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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 222339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

For most TAF sites, VFR overnight. Similar to last night, could see
some fog develop at LBX and SGR with low visibilities/ceilings. For
now, just indicating MVFR but will monitor/amend if it looks like
lower restrictions will develop. VFR tomorrow, and expect a cloud
deck around 6000-8000 feet to develop during the day. Look also
for increasing S to SE winds with some locations getting gusts to
around 20 knots. For now, only mentioning VCSH at CLL, but we'll
have to see how things evolve as the day progresses.  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/ 

Surface high pressure over the Sabine River Valley has kept 
regional winds light but its eastward movement into the eastern 
U.S. tomorrow will assist in swinging near to medium term winds 
south to southeast. Clouds will begin to thicken up and lower 
from west to east overnight and return flow off the Gulf will 
strengthen to breezy daytime levels over the weekend. This in 
response to a somewhat shallow Central Plains trough/low on its 
eastward trek from the lees tonight into the Ohio River Valley 
late Sunday. Rain chances will be low with the highest chances for
experiencing any measurable 60 hour rain occuring across the 
northern half of the CWA. Most southeastern Texas communities will
experience an occasional period of light rain or sprinkles...with
northern tier counties experiencing an isolated thunderstorm...
during the daytime hours either Saturday and or Sunday. Increased
lower level moisture will ensure more mild evenings with days 
still warming into the average middle to upper 70s despite the 
mainly overcast skies. 

A weak cold front will move across East Texas during the day Monday.
Areas of rain with isolated thunderstorms may form out ahead of 
this boundary as it slowly moves through during the warmth of the 
day. Other than turning winds north to northeast by Monday evening,
this front will have little to no impact on the day-to-day weather
pattern going into the final week of the month. A spring weather 
pattern that appears to be in-line with the season as Tuesday 
through Thursday's conditions will be nice. Partially cloudy to 
sunny days with onshore winds re-establishing themselves Wednesday
afternoon. Weak Southern Plains upper ridging spells dry days 
with overnights cooling into the low to mid 50s...days warming 
back up into the middle to upper 70s at mid week. A much more 
aggressive Friday (or Saturday?) cold frontal passage will 
significantly increase precipitation chances and introduce the 
mention of possibly strong or severe storms. 31

Winds will remain light out of the southeast tonight, before
increasing tomorrow as high pressure shifts eastward and next 
weather system approaches. In response, expect seas to build 
through the weekend up to 2-4 feet Saturday afternoon into early 
next week. A cold front moves through the region Monday with north
to northeast winds behind the front probably necessitating a SCA.
We could see a few showers pop up Saturday, with rain chances 
increasing for Sunday and Monday as front nears. Evans


College Station (CLL)      54  73  60  78  62 /  20  30  20  20  20 
Houston (IAH)              55  76  61  77  63 /  10  20  10  20  20 
Galveston (GLS)            60  73  64  75  65 /  10  20  10  20  10