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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 160853
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

An extremely tricky forecast in the short term as mesoscale
details will wreak havoc on the larger scale setup for at least
the next 36 hours. In general, the environment is not very
conducive for severe and heavy rain threats, but a better
environment farther north may birth clusters of strong to severe
storms that will bring us at least a marginal threat for damaging
winds primarily in multiple rounds.

In the extended period, rain chances look to diminish towards the
middle and late week ahead, as focus for higher temperatures and
humidity emerge towards the middle and later portions of the week
ahead.



.SHORT TERM [Through Monday]...

Let's start with the one place there is some actual certainty in
the short term forecast...what's happening now. Radar and
satellite show an organized, but slowly weakening and finally
beginning a broad turn to the right as suggested by CAM guidance.
Meanwhile, at the coast, streamer showers are beginning over the
Gulf and pushing a county or two onshore before dissipating.

GOES-East TPW product shows a plume of high moisture air with
precipitable water pushing two inches, though cloud cover makes
determining the precise extent of this plume impossible.
Regardless, this will support the continued development of
streamer showers on the onshore flow, with a preference for that
deepest moisture channel.

Though the MCS is slowly weakening, it is beginning to finally
make a turn right towards SE Texas. Forecast soundings for
Huntsville show that the low level environment is not terribly
stable, but nor is it terribly conducive for sustaining the MCS.
So, without selling out hard, I gradually paint, and connect the
highest PoPs from the onshore flow and from remnants of the MCS
coming down from the north around 14 or 15Z. By now, uncertainty
is already beginning to climb.

In general, think it's reasonable that we'll see multiple rounds 
of showers and storms possible through tonight and into tomorrow 
morning - the TTU-WRF may not have the worst idea in developing 
and swinging through two to three different MCSs through the area 
while the upper shortwave trough works across Oklahoma. Shear will
be lousy, and so I'm very much in agreement with SPC that the 
severe threat will be marginal for most, with a small area of 
higher potential at our northern edge. I don't think the synoptic 
environment is very supportive at all, but if an MCS riding a 
healthy/balanced cold pool can come out of the better environment 
farther north, it will carry some decreasing severe potential 
before it can weaken in the lesser environment in our area. DCAPE 
values are largely around or above 1000 J/Kg with small inverted-V
profiles, so damaging straight-line winds appear to be the 
primary threat as the updrafts collapse in the strongest storms. 
Hail and tornado threat will be smaller threats relative to the 
damaging wind potential.

I try to carry out a multiple round scenario, with brief lulls in
PoPs followed by another spike as the next round comes in. I also
follow a similar trend with cloud cover, but in general the 
clouds and rain should keep temperatures for today and tomorrow 
suppressed a handful of degrees from what we saw yesterday.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...

South to southeast winds will persist through the period as
surface high pressure remains centered in/around the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula area. The best chance 
of rain looks to be on Tuesday as another possible impulse/
disturbance moves across the area. Cannot totally rule out
possible mainly daytime shower/thunderstorm development for
the remainder of the week as much of the area remains on the
northern fringes of upper level ridging, but think that a
majority of the area should stay on the dry side. Warming
temperatures still look like a good bet with mid to upper 
90s expected for afternoon highs, and low temperatures might
be struggling to fall under 80 degrees at some spots. Heat 
index values could be peaking at or above 105 degrees for
several days, and precautions should be taken for heat 
safety. Currently showing a slight increase in rain chances 
next weekend, and this would shave a couple degrees off the
afternoon high temperatures. 42

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR for a few more hours then the ubiquitous patchy MVFR ceilings
develop mainly after 9-12z window around 2500 ft. Showers
spreading into the coastal sites early in the morning and most
sites will be looking at VCSH conditions morning then by late
morning VCTS for the CXO area southward. Prob30 for most of the
terminals from UTS to IAH to LBX in the 17-22z window as s/w moves
in from the west. Quickly left with CI and possibly some nocturnal
SC. Some guidance is much more bullish in developing an MCS that
drives southeastward through the region Sunday night/early Monday.
Have not bitten off on those solutions yet. Mesoscale features
over N TX/NE TX may help focus storms there. The forecast could
change significantly in the coming 18 hours. 
45

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas are right on the edge of the small craft advisory
threshold - and while a good number of the obs are coming in
below, we're seeing enough sustained wind and wind gusts above 20
knots that I'd prefer to leave the advisory in place. Once winds
do come down below the advisory threshold, SCEC conditions look
probable for large chunks, perhaps even the majority, of the next
several days.

In addition, the persistent and strong onshore flow will keep
strong rip currents in place - there were 8 reported rip current 
rescues by Galveston Beach Patrol - and elevated tides may cause
minor issues in vulnerable spots right along the coast on
Galveston Island and the Bolivar Peninsula. These threats may ease
(very) slowly into the work week as winds back off modestly.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  91  75  91  75  92 /  60  30  50  20  30 
Houston (IAH)          92  77  91  77  92 /  50  30  50  20  30 
Galveston (GLS)        88  80  88  81  89 /  30  40  30  20  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for 
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM CDT this morning 
     through Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal 
     waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 
     NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 
     20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 
     20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...42
AVIATION...45 
MARINE...Luchs