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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 151119
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers are beginning to crop up over the Gulf and right near the
coast, but are dissipating as they move inland for now. FEW to SCT
020 to 025 at several terminals are expected to stay less than BKN
this morning, but can't rule out a brief ceiling. Look for
convection to be diurnally driven, mostly showers but isolated
thunder. Storms will be most likely to the east of all the TAF
sites. Tonight/tomorrow looks to be relatively close to a 
persistence forecast, but do start to introduce MVFR ceilings and
more thunder as deep moisture increases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

The expectation continues for a generally seasonable stretch of
weather across Southeast Texas. A string of upper disturbances
will provide chances for showers and storms through the first half
of the period. As we push deeper into next week, potential for
rain is expected to decrease, and high temperatures are expected
to warm towards the middle 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday]...

A veil of high clouds is drifting across Southeast Texas again,
but is not nearly as thick as last night. Some lower clouds are
also cropping up around 3000 feet on the onshore flow that has
become established. Though the radar does show some speckles of
returns at the coast, I don't really think we're seeing any precip
just yet.

That said, it should be an indication of the potential for showers
and storms to crop up as the day goes on. While the upper support
is not outstanding, there is a subtle vort max aloft that should
help support vertical motion, and onshore flow will stay in place
as low pressure deepens to our west, and should help increase
precipitable water. All in all, things should follow a roughly
diurnal pattern, ramping up through the day while pushing inland,
then fading off and refocusing offshore overnight.

Sunday looks pretty similar - perhaps a bit cooler as cloud cover
looks a little more significant tomorrow than today. The
difference is unlikely to be significant - just a small handful of
degrees - but still pretty seasonable. I go with somewhat higher 
PoPs tomorrow, as a stronger upper shortwave trough will be
cutting across Oklahoma, and the low pressure that is currently
developing to our west will be making its way northeast towards
the Great Lakes region. While that low will be dragging a cold
front behind it, expectations are for it to get hung up well to
our north - we won't be looking for any direct impact from this
low, just an indirect enhancement of the convective environment.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]...

Disturbances/shortwaves moving eastward across the state
Sunday night and Monday will be increasing the potential 
for showers and thunderstorms across the area.  The best
lift and instability still looks to be setting up across 
the northern half of the area (generally to the north of
the Interstate 10 corridor), but any outflows/boundaries
moving across the area could help to stretch activity to
the south of the corridor. A slight decrease in coverage
can be expected on Tuesday, followed by a generally much 
drier middle/end of the week forecast with high pressure 
building across the area. Slightly cooler high temperatures 
can be expected in the rain areas on Monday and Tuesday
(mid 80s to maybe the lower 90s). The drier pattern that 
looks to be setting up for the middle to end of the week 
will allow inland high temperatures to warm up generally 
into the low to mid 90s. 42


.MARINE...

Winds have strengthened to widespread SCEC speeds across the
waters, with advisory-level winds at times over the Gulf, so the
current advisory setup still appears appropriate. For now have
held onto the current configuration, though will have to keep an
eye on the nearshore off Galveston and perhaps the Bays for
potential need to upgrade to join the advisory area. Additionally,
have extended the advisory to Sunday morning as winds will stay
around the advisory threshold, with seas coming up as well.
Depending on just how the wind pattern evolves, the advisory may
need to be extended further, but a need for at least caution flags
is probable.

With the persistent onshore fetch, we'll also be expecting strong
rip currents and elevated tides. Use extra caution at the beaches
this weekend, and continue to monitor weather forecasts and
flags/reports from beaches on surf conditions to ensure a safe and
enjoyable trip to the shore.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  94  77  91  75  90 /  10  10  50  30  60 
Houston (IAH)          92  78  91  77  90 /  30  20  50  30  50 
Galveston (GLS)        88  82  88  81  87 /  30  30  40  30  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday morning for 
     the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs 
LONG TERM...42 
AVIATION...Luchs 
MARINE...Luchs