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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Houston/Galveston, TX (HGX)

                            
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220945
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
442 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The regional weather pattern has (and ultimately will) transition 
to more summer-like this coming 7 day period. As already 
eloquently stated by the previous shift's climate research, these 
past few days of warmer than normal diurnal temperature (maximums)
will be a preview of the next several days. While afternoon 
maximum temperatures have only been a few degrees warmer than mid 
to late May max temperature standards, the recent record 
tying/breaking very warm minimum temperatures have been the better
storyline. While moisture levels of between 1.2 and 1.4 inches 
have fallen within the climatology ho-hum 50-75 percentiles, it 
has been the stout overnight near surface southerlies that have 
kept many mixed and only falling into the near sunrise upper 70s. 
While we will not be experiencing 15 to 25 mph (Monday night & 
Tuesday morning-like) overnight winds, subsequent daily nocturnal 
winds will remain in the 5 to 10 knot range and, with slightly 
lower pwats through late week, minimum temperatures will fall back
into the closer-to-normal average lower to middle 70s. With no 
frontal passages expected in the near future, the dominant wind 
will remain onshore. Thus, isolated early day streamer near-coastal
(sea-to-land frictional) showers, along with mostly overcast 
skies, can be expected the next couple of mornings as the near 
surface layer saturates up under the mid level warm nose.

Upper ridging is forecast to expand in from the east tomorrow and 
this will guarantee a very summer-like weekend...more full sun with 
days warming from the sunrise low to mid 70s into the mid day lower 
90s. Suppression brought on from a near 595 dam ridge centered over 
the southeastern U.S. should be enough to keep the area bone dry 
over the weekend and into early next week. Cut and Paste days in the 
medium and extended period as each day will come in within a degree 
of the previous day. The next chance of rain comes late Tuesday 
through Wednesday...low chances from a (potential) Plains upper 
trough passage dragging a weak mid-low level boundary into north 
central Texas. 'If' upper ridging does decide to concede a bit, then 
expect modest chances for mid week rain. Of course, the alternative 
of an anchored ridge translates to continued dry...unseasonably warm 
days achieving the average lower 90s. Current (up to 6 foot depth) 
soil moisture values around 50% saturation will likely be much drier 
after a full week of no measurable rain. This will feedback into 
increasingly warmer afternoons. Too early to carelessly throw out 
the "D" word though....31

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will 
persist for the next couple of days. Expect a combination of 
advisory/caution flags for the remainder of the work week. Speeds 
and seas should generally diminish as we head into the weekend, and 
trend into a more typical summer-like pattern with higher winds 
offshore at night that relax during the day. Pressure gradient 
tightens again early next week with a corresponding increase of 
winds/seas.

Coastal Flood Advisory will continue along the coast. Minor coastal 
flooding remains a possibility around times of high tide. Went ahead 
and included the bayside portions of Harris and Galveston counties 
(where we saw some impacts yesterday around Seabrook and Lynchburg) 
to capture their high tide today. Expect increased wave run up and a 
high risk of rip currents along area beaches. I think the highest 
observed levels were probably observed yesterday and anticipate 
impacts to be slightly less each day as we head into Thurs/Fri. The 
hope is these advisories won't be needed after Fri morning.  47 

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions should lift into VFR territory during the mid/late 
morning hours. South-southeast winds will increase this morning and 
become gusty into the late evening hours. MVFR ceilings should 
redevelop by mid evening and persist overnight.  47  

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      90  76  90  74  90 /  10   0  20   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              90  77  89  74  89 /  10   0  20   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            85  79  85  79  86 /  10   0  10   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the following 
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar 
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this 
     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal Galveston...
     Coastal Harris.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for 
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following 
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to 
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47