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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Goodland, KS (GLD)

FXUS63 KGLD 212304

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Next shortwave trough rotating around the upper low in the
northern plains is approaching the Rockies and will move across
the area tonight, providing large scale ascent for thunderstorm
chances. At the surface, old front has stalled across southwest
Kansas, just out of the local forecast area. Initial thunderstorm
development will be along the front, and with storm motions having
a northeasterly component cannot rule out some of the storms
impacting far southeast area...from Gove to Hill City...between
about 23z and 03z, before exiting. If a storm does reach those
areas, it will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. Later in the evening, scattered storms will develop in the
post frontal environment with the approach of the better upper
forcing. These storms will be elevated, with the CAMs showing
varying degrees of MUCAPE peaking between 03z and 09z, with best
instability south of Interstate 70. Main hazard from these late 
evening and overnight storms will be hail, possibly up to quarter 
or half dollar size. Storms will continue to move east through 
early Sunday morning before finally exiting. Low temperatures 
tonight will range from the upper 40s in northeast Colorado to the
middle 50s in north central Kansas. 

Quiet weather is expected for Sunday, with zonal flow and subtle
ridge building in behind the departing wave. It will be mostly
sunny by the afternoon with high temperatures in the middle 70s
and light westerly winds. Sunday night will be mostly clear with
light southerly winds and low temperatures mainly in the 50s. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) 
Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The extended forecast is expected to be mainly dry with the 
exception of Monday. The forecast period starts out with a weak 
ridge over northeastern Colorado and southwest flow aloft over the
Tri-State area. Daytime high temperatures will be primarily in 
the low to mid 80s across the region. A weak surface low will move
through the southern part of Kansas Monday night. Did mention a 
chance for a few showers and storms in the southern and eastern 
parts of the area overnight and into early Tuesday morning. 

Flow will become northwesterly over the Tri-State area as the ridge
progresses eastward and a closed upper low dives southward into 
southern California and southwestern Arizona. The low will become 
cut off, remaining in the southern U.S. until late Wednesday 

We will experience some relief from highs in the 80s on Wednesday as 
a cold front moves through the region. Highs will top out in the 70s
with breezy conditions.

The GFS and ECMWF show the cut off low ejecting into the desert 
southwest on Thursday, a little later than model runs showed 
yesterday. Would not be surprised if upcoming model runs continue 
to push back the timing of northeastward progression with this 
system a bit. At this time, feeling pretty pessimistic on 
precipitation chances for Thursday and Friday. The system will 
have a great source of moisture while over the southwestern U.S. 
but will be crossing the desert southwest and southeastern 
Colorado before reaching the forecast area. Mid-levels are not 
looking very good right now in terms of any moisture remaining 
with this system by the time it does reach the area. 

Dry conditions are expected heading into the weekend as a ridge
builds over the eastern U.S. High temperatures will return to the
upper 70s to mid-80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected thru the forecast period for both 
terminals. VCTS is possible for both KGLD/KMCK from 06z-12z 

Winds for KGLD, ENE 10-15kts thru 06z Sunday, then becoming N 
15-25kts. By 11z, N around 10kts transitioning to WSW around 
10kts by 18z.

Winds for KMCK, NNE 10-15kts thru 06z Sunday, then NNW 15-25kts. 
By 12z, NNW around 10kts becoming WNW around 10kts by 19z.