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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 142051
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow] 
Radar imagery shows a few showers popping up over the offshore 
waters this afternoon as well as along the western coastal 
counties such as Matagorda and even Montgomery County. Development
should wane with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. 
Overnight, winds will become light and variable. Patchy fog will 
again be possible like last night in the usual suspect areas and 
could reduce visibilities, but should be rather short lived. 
Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low 70s to 80s. 
Another hot day is in store for tomorrow, with once again the 
potential to break daily maximum temperature records at the City 
of Houston, Houston Hobby and the City of Galveston. There should 
be better coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, as 
better precipitable waters of 1.6 to 1.8 inches return to the 
region. Precipitation should start over the Gulf waters early 
tomorrow morning before attempting to spread further inland, 
mainly south of I-10 by the afternoon hours. 

Hathaway

&&

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...
Mid/upper low situated over the cntl Gulf will make its way toward
the Tx coast early in the week. Some guidance indicates that a weak
surface circulation may eventually develop off the lower/mid coast,
eventually becoming stretched into more of an elongated coastal 
trof extending up the Tx upper coast. Look for rain chances to 
increase deeper moisture moves in, particularly across the southern
1/3 of the CWA and offshore where there remains a fairly strong 
signal for periods of heavy rainfall thru the mid-late workweek 
timeframe with several inches of rainfall a possibility. It's 
still too early for specifics...as the finer details will be 
highly dependent on the eventual trof/low/boundary evolution & 
location.

Moisture levels begin to taper downward and the mid-level 
weakness begins to fill late in the week. This should bring a 
return of slightly warmer temps and lower chances of rainfall as 
we head into next weekend. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate easterly flow can be anticipated through the remainder of 
this afternoon, becoming light and out of the northeast during the 
overnight hours. Small craft may need to exercise caution across the 
Gulf waters tomorrow, as wind speeds increase to between 15 to 20 
knots in the afternoon hours. This pattern can be anticipated 
through Monday, before onshore flow returns Tuesday. Showers and 
thunderstorms are forecast across the Gulf waters overnight into 
tomorrow morning. An upper level low pressure system currently in 
the north-central Gulf of Mexico should slide westward by mid week, 
increasing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy 
downpours, elevated seas, frequent lightning, and gusty winds can be 
expected in and around stronger storms. 

Hathaway 

&&

.Climate...
The City of Galveston has beat its old daily high temperature record 
of 93 degrees dating back to 1900, with a temperature of 96 degrees 
as of 2 PM. When considering the average temperature across the 
first 13 days of September for the City of Galveston, 2019 ranks the 
warmest with 87.7 degrees. 2019 Also ranks the warmest on the charts 
for the City of Houston and Houston Hobby with 86.2 and 86.3 
degrees, respectively.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  72  98  74  96  73 /   0   0  10  20  10 
Houston (IAH)          75  97  76  92  76 /   0  10  10  40  20 
Galveston (GLS)        81  93  82  88  80 /  20  20  50  70  60 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$