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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 171136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest obs and satellite imagery show again a band of low stratus
over KCLL/KUTS/KCXO but more thick towards KCLL with IFR/MVFR 
ceilings. Farther south clouds are more thin and maintain VFR 
conditions. Ceilings should improve 14-16Z with possibly a few 
SHRA/TSRA developing 17-20Z in the Houston area. TAFs do not have 
mention of TSRA as confience is low and coverage should be 
isolated at most. Winds will be a little stronger today in the 
afternoon but decrease again tonight. Similar pattern is expected 
tonight with low stratus and MVFR ceilngs developing for 
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]... 
Humid conditions remain in place over SE Texas this morning with 
light southerly winds. Upper level analysis shows the upper level 
ridge expanding over Texas with 500mb heights around 594dm. Deep 
moisture of 1.8 inches of precipitable water still looks possible 
today so we will be looking for another round of showers and 
storms this afternoon. Overall there is not much lift in the 
atmosphere if any at all due to the ridge. Mesoscale models once 
again suggest showers and a few storms to fire along the sea 
breeze early in the afternoon through the I-45 corridor. Forecast 
will go with some 20 PoPs for today to cover this possibility but 
based on the ridging, it will be hard for convection to develop 
with day time heating and lift from the sea breeze.

Like yesterday, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 90s again 
with heat index values in the 103F to 108F range. Quite possible for 
a few spots to go above 108F if moisture does not mix out as much, 
but we think these higher heat index values will be for isolated 
areas and brief. For now we will not issue a heat advisory but there 
could be a chance for one being issued later especially for areas 
along the coast where mixing will be less.

Overpeck


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]... 
An upper level ridge builds in across the western Gulf of Mexico 
and TX Thursday, bringing with it hot weather and onshore flow. A 
typical summertime regime will continue through the week and into 
the early part of the weekend. High temperatures will rise into 
the low to mid 90s, with low temperatures each day bottoming out 
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Precipitable water values will range 
between 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Patchy fog will also be possible in the
early morning hours through the remainder of the week, but should
this low level moisture rise and burn off shortly after sunrise.

A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday 
afternoon, with precipitation chances and overall coverage on the
rise Sunday and into the beginning of next week. The upper level
ridge weakens and shifts northwest Saturday, and an inverted
trough axis looks to set up over the southwestern portion of the
Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure pushes northward
parallel to the TX coast Sunday, bringing with it better moisture
and lift, helping to aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will keep
temperatures a touch cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with drier
conditions and sunnier skies returning by mid week.

Hathaway


.MARINE...
Overall the next few days we can expect a more typical summer time 
forecast. Winds will generally be from the south around 10-15 knots 
with a slight increase to 13-17 knots at times overnight. This will 
also support seas around 2-4 feet. The only other concern will be 
slightly higher tides and rip currents. Tides should be about a half 
foot to a foot above normal but not cause any problems.

Overpeck

.CLIMATE...
A couple of record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday,
July 16th, across SE TX. For the City of Galveston, a record high
minimum temperature of 85 degrees was set, breaking the old 
record of 84 degrees set in 1994. This also once again ties the 
warmest high minimum temperature ever recorded for the City of 
Galveston. Additionally, Houston Hobby recorded a high minimum 
temperature of 81 degrees, breaking the old record of 79 degrees 
set in 2010. Finally, the minimum temperature for the City of 
College Station yesterday was 79 degrees, which ties the record 
high minimum temperature of 79 degrees previously set in 2009.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  96  77  95  76  95 /   0   0  10   0   0 
Houston (IAH)          95  79  93  78  93 /  20   0  10   0  10 
Galveston (GLS)        92  82  89  84  90 /  10   0  10   0  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck