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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 162059
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
359 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Low-level moisture will continue to increase tonight as the gusty
onshore flow remains in place. Given the strong WAA, it would not
be too surprising if isolated showers did manage to develop main-
ly over our far SW coastal zones (from Edna to Lake Jackson) late
tonight/early Weds morning. 

Models are still in agreement with the push of the main upper low
(and its associated cold front) across SE TX from late Weds night
into early Thurs morning. Out ahead of this system, for Weds day,
rain chances will be limited by the cap despite the daytime heat-
ing/possible weak disturbances aloft. During this time frame, the
highest POPs will be over the W/NW portions of the CWA (where the
cap is expected to be slightly weaker). However, by Weds evening,
rain chance will be on the rise (from the W/NW) with the develop-
ment of more organized showers/thunderstorms (with the main upper
trof/cold front). Strong lift/increasing wind shear profiles, and
a very favorable jet pattern aloft are all indicating a very good 
possibility of strong to severe storms for Weds night/early Thurs
morning. The higher risk for severe weather will be over our NW/N
counties due to the proximity of the upper trof. SPC's Day 2 Out-
look has more details. 

Cooler/drier weather is on tap for Thurs in the wake of the front
and this air mass is expected to remain in place through Sat. The
next storm system looks to be on track for next Tues/Weds. 41

&&

.MARINE... 
Winds have relaxed slightly but with sunset expect winds to start 
increasing through the evening hours. This moderate onshore flow 
will be building seas and with a longer fetch of stronger winds 
expect seas to build through Wednesday night. SCA starting at 7 pm 
for the Gulf waters but nearshore waters will likely be closer to 10 
pm or midnight. Cold front sweeping offshore Thursday afternoon with 
winds ramping up quickly and will likely see gusts near or over gale.
Strong thunderstorms also possible with the frontal passage.

Tide levels still running around 0.5 to 1.1 foot above normal and 
these should creep up as well...more so for the Gulf facing as runup 
contributes tonight through Thursday morning.  Will need to keep an 
eye on water levels early Wed morning at high tide near High Island 
nearing the 3 foot mark. Tide issues increasing through Wednesday 
night. 

45 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      67  80  63  76  53 /  10  60  90  20   0 
Houston (IAH)              68  79  67  80  55 /  10  50  90  60   0 
Galveston (GLS)            69  75  70  77  62 /  10  30  80  60   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for the 
     following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$