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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Hastings, NE (GID)

                            
042 
FXUS63 KGID 211732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Hazardous Weather Potential: None.

Aloft: 12Z upr-air data and aircraft data showed trofs over the 
Pac NW and New Eng with a ridge over the Canadian Prairies. A cut-
off low was underneath along the CO/KS border. This low will cont
inching E across KS/OK tonight and into AR tomorrow. Neb/KS will 
remain under the influence of this low as a lobe of vorticity 
extends NW from the low into tomorrow. 

Surface: Large high pres was over the GtLakes and arced back into
Neb/KS. A low pres sys was over TX. The only thing that will 
change thru tomorrow will be the low heading into AR. 

Rest of this afternoon: Cldy with periods of -RA. Another
unseasonably chilly day for late Apr. Temps hold steady in the 
40s for the most part.

More later...


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday and Monday...
We will be in between storm systems with the Oklahoma upper low 
tracking into Tennessee and the next short wave trough tracking 
from the pacific northwest into Wyoming. This will make for dry 
and warmer weather. High temperatures on Sunday should climb back 
into the upper 50s to near 60 although there could still be a good
many clouds around. Monday could be the best day of the week with
highs actually close to normal in the mid 60s, light winds, and 
at least partly sunny skies.

Monday night through Tuesday night...
We'll see the next shortwave track southeast across the region
bringing a cold front and chance for rain. This appears to be
another minor rain event as the deeper gulf moisture will be cut
off and unavailable for this system. Highs on Tuesday will
probably fall back down into the 50s.

Wednesday...Another break between storm systems and with some
sunshine we could possibly touch 60 degrees again in a number of
locations.

Thursday...The next upper trough swings southeast out of Canada
and across our region. There is very little moisture to work with
so just low end chances for a little light rain. The model blend
says highs in the lower 60s, but that may be too warm, watch to
see if these highs fall with future updates depending on the
strength of the cold front.

Friday into next weekend...Technically next weekend is just beyond
the end of the forecast period, but given the stretch of basically
5 cold/below normal weekends in a row, I wanted to say that 
perhaps this last weekend in April might finally be a nice one if
current trends hold. It appears that we could see an upper level
ridge over the area that would bring dry weather and highs that
should be near to maybe even a little above normal for a change.
It could be a close call though on timing of another shortwave by
Sunday. We'll see, but right now looking like perhaps finally a
nice weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Significant Wx: Variable MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in -RA. Low prob IFR.

This afternoon: Periods of -RA. CIGs are variable between VFR and
MVFR and we are seeing some IFR clds trying to form. VSBYs are
mainly VFR but some 5SM have occurred recently. Expect MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs at times. There is a low probability that brief IFR
CIGs could occur...mainly at EAR. ENE winds 5-10 kt. Confidence:
High

Tonight: -RA ends. MVFR CIGs probably remain most of the night at
EAR...but CIGs lifting to VFR late. GRI should lift to VFR early.
Lgt ENE winds gradually become NNE or N under 10 kt. Confidence:
Medium

Sun thru 18Z: VFR with decreasing clds. Expect FEW-SCT stratocu to
form near 2500 ft and lift to near 4000 ft by midday. NE winds 5-9
kt. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley