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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200040
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Very low LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and periods of IFR fog that
becomes worse the closer you get to the coast. Expect these
conditions to occur ahead of the next front that is timed to move
across the region early Wednesday morning. The following air mass
will dry the regional atmosphere out enough to lift areawide 
ceilings to MVFR slight before or after sunrise...scattering out 
to VFR around noon tomorrow. Post-frontal north winds will slowly 
die out and veer more northeast in time through late tomorrow. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
While radar looks fairly quiet, obs/cameras are indicating that we
are seeing some rather damp/misty/drizzly/foggy weather across the
CWA this afternoon. The bulk of the more organized showers are
remaining NW and E of the region so far. We could get one more 
round of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms as the surface 
coastal low moves up from the Gulf and across the area later this 
evening. Clearing/cooler conditions on tap after midnight when 
this system/ associated rains move out to the NE. 

This brief break from the cloudy/unsettled weather (early Weds) is
expected to be just that. This very progressive weather pattern we
have been in will be gearing up once again Weds night with the return
of slightly deeper moisture as the next coastal low begins to 
form over the Lower TX coast. The persistent/strong SW winds aloft
will be drawing additional clouds/moisture across the area 
through the end of the week...with rain chances increasing once 
again with the passage of embedded upper level disturbances. 
Showers/thunderstorm development should be most active late Fri 
into Sat with onshore winds strengthening ahead of the next cold 
front progged for Sat afternoon. Per extended models...the next 
repeat of this cycle could start late Sun. 41

MARINE...
Areas of sea fog will linger this evening until a low pressure area 
near the coast moves off to the northeast and winds swing back 
around to the northwest. A coastal flood advsy remains in effect 
until early evening for the Bolivar area where wave run up and high 
tide levels possibly cause some overwash at HWY 87/124. Swells will 
be slower to fall offshore so will be extending the small craft 
advisory there. 

Otherwise, still looking at a complex marine forecast this week. 
Another area of low pressure will develop off Deep South Texas on 
Thursday and this feature will take a similar track as today's and 
approach SE TX by late afternoon. Warmer and more moist air will 
flow over the cooler shelf waters and produce another threat of sea 
fog Thursday night-Sat afternoon until the next front pushes 
through.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      41  62  44  56  52 /  30  10  30  50  50 
Houston (IAH)              48  66  49  59  56 /  40  10  50  60  50 
Galveston (GLS)            53  62  57  64  63 /  40  20  50  60  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM CST Wednesday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CST this evening 
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the 
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31