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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Hastings, NE (GID)

                            
000
FXUS63 KGID 211110
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
610 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Today is expected to be the warmest day of the week, and will 
likely be the warmest day through the end of October. Southwest 
flow at the surface and low-levels will push highs into the 70s 
for the entire area. With the westerly, downsloping component of 
the winds, I will not be surprised if some locations just west of 
the forecast area approach 80 degrees. 

Regarding winds, RAP model soundings show mixing to around 
875-850mb and winds at the top of the boundary layer of 20-30kts. 
The corridor of strongest 850mb winds will gradually shift 
eastward through the day as a surface and low-level trough 
approaches the area. As such, the strongest winds should once 
again be in the eastern parts of the forecast area. All things 
considered, I expect gusts to 25-35 MPH at times. 

Unlike previous days, we may actually see a few high clouds this 
afternoon and evening as a weak perturbation is evident at 500mb. 

Tonight, the surface trough/weak front will move through the 
area, switching winds back to the north, and allowing low temps to
fall into the low 30s for northern parts of the area. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Dry weather continues on Monday, but it will be 10-15 degrees 
cooler than today as we remain in northerly flow and high pressure
builds in from the north. Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but 
winds become southeasterly ahead of the next upper trough 
approaching the Continental Divide.

By Tuesday night, models continue to indicate that the southerly 
flow will bring enough moisture back into the area for scattered 
showers. This activity will start out over western Nebraska and 
Kansas Tuesday night, gradually overspreading central 
Nebraska/Kansas during the day on Wednesday. Thanks to the rain 
and cloud cover, high temps on Wednesday probably won't get higher
than the upper 40s or lower 50s. 

Precipitation totals won't be heavy with this system. The Gulf 
connection is poor and there is little to no instability to work 
with. Nevertheless, this is a rather slow-moving system so some 
locations could pick up 0.25-0.50" of rain through Thursday 
morning. 

The area should gradually dry out on Thursday, but we will remain
in northwesterly flow Friday and Saturday so we will at least 
keep some slight chances for rain in the area. Timing of any 
additional precipitation is tough to nail down at this point, but 
its certainly not a "guaranteed" dry period like the past couple 
days have been. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. 

LLWS will end by 15Z this morning as southwesterly surface winds
increase...likely gusting between 20 and 25kts at times through
early afternoon. 

A few high clouds may move through the area this afternoon and
evening. 

Winds become light and variable by around 0Z, and will become
northerly after 06Z. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels