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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211559
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Warm air advection pattern continues this morning with isentropic
lift and elevated instability supporting showers and a few 
thunderstorms over top drizzle/light rain. Coastal trough is still
off the coast with a broad area low pressure developing on it 
between CRP and 42019 buoy. This pattern should continue today and
tonight with a warm front pushing north tomorrow which will bring
more wet weather to the area. Main changes to the forecast were 
to update PoP/Wx/QPF based on current trends. Also updated T/Td 
trends as there should not be much warming today.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 548 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019/...


.AVIATION...
Low pressure off the lower texas coast will move north today. The
low and associated warm front will produce periods of showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Fcst soundings show some capping
near 700 mb and lapse rates/instability not terribly high so feel
the threat for thunder is low but not zero. Ceilings will lower
throughout the day, transitioning from VFR to IFR by evening with
LIFR expected after 00z. Fcst soundings show drying from the
top/down after 00z and this looks favorable for drizzle between 
03-12z. Surface dew points will warm into the lower/mid 60's after
06z toward the coast and KGLS might have to contend with dense 
sea fog later tonight as well. Lastly, another disturbance on 
Friday morning will produce additional morning storms over mainly 
the eastern half of the CWA and added a VCTS for KIAH, KHOU and 
KGLS after 10z. 43


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  53  50  67  58  69 /  40  30  70  70  60 
Houston (IAH)          57  55  73  66  74 /  80  40  70  50  70 
Galveston (GLS)        62  60  70  65  73 /  80  50  40  30  60 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Friday morning for 
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Overpeck
NEAR TERM...43