000 FXUS64 KHGX 201154 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 554 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 .AVIATION... IFR conditions will persist early this morning but clouds will begin to break up by mid morning as high pressure settles over central Texas and drier air works into the region. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight. Another area of low pressure and an associated warm front will approach the area on Thursday. Ceilings will begin to lower near the coast after 06z with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings after 09z possible at coastal TAF sites. Have also introduced some showers near the coast between 09-12z Thursday. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/ DISCUSSION... Overcast skies and lingering light showers prevailed particularly across the central and southern portions of the forecast area as a cold front moved across the region overnight and early this morning. Area of high pressure and drier air will move into the the area during the morning and afternoon hours, limiting shower activity. However, model guidance shows low level moisture returning to the region this evening as the high pressure quickly moves northeastward and another surface low pressure develops over the western Gulf of Mexico. Expect shower activity to return across the Gulf waters and coastal regions tonight expanding further inland overnight. The surface low is expected to move towards the lower TX coast overnight. Ahead of the low, associated warm front will gradually move northward and into the local waters Thursday afternoon and then inland Thursday night through Friday morning, increasing low level moisture and instability. This will ramp up shower and thunderstorm development across SE TX. Moreover, another upper level trough will build across the Rockies Thursday night though Friday. As the surface low moves further northward, southerly flow will continue to transport warm moist air across the region Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning, maintaining the wet and unstable weather pattern. The cold front associated to the upper level trough will then move across SE TX Saturday morning/afternoon with drier air trailing behind it and encompassing the local area Saturday evening/night. By Monday and Tuesday, low level moisture will once again increase, as another surface low pressure moves across the lower TX coast and into the local coastal waters. Expect another round of showers Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will be mainly between the low to upper 60s except Friday and Saturday were highs will range between the upper 60s to the mid 70s due to the warm/moist air mass in place. Low temperatures should range between the low 40s to upper 50s everyday expect Friday night were lows will be up in the low to upper 60s. Also, due to surface lows and upper level troughs moving in and out of the region, wind direction and speed will continue to fluctuate throughout the forecast period. 24 MARINE... Northwest to north winds will increase early this morning as low pressure over Arkansas moves NE and weak high pressure builds into Central Texas. A SCEC has been issued for the Gulf waters this morning but winds are expected to decrease quickly this afternoon as this area of high pressure moves toward the western Gulf. Winds will veer to the NE tonight as the high drifts further east and another area of low pressure develops off the south Texas coast. This area of low pressure will move north and bring a warm front toward the coast on Thursday. Winds will continue to veer to the SE late Thursday and Friday as the low tracks inland across Texas. Warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters will likely yield areas of sea fog possibly as early as Thursday night but more likely Fri/Sat. The next cold front is expected to cross the coastal waters late Saturday. This should end the fog threat as a weak offshore flow develops. Winds will veer to the E-NE next Sun/Mon and a fairly stout and persistent east wind will prevail for about 24-36 hours. Tide levels could again exceed 3.0 feet along the Bolivar peninsula. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 43 57 52 70 / 0 20 40 50 70 Houston (IAH) 65 49 58 55 75 / 0 40 70 60 70 Galveston (GLS) 63 56 64 61 71 / 10 60 70 50 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...25 Aviation/Marine...43