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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fort Worth/Dallas, TX (FWD)

                            
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210425
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1125 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Convection has ceased across North Texas this evening, and
tranquil weather is expected at the TAF sites overnight and into 
Saturday. Convectively-induced outflows temporarily elevated wind
speeds over the past few hours, although winds should become 
lighter (10-15 kts) overnight while remaining southeasterly. 
While skies are currently VFR, a deterioration to MVFR is expected
over the next few hours as fairly widespread stratus develops. 
Initially, cig heights should be near or above 2 kft, although 
some occasional cigs closer to 1 kft are possible closer to 
daybreak. Will Tempo these conditions, while prevailing higher 
MVFR cigs through the late morning hours. In addition, some warm 
advection fueled showers may meander near Waco shortly after 
daybreak, and will maintain VCSH to account for this low 
potential. Afterwards, an improvement to VFR is expected with 
rain-free conditions through the rest of the period. South winds 
around 15 kts with some higher gusts will continue.

-Stalley

&&


.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/
/Saturday night through Friday/

On Saturday evening, the center of the strongest ridging will
be over the southeastern U.S., squashed on its western side by a
landfalling tropical cyclone over northwest Mexico, and a
shortwave trough moving through the Central Plains. A stream of
high level moisture and strengthening westerly flow aloft
associated with the shortwave will result in an elongated band of
ascent across West Texas and into the Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing well off to our northwest
Saturday night, but as the main shortwave swings eastward into 
Sunday morning, we may see one or more of these clusters expand 
into our area. This is most likely to occur through the day Sunday
and we'll keep some 20-40% PoPs mainly across the north and
northwest counties.

With the shortwave departing late in the day Sunday, the upper
ridging will spread back westward on Monday and we should see
temperatures respond upward. A remnant weak frontal boundary
should be draped across central or southern Oklahoma Monday
afternoon and may serve as a focus for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Some of this activity may develop south of the Red
River during peak heating and we'll have some low PoPs across the
northern half of the region during this time.

The middle to latter part of the week will feature a cut off low
over the southwest U.S. with ridging nudged a little farther
eastward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a
fairly robust southerly flow to remain in place keeping it warm
and muggy through the end of the week. We'll maintain some low
PoPs each afternoon through Thursday. This upper low to the west
will likely eject into the Plains sometime on Friday, although at
this time it looks like it may well too far to the north for an
appreciable increase in rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/
/Through Saturday afternoon/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon near
the Red River in the wake of Tropical Storm Imelda's remnant low.
This convection is ongoing near where a surface dewpoint axis
intersects a weak convergent boundary near the Red River. These
cells are moving at a decent clip which should preclude flooding
issues (we also have high flash flood guidance values given recent
drought conditions), but rain gauge data does show that these
cells are very efficient rainfall producers. Because of this, we
will have watch for any training of showers/thunderstorms. To the
southeast, additional showers and thunderstorms have developed 
around Palestine. We may see some coverage persist here as well,
but the greater coverage should be to the north along the Red
River. Convection should diminish after sunset as heating ends,
and the boundary layer stabilizes.

Tonight will be warm and muggy with lows in the mid 70s.
Temperatures will stay up above seasonal normals as abundant Gulf
stratus infiltrates the region. A stray shower or two is possible
as is often the case in these warm air advection regimes, but
coverage and amounts should stay light.

Saturday will start off cloudy in the morning, but the sun should
come out by afternoon, allowing highs to rise into the lower 90s.
A few isolated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm, will be
possible during the afternoon as diurnal heating ramps up, but
without any clear surface boundaries, coverage should remain
sparse.

37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  91  74  92  75 /  10   5   0  10  20 
Waco                77  91  73  93  73 /  10  10   0   5   5 
Paris               71  87  71  89  71 /  30   5   0  10  20 
Denton              75  90  73  91  73 /  30   5   0  20  20 
McKinney            75  90  73  91  73 /  30   5   0  10  20 
Dallas              76  92  74  92  76 /  10   5   0  10  20 
Terrell             75  91  73  91  74 /  10   5   0   5  10 
Corsicana           75  90  71  91  72 /  10   5   0   5  10 
Temple              75  91  72  92  72 /  10  10   0  10   5 
Mineral Wells       74  90  70  91  71 /  20   5   5  20  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26