves up from the Gulf and across the area later this evening.
Clearing/cooler conditions on tap after midnight when this system/
associated rains move out to the NE. 

This brief break from the cloudy/unsettled weather (early Weds) is
expected to be just that. This very progressive weather pattern we
have been in will be gearing up once again Weds night with the re-
turn of slightly deeper moisture as the next coastal low begins to
form over the Lower TX coast. The persistent/strong SW winds aloft
will be drawing additional clouds/moisture across the area through
the end of the week...with rain chances increasing once again with
the passage of embedded upper level disturbances. Showers/thunder-
storm development should be most active late Fri into Sat with on-
shore winds strengthening ahead of the next cold front progged for
Sat afternoon. Per extended models...the next repeat of this cycle
could start late Sun. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of sea fog will linger this evening until a low pressure area 
near the coast moves off to the northeast and winds swing back 
around to the northwest. A coastal flood advsy remains in effect 
until early evening for the Bolivar area where wave run up and high 
tide levels possibly cause some overwash at HWY 87/124. Swells will 
be slower to fall offshore so will be extending the small craft 
advisory there. 

Otherwise, still looking at a complex marine forecast this week. 
Another area of low pressure will develop off Deep South Texas on 
Thursday and this feature will take a similar track as today's and 
approach SE TX by late afternoon. Warmer and more moist air will 
flow over the cooler shelf waters and produce another threat of sea 
fog Thursday night-Sat afternoon until the next front pushes 
through.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      41  62  44  56  52 /  30  10  30  50  50 
Houston (IAH)              48  66  49  59  56 /  40  10  50  60  50 
Galveston (GLS)            53  62  57  64  63 /  40  20  50  60  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the 
     following zones: Chambers...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CST this evening 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the 
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99