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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 202327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR flight category expected for all TAFs with maybe a chance at 
MVFR ceilings by Monday morning as moisture returns. Light/calm 
winds are expected tonight and then increase tomorrow with some 
gusts near 20 knots in the afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 251 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight into Monday/... 
Beautiful weather will remain the norm through the remainder of 
the Easter weekend into early next week under upper ridging. With
seasonably dry air in place expect another cooler than normal 
night although not as cold as last night. Overnight lows should 
dip well into the 50s inland, and hold in the mid 60s along the 
immediate coast, under clear skies and light winds. Will see a 
slight increase in south winds Sunday, although abundant sunshine 
will warm temps well into the 80s away from the coast. 

Low level moisture and increasing clouds will overspread the area
Monday night ahead of progressive mid/upper level low
moving across the southern Rockies early next week. Despite the 
increasing clouds, rain chances should hold off until mid week 
while breezy southeast winds push highs Monday into the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Much more unsettled weather will return by mid week with strong
mid/upper low spreading across the southern Rockies. Models have 
been consistent with general trends, although details remain a 
bit more uncertain. Currently, models maintain a more positive- 
tilt to the trough as upper low begins to open up and shift east 
over central/srn TX Wednesday. Moisture return ahead of this 
feature will be fairly robust with PWs approaching 2 inches by 
midweek. With increasing deep layer flow atop moist/unstable warm
sector, sern TX will be placed in a favorable setup for strong 
deep-moist convection for a couple of days. SPC currently has area
highlighted for SLGT on day 5, although timing and details are 
still a big vague this far out. Regardless, best bet right now is 
for one or two rounds of robust tstms moving across the region 
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Current thinking is activity 
will remain progressive as it moves across the area, although the
potential for isolated severe and/or heavy rainfall remains in 
play and we will have to continue to closely monitor. In the wake 
of this, should see return to sunny skies and warm weather to end
the week/start next weekend with highs returning to the mid 80s 
by next Saturday.


Onshore winds are returning the the area today as high pressure 
moves off to the east, and this flow will be gradually strengthening
for the rest of the weekend and on through the first half of the upcoming
week. A tightening pressure gradient (in response to the next system
moving into the Central/Southern Plains) should produce SCEC/SCA conditions
(winds and/or seas) over the near and offshore waters as early as Sunday
night or Monday morning. Look for showers and thunderstorms to return
to the area around midweek as the next storm system begins to move
eastward across the state and eventually swings a cold front through
the coastal waters. A light to moderate offshore flow can be expected
in the wake of this front to close out the week. 




College Station (CLL)  56  83  62  82  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)          57  81  63  80  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)        65  75  68  74  70 /   0   0   0   0   0