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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Breezy/gusty conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon and
tonight. The very tight pressure gradient producing this will also
help to fuel the severe weather over NTX and OK this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, will be looking for a return of MVFR CIGS this
evening/overnight for SE TX. The tail end of this next system mov-
ing across the Southern Plains is forecast to move into the region
tomorrow afternoon...and could provide enough lift for isolated to
widely scattered TSRA at that time. Not as much certainty with the
best location(s), so have and will likely go with VCTS for now. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/ 

Southeast Texas is seeing a warm and muggy start to the work week
with 3 AM temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 across much 
of the area. Some of these values are close to record high minimum
values (see Climate section below for some more details). A 
tightening pressure gradient between high pressure off to our east
and deepening low pressure in the southeast Colorado area will 
bring increasingly breezy/gusty winds to much of our area today 
and tonight. Wind advisories might be needed. Today's 
Southern/Central Plains storm system (see SPC's Day 1 Convective 
Outlook and Public Severe Weather Outlook and also WPC's Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for details on expected severe 
thunderstorm/tornado outbreak and heavy rainfall event) will help 
to drag a front into our area on Tuesday. Most Southeast Texas 
locations will stay dry until the front's arrival tomorrow, and 
expect to see best chance of rain/storms across our northern 
counties with this system. This front will also weaken the 
pressure gradient resulting in a lowering of winds (especially 
well inland) as we head on into Tuesday afternoon. Some lingering 
rains are possible Tuesday night across some of our north and 
northeast counties, and expect this to be the area's last best 
chance of rain for the remainder of the week and the upcoming 
weekend as high pressure begins to dominate the region. It will 
become occasionally breezy again from the middle to around the end
of the week when surface high pressure builds into the area from 
the east. Aloft, mid/upper level ridging also works its way 
westward toward the state and helps to bring a rise in high 
temperatures along with near zero rain chances. Our primary 
weather hazard will be the heat, and precautions should be taken 
(especially remembering to never leaving children or pets 
unattended in vehicles) even though heat advisories are not 
anticipated/expected. 42 

CLIMATE...
Some record high minimum temperatures were set again yesterday.
-CLL's low of 77 degrees tied the record set in 1960
-IAH's low of 78 degrees tied the record set in 2017
-HOU's low of 79 degrees set a new record (previous was 78 in 2017)
-GLS's low of 79 degrees was one degree off the record (80 in 2017)

The area could be dealing with near record high minimum temperatures
for the next several days. Here are the records for today and Tuesday.

CLL - For today, 76 degrees (1990) and for Tuesday, 76 degrees (1990)
IAH - For today, 79 degrees (2011) and for Tuesday, 77 degrees (2013)
HOU - For today, 79 degrees (2011) and for Tuesday, 77 degrees (2011)
GLS - For today, 80 degrees (2017) and for Tuesday, 79 degrees (1990)

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      91  75  84  74  92 /  10  10  50  20  10 
Houston (IAH)              90  77  89  77  90 /  10   0  30  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)            85  78  84  79  85 /  10  10  20  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday 
     for the following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday 
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Tuesday evening through 
     Thursday afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     Gale Watch from midnight CDT tonight through late tonight for 
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight CDT 
     tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from 
     Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal 
     waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters 
     from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for 
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$