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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201614
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Skies will continue to clear from the west to east through the 
rest of the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Cur-
rent grids looks good and no major changes are planned at this
time. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 502 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019/ 

Overcast skies and lingering light showers prevailed particularly
across the central and southern portions of the forecast area as 
a cold front moved across the region overnight and early this 
morning. 

Area of high pressure and drier air will move into the the area 
during the morning and afternoon hours, limiting shower activity. 
However, model guidance shows low level moisture returning to the 
region this evening as the high pressure quickly moves 
northeastward and another surface low pressure develops over the 
western Gulf of Mexico. Expect shower activity to return across 
the Gulf waters and coastal regions tonight expanding further 
inland overnight. 

The surface low is expected to move towards the lower TX coast 
overnight. Ahead of the low, associated warm front will gradually 
move northward and into the local waters Thursday afternoon and 
then inland Thursday night through Friday morning, increasing low
level moisture and instability. This will ramp up shower and
thunderstorm development across SE TX. Moreover, another upper 
level trough will build across the Rockies Thursday night though 
Friday. As the surface low moves further northward, southerly flow
will continue to transport warm moist air across the region 
Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning, maintaining the 
wet and unstable weather pattern. The cold front associated to the
upper level trough will then move across SE TX Saturday 
morning/afternoon with drier air trailing behind it and 
encompassing the local area Saturday evening/night. By Monday and 
Tuesday, low level moisture will once again increase, as another 
surface low pressure moves across the lower TX coast and into the 
local coastal waters. Expect another round of showers Monday and 
Tuesday. 

High temperatures will be mainly between the low to upper 60s 
except Friday and Saturday were highs will range between the upper
60s to the mid 70s due to the warm/moist air mass in place. Low
temperatures should range between the low 40s to upper 50s
everyday expect Friday night were lows will be up in the low to
upper 60s. Also, due to surface lows and upper level troughs 
moving in and out of the region, wind direction and speed will 
continue to fluctuate throughout the forecast period. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      62  43  57  52  70 /   0  20  40  50  70 
Houston (IAH)              65  49  58  55  75 /  20  40  70  60  70 
Galveston (GLS)            63  56  64  61  71 /  40  60  70  50  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CST this morning 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport 
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$