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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201154
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions will persist early this morning but clouds will
begin to break up by mid morning as high pressure settles over 
central Texas and drier air works into the region. VFR conditions
are expected this afternoon into tonight. Another area of low 
pressure and an associated warm front will approach the area on
Thursday. Ceilings will begin to lower near the coast after 06z
with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings after 09z possible at coastal TAF
sites. Have also introduced some showers near the coast between
09-12z Thursday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Overcast skies and lingering light showers prevailed particularly
across the central and southern portions of the forecast area as 
a cold front moved across the region overnight and early this
morning. 

Area of high pressure and drier air will move into the the area 
during the morning and afternoon hours, limiting shower activity. 
However, model guidance shows low level moisture returning to the 
region this evening as the high pressure quickly moves 
northeastward and another surface low pressure develops over the 
western Gulf of Mexico. Expect shower activity to return across 
the Gulf waters and coastal regions tonight expanding further 
inland overnight. 

The surface low is expected to move towards the lower TX coast 
overnight. Ahead of the low, associated warm front will gradually 
move northward and into the local waters Thursday afternoon and 
then inland Thursday night through Friday morning, increasing low
level moisture and instability. This will ramp up shower and
thunderstorm development across SE TX. Moreover, another upper 
level trough will build across the Rockies Thursday night though 
Friday. As the surface low moves further northward, southerly flow
will continue to transport warm moist air across the region 
Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning, maintaining the 
wet and unstable weather pattern. The cold front associated to the
upper level trough will then move across SE TX Saturday 
morning/afternoon with drier air trailing behind it and 
encompassing the local area Saturday evening/night. By Monday and 
Tuesday, low level moisture will once again increase, as another 
surface low pressure moves across the lower TX coast and into the 
local coastal waters. Expect another round of showers Monday and 
Tuesday. 

High temperatures will be mainly between the low to upper 60s 
except Friday and Saturday were highs will range between the upper
60s to the mid 70s due to the warm/moist air mass in place. Low
temperatures should range between the low 40s to upper 50s
everyday expect Friday night were lows will be up in the low to
upper 60s. Also, due to surface lows and upper level troughs 
moving in and out of the region, wind direction and speed will 
continue to fluctuate throughout the forecast period. 24

MARINE...

Northwest to north winds will increase early this morning as low 
pressure over Arkansas moves NE and weak high pressure builds into 
Central Texas. A SCEC has been issued for the Gulf waters this 
morning but winds are expected to decrease quickly this afternoon as 
this area of high pressure moves toward the western Gulf. Winds will 
veer to the NE tonight as the high drifts further east and another 
area of low pressure develops off the south Texas coast. This area 
of low pressure will move north and bring a warm front toward the 
coast on Thursday. 

Winds will continue to veer to the SE late Thursday and Friday as 
the low tracks inland across Texas. Warm and moist air flowing over 
the cooler shelf waters will likely yield areas of sea fog possibly 
as early as Thursday night but more likely Fri/Sat. The next cold 
front is expected to cross the coastal waters late Saturday. This 
should end the fog threat as a weak offshore flow develops. Winds 
will veer to the E-NE next Sun/Mon and a fairly stout and persistent 
east wind will prevail for about 24-36 hours. Tide levels could 
again exceed 3.0 feet along the Bolivar peninsula. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      62  43  57  52  70 /   0  20  40  50  70 
Houston (IAH)              65  49  58  55  75 /   0  40  70  60  70 
Galveston (GLS)            63  56  64  61  71 /  10  60  70  50  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CST this morning 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43