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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 200827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Another dry, sunny day is in the works...albeit with much less 
wind than we had yesterday. Surface high pressure moves overhead 
then to the east today allowing for onshore winds to resume. 
Humidity, overnight lows and cloud cover will gradually increase 
into early next week. Low rain chances will re-enter the forecast 

Latest models are in fairly good agreement in regards to our next
wx system (and a bit more progressive in nature compared to past 
days). Trough currently situated off the Pacific NW will dig into 
the Desert SW and northern Mexico then swing ewd across Tx Wednesday
and Thursday. A long fetch of southeast winds will drive PW's 
upward into the 1.6-1.9" range in advance. Looking for a large 
area of showers/tstms to develop across cntl Tx during the day Wed
as large scale lift increases and eventually track ese along a 
frontal boundary across the CWA late Wednesday and Wednesday 
night. Overall setup looks somewhat favorable for some heavy 
rainfall in or near the region...though it's still too early to 
reliably pin down the details & most favorable locations. Precip 
should taper off Thursday as the system exits to the east.  47


With high pressure over the region set to begin moving off to the 
east today, we should be seeing these light offshore winds across 
the coastal waters slowly veer to the S/SE by this afternoon. Not 
expecting any issues for the rest of the weekend even as this on- 
shore flow begins to strengthen Sun/Mon. This tightening pressure 
gradient (in response to the next system moving into the Central/ 
Southern Plains) should produce SCEC/SCA conditions over the near 
and offshore waters as early as Mon afternoon. These elevated sea 
heights/winds are expected to prevail off and on through mid week. 
All of this will be setting the stage for the passage of the next 
cold front...currently forecast to move off the coast Thurs morn- 
ing (accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms). A generally 
moderate offshore flow in the wake of this front will be in place 
the rest of the week. 41


No issues expected with the 12Z TAFS even with the return of S/SE 
winds this afternoon. Moisture will be slow to return to the area 
given how far into the Gulf this dry air mass has moved. VFR con- 
ditions to prevail. 41


College Station (CLL)      78  57  83  63  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              79  57  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            74  65  76  68  77 /   0   0   0   0   0