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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

FXUS64 KHGX 170900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019


Storms focusing along the outflow boundary now stretching from
near Bouy 42035 to Matagorda Bay. Strong damaging winds possible
around the Matagorda Bay area and coastal counties adjacent.
Rainfall although intense is moving quickly with the storms and
should lessen the flooding threat. Previously have narrowed the
Flash Flood Watch to the southwestern counties and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect til 5 for the southwestern
most counties. 

As the cluster of storms moves through expect lighter rainfall
north of the cluster to sweep through with a fairly dry layer to
fall through over the central counties where the rain cooled dome
of air resides. 

By 8 or 9 am expect the storms to be mainly offshore or right
near the immediate coast. Much cooler weather on tap through early
afternoon or until the thick mid and upper level cloudiness moves
through with the coastal waters storms moving well out into the
Gulf. Will of course play havoc with the winds this morning but by
mid to late afternoon expect southerly flow to resume and to start
pulling back in somewhat worked over air. Scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorms possible over the area this afternoon. 

Tonight expecting a quiet night with an increase again in lower
level cloudiness late and probably over the northeastern areas.
Much warmer too compared to the relatively "chilly" temperatures
this morning in the mid 60s up north and down into even Brazoria
county...thanks meso-high. Although not back up into the very warm
range still expect overnight lows tonight/early Tuesday in the mid
70s to near 80. Tuesday should be in the lower 90s to around 90
for high temperatures and weak upper ridging trying to build back
into the area with a weak short wave passing by to the north...may
be enough for scattered mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms
along the seabreeze and over the eastern portions of the area.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT Through Monday]...

South winds will persist through the period as surface high pressure 
remains centered in/around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and southern 
Florida Peninsula area. Will continue to carry low shower and thun-
derstorm chances on Tuesday followed by drier/hotter weather for the
remainder of the week as much of the area resides on the northern 
fringes of weak upper level ridging. Warming temperatures still look 
like a good bet with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs
beginning on Wednesday and continuing into Friday. Low temperatures 
in this time period still look like they might struggle to fall under 
80 degrees at some spots, especially along the coast. We will need to
keep a close eye on heat index values that have the potential to peak
at a 106 to 109 degree range for several days which could lead to an
increase in heat related illnesses. Over the weekend, a developing
southwest flow aloft should allow for a return of mainly daytime 
showers and thunderstorms, and this activity should help to shave a 
couple degrees off the afternoon high temperatures.  42

Messy is an understatement. SCA flags up for parts of the area
with the storms moving through and locally strong gusty winds in
excess of 30 knots. Seas of 4-8 feet should be dominant conditions
through mid morning then subsiding. Winds directions is going to
be all over the compass as the storms move through and then with
any meso-highs. Eventually it settles down with southerly flow
resuming late this afternoon and tonight. Tide level may briefly
spike up with storms this morning then should subside. Will
continue the Beach Hazard/Rip current statements through mid
morning. Moderate southerly flow returns late Wednesday into
Thursday and continues into the weekend. Tropics look quiet.



College Station (CLL)  86  73  90  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  10 
Houston (IAH)          86  75  91  78  95 /  40  10  30  10  10 
Galveston (GLS)        85  80  87  82  90 /  70  20  30  10  10 



TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 AM CDT this morning for the 
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and 
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following 
     zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Coastal 
     Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal 
     Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland 
     Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

     for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following 
     zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX 
     from 20 to 60 NM.