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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Fort Worth/Dallas, TX (FWD)

                            
129 
FXUS64 KFWD 191132
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

Concerns--None through the TAF period. VFR/south flow. Increasing
cloud cover likely just beyond TAF period.

An upper-level ridge remains in place across the South-Central
CONUS this morning...and will bring continued quiet weather to
North and Central Texas for one more day before the ridge slides
off to the east. As has been the case the past few days...a few
isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible well to
the east and southeast of the D10 TRACON with minor impacts to the
Cedar Creek arrival gate possible. Otherwise...expect continued
VFR and S flow at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

Just beyond the TAF period...an increasing low-level jet courtesy
of lee cyclogenesis from an approaching shortwave trough will 
likely bring about increasing cloud cover. Cloud cover will 
increase from south to north on Thursday with skies likely 
becoming SCT to BKN just beyond 20/1200Z. Considered adding a 
change group to add a ceiling in the 24-30 hour portion of the DFW
TAF...but confidence is low at this time...though it does appear 
likely that DFW should remain VFR through at least 20/1800Z.

Godwin

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of the
upper-level ridge for one more day. 0000Z upper-air analysis shows
that the stout ridge responsible for the recent spell of above
normal temperatures remains centered over the Southern Plains, but
model guidance is in agreement that this ridge should begin
sliding off to the east during the next 24 hours, with an upper-
level trough forecast to begin digging into the Southern Rockies.
For today however, this ridge will remain in control, meaning 
another day of above normal temperatures is forecast. On Tuesday, 
DFW and Waco hit high temperatures of 94F and 96F, respectively. 
Wednesday should be a virtual repeat with highs in the low to mid 
90s across the entire forecast area. Dewpoint temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s will mean heat indices approaching the 100F
mark once again.

Rain chances should be minimal for most of the region, but as has
been the case the past few days, a few afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over our eastern couple of tiers of
counties (i.e. east of a Bonham to Fairfield line). Despite the
strong ridging aloft (which will still limit overall coverage),
hot afternoon temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture should
allow a few thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon,
diminishing shortly after sunset. Surface analysis this morning
reveals an axis of 70F+ dewpoint temperatures across the East
Texas Piney Woods, which is where the greatest rain/thunderstorm
chances will exist. The severe weather threat will be low, though
cloud-to-ground lightning will be a threat with any thunderstorm.
The lack of low-level forcing/convergence will preclude much in
the way of a heavy rainfall threat, but as is the case with just
about any summertime thunderstorm, some quick locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/
/Thursday through Next Week/

Thursday will begin with a shortwave trough crossing the Rockies 
and an upper ridge shifting east to the Carolinas. The upper 
trough will move fairly quickly east into the Plains while a 
southern stream shortwave moves slowly eastward across Mexico and 
West Texas. The northern system will be accompanied by a lee 
cyclone which will move northeast through the Central Plains, and 
a trailing cold front which will push south through the Southern 
Plains. The southern system will be accompanied by a remnant 
Pacific low and an added swath of Pacific moisture. 

Weak ascent associated with the southern system will begin across
the west and southwest counties Thursday night, where low-end POPs
will remain. Stronger and more widespread lift will arrive on
Friday, bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the region. The front will likely push south of the Red 
River before stalling near the I-20 corridor by Friday night, 
providing added focus for thunderstorm development. 

A threat for locally heavy rain will exist starting Friday 
afternoon as a slug of 2+ inch PWAT moisture spreads northward 
from the Gulf. The heavy rain threat will continue through 
Saturday and may persist even into Sunday as the shortwave slows 
down and provides continued lift across the forecast area. 
Rainfall totals will likely be greatest in the vicinity of the 
surface boundary where training showers and storms will be 
possible. At this time, we are forecasting the highest QPF totals 
in the area between the Red River and the Interstate 20 corridor, 
where Friday-Sunday totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with 
locally higher amounts. However, if the front receives a stronger 
push than currently projected, the focus for locally heavy rain 
would shift south.

Modest instability will exist south of the surface boundary, 
which may lead to a few strong to borderline severe thunderstorms.
The lack of wind shear will mitigate the overall threat, however,
with only an isolated storm or two becoming capable of generating
hail or damaging wind gusts.

A lull in precipitation is expected Monday and possibly into
Tuesday as we await the arrival of a much stronger and larger- 
scale upper trough and associated cold front. There are still 
model discrepancies regarding the timing of the cold front over 
North and Central Texas, but it still appears likely to arrive 
around the middle part of next week. Chance POPs will remain in
the forecast for next Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by much
cooler and drier conditions for the second half of next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  93  75  88 /   0   0  10  10  50 
Waco                95  74  91  75  87 /   0   0  20  20  60 
Paris               96  74  92  73  87 /  20  10  10  10  40 
Denton              95  73  92  73  86 /   0   0   5  10  50 
McKinney            95  74  93  74  87 /   0   0   5  10  50 
Dallas              96  75  94  76  89 /   0   0  10  10  50 
Terrell             96  74  93  75  88 /  10   5   5  10  40 
Corsicana           95  74  91  75  88 /  10   5  10  10  40 
Temple              95  73  89  74  86 /   0   0  30  20  60 
Mineral Wells       93  70  91  72  86 /   0   0  10  20  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

37/30