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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Hastings, NE (GID)

                            
097 
FXUS63 KGID 232351
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
551 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The weather has been quiet today aside from some morning fog at
KJYR on the back edge of the stratus. The fog/visibility
restrictions were shortlived as the stratus migrated to the east
and winds increased from the west.

Today is a transition day in between the storm system which produced 
blizzard conditions on Monday and warmer weather poised to move in 
for the middle of the week. Despite the recent snowfall, 
temperatures have risen nicely into the 30s and 40s today aided 
by a western downslope wind. Between the settling and melting of 
the snow, the midday snow depth had already lowered by a half of 
an inch at WFO Hastings.

As we head into tonight the shortwave trough crossing the plains 
today, bringing the mid/high level cloud cover to our area will 
depart to the east with decreasing clouds for the overnight hours.
Any melting which occurred today will refreeze as temperatures 
drop into the teens/low 20s for lows. Have some concern for the 
potential for fog development, however with the refreeze and 
downslope wind component have not included in the forecast at this
time.

Warmer weather and more snowmelt will be underway on Wednesday in 
rising heights as upper ridging expands east of the Rockies. The 
combination of the warmer airmass and a west to southwest 
downslope wind component off a lesser snowpacked area will lead 
to noticeably warmer temperatures well into the 30s and 40s in 
snow areas, with 50s forecast in non-snow locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The extended periods remain quiet with dry weather forecast into 
next week. The warmest day of the week is expected on Thursday as 
subtle upper ridging settles across the plains states, and flow 
gradually transitions southwest ahead of a western trough. Southerly 
winds will be on the increase through the afternoon and combined 
with another day of temps in the 40s and 50s, any residual snow 
should erode. Then on Friday, a cold front and upper trough 
passage will cool things down several degrees, but still mild for
January.

A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Saturday with a clipper 
system and back door cold front, then Sunday will be the 
transition day between systems, with a warmer and fairly zonal 
pattern expected for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

VFR forecast with one caveat. SREF indicates some reduced
visibility tonight, but the west wind component will probably keep
this at bay, so no reduced visibility will be in this forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Heinlein