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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 152045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Radar is showing scattered showers and storms forming along a 
stalled frontal boundary per latest surface analysis. This activity 
may develop along the boundary this afternoon and slowly push SW 
into the area from the NE. Most activity will likely exhibit pulse 
tendencies where storms develop, dissipate and a new storm forms on 
another storm's outflow. This should continue through the afternoon 
but once day time heating is lost, activity should end.

Tonight should be relatively clear with light/calm winds. There 
might be some patchy fog but very low confidence at this point. Low 
temperatures should be slightly cooler than they had been but still 
mid/upper 70s and 80s along the coast does not feel cool.

Tomorrow look for high temperatures back into the upper 90s again 
and close to 100F. I imagine heat index values will again get close 
to 108F so we will need to look closer at a heat advisory. 
Thunderstorm chances will remain isolated to along and south of I-10 
mainly but could still be a few showers or storms as far north as 
Conroe. Overall threats remain limited to brief heavy rainfall, 
lightning and gusty winds.



.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Thursday]...

We should be seeing the return to a more typical summer time pattern
for SE TX over the weekend as the upper level ridging that slid back
to the west (at present) tries to build back to the east (across the
Southern Plains) with time. Isolated/widely scattered mainly daytime
activity will be possible along the seabreeze each day...with higher
POPs likely more to the east (where moisture levels will be slightly
higher). Highs to range from the mid/upper 90s inland...lower 90s at
the coast. These elevated rain chances could continue into next week
as seabreeze remain active...perhaps even increasing towards the end
of the week as deeper moisture approaches SE TX via the Western Gulf.



The weak outflow boundary that was over the nearshore water earlier
today looks to have weakened further/moved off to the south. Isolat-
ed thunderstorms over the bays/nearshore waters are expected to mix
out by early this evening...but we could see widely scattered SHRAs
develop over the coastal waters early Fri morning. Otherwise, not a
lot of changes with the going forecast of mainly light/moderate on-
shore winds through the next several days. 41


College Station (CLL)      77 100  77  99  78 /   0  10   0  20   0 
Houston (IAH)              79  97  80  96  81 /  10  10  10  40  10 
Galveston (GLS)            83  90  84  90  85 /  30  50  30  50  10