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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 170203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
903 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019


Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity north of the city around
the Lake Livingston area has dissipated upon the loss of daytime 
heating. A typical summertime pattern continues overnight and into
tomorrow as an upper-level ridge remains in place across the 
Southern Plains, which should keep things generally dry. With 
persistent onshore flow around 10kt and PW values around 1.75 
in...could see some isolated diurnally-driven showers across the
nearshore Gulf waters tomorrow morning that could push northward 
into the metro area by the afternoon. Main concern tomorrow will 
be temperatures...highs will reach the mid-90s across the area 
with heat index values on the cusp of heat advisory criteria.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ 

Typical summertime wx pattern is expected. VFR conditions this
evening into the overnight hours, followed by some MVFR stratus
development, lifting/scattering back out into VFR territory 
during the mid morning hours Wed. Southerly winds 10-15kt 
diminishing the next few hours then picking up mid/late morning 
Wed. Precip coverage should be even less on Tue so no mention 
needed in the TAFS attm. 47 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ 
Summer weather looks to be the norm...upper ridging should keep 
the region mostly dry with just a few showers near the coast in 
the morning transition over to a few isolated showers and 
thunderstorms by 11 am or noon roughly north of the I-69 corridor.
Temperatures in the mid 90s with heat index readings 102 to 109. 
May be needing a Heat Advisory for Wednesday if the dewpoints 
don't mix out. Will leave this to the midnight shift. Some patchy 
fog possible well inland for a few hours after midnight. Weak 
upper shear axis drifts inland Wednesday into Thursday which could
bring some high clouds but upper heights overall remain above 
normal. 45

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Monday]...
Upper level ridge is expected to amplify across the Rockies as an
upper level trough weakens over the northern Plains Thursday. 
Expect a drier weather pattern with a southerly wind flow through 
Friday as the upper level ridge along with a drier air mass 
prevails over the local region. Although mostly dry conditions are
expected, isolated showers and thunderstorms driven by diurnal 
and/or seabreeze effects could develop in the afternoon each day. 

During the weekend, rain chances are expected to increase. Low 
level moisture begins to move in from the northern Gulf waters and
LA on Saturday, gradually increasing on Sunday. Model and 
sounding data indicate PW vales of up to around 2.0 inches by 
Sunday. Additionally, a weak disturbance in the upper levels may 
develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, which 
could help create a more favorable environment for shower and 
thunderstorm development.

High temperatures in the low to mid 90s and low temperatures in 
the low 70s to low 80s can be expected each day through early next
week. Southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph, will also continue over 
the local area through the end of the forecast period. Lighter 
winds will be experienced inland during the night hours, except 
the coastal regions. 24

Winds southerly 10 to 15 knots with seas 2-4 feet through Friday 
and then gradually subsiding to 1-3 feet. Very quiet pattern in 
place across the coastal waters. Shower and thunderstorm chances 
should increase Sunday into Monday as an upper shear axis slides 
in from the east and low level moisture increases. Tide levels 
remain elevated through the week. Moderate rip currents possible 
and may have periods where they get a little stronger. If you are 
headed to the beach be sure and check on the conditions ahead of 
time. 45


College Station (CLL)      76  96  76  95  76 /   0  10   0  10  10 
Houston (IAH)              78  95  78  93  78 /  10  20   0  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)            82  90  82  89  82 /  10  20  10  20  10