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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Goodland, KS (GLD)

FXUS63 KGLD 212343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
543 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Much cooler temperatures today and Monday! Scattered clouds are 
expected to hang around across much of the Tri-State area for a lot 
of the short term forecast period. Some isolated shower and 
thunderstorm development is possible later this afternoon and into 
this evening in east-central Colorado, but generally these are not 
expected to persist into SW Nebraska or NW Kansas. A very isolated 
small chance of a severe thunderstorm cannot be totally ruled out 
for this afternoon/evening at this time.

Today... With the new colder airmass firmly in place behind 
yesterday's cold front and a lot of scattered clouds sticking around 
through this afternoon, afternoon highs are seriously chilly for 
late July. As of 1 PM MDT, temperatures are still struggling to get 
into the mid 70s which is solidly 20 degrees below average. The 
afternoon highs in the current forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s 
may be too high, but still waiting for the scattered clouds this 
afternoon to clear up a little. Think we'll get close to those 
forecast high temperatures, but they may need to come down a bit. 

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this 
afternoon along the Front Range in eastern Colorado and slowly 
spread eastward towards our counties in east-central Colorado. With 
the much cooler temperatures today and very little if any vertical 
wind shear, not expecting widespread severe weather development at 
this time. However, an extremely isolated severe weather event 
cannot be totally ruled out at this time for the extreme western 
portions of our forecast area, with the main hazard being damaging 
wind gusts. It's possible that little to no storm development occurs 
at all through this evening depending on how much clearing comes 
this afternoon.

Tonight... Isolated shower and thunderstorm development could 
possibly continue into the evening hours tonight, but that is 
expected to die down no later than midnight. Some low clouds could 
return to the forecast area overnight and persist through Monday 
morning. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 
50s for most, which is quite cold for this time of year but 
generally a few degrees above record lows. 

Monday/Monday night... No showers or thunderstorms are expected to 
develop tomorrow as cooler air remains in place. Very little 
instability is expected to develop tomorrow as well as very little 
vertical wind shear with an upper-level ridge still firmly in place 
over the southwest United States. High temperatures Monday afternoon 
could even be a degree or two colder than what's currently forecast 
for Sunday with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. While 
low broken or overcast clouds are expected to develop early Monday 
morning and hang around through the late morning hours, gradual 
clearing is expected through Monday evening leading to generally 
mostly clear skies overnight Monday night. Overnight lows will be in 
the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF continue to show upper ridge amplified 
over the Rockies Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching 
shortwave from the northwest. The arrival of the trough into the 
northern Plains/Rockies going into Wednesday is going to bring back 
more zonal flow over the northern half of the country...with the 
upper ridge now stretched over the southern portion. This pattern 
will remain going into the upcoming weekend.

At the surface...large surface ridge rolls through the Plains region 
through midweek...shifting eastward to the eastern half of the 
country by the end of the week. A meandering lee-side trough...with 
850 mb support...will linger over the east side of the Rockies... 
moving into the Plains during the week. The placement of the trough 
and ridge to the east will have strong WAA on SSW winds thru the 
period...and with mainly zonal flow aloft thru the bulk of the 
extended...a shift to more normal temps will ensue. As PWATs range 
near an inch during the extended period...chances for any 
thunderstorms could bring about locally heavy rainfall. Areal 
coverage of pops will meander with the trough...with best chances 
for rw/trw to occur Thursday afternoon/evening...with the remainder 
for precipitation chances mainly around the CO/KS border.

For temps...highs Tuesday will range in the 80s...but will give way 
to lower and mid 90s for the remainder of the forecast period. 
Lows...mid 50s Tuesday night will give way to mainly mid and upper 
60s warmest east.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2019

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Current storm
activity in Central Colorado is expected to remain in Colorado.
During the night MVFR ceiling will move over KGLD from the north.
KMCK may have a couple hours of MVFR. Confidence is moderate so
placed a tempo group in for KMCK. There may be another round of
MVFR ceilings for KMCK around 12z. Confidence is low at this point
of ceilings being that low.