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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 220530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 756 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ 

Afternoon/evening convection persists this evening, generally over
the far southern CWA, with a few outlying cells in the metro
Atlanta area. Have updated PoPs/Wx for the next few hours to delay
the removal of precip wording. Still anticipate activity to
diminish/end into the late evening hours. Otherwise, have made
only minimal changes to temperatures and dew points to account for
the latest hourly trends. Current forecast through the next 36
hours looks to be on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Very warm and muggy conditions persist across north and central 
Georgia with temps in the 80s to lower 90s. A few storms have popped 
up along the ridges of northeast Georgia but a weak flow aloft is 
limiting development/movement off the higher terrain.

Through Friday night/early Saturday, an upper ridge of high pressure 
will remain firmly entrenched across the mid-MS Valley and lower 
Great Lakes region while a weak upr lvl circulation drifts (extends) 
from eastern North Carolina to the Gulf Coast/panhandle of Florida. 
Diurnally-driven, mainly afternoon and evening, convection will be 
widely scattered (20-30%) at best, with no significant "driver" or 
low lvl forcing nor wind shear to sustain anything long-lasting. 
Temperatures will continue to run 5-10F degrees above normal.


LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

A broad upper-level ridge will dominate the eastern CONUS over the 
weekend. This ridge will draw moisture from the Atlantic Ocean over 
the region to begin the extended period. Impulses within the upper 
level flow will provide a focus for diurnally driven showers and 
thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. As such, PoPs in central and 
northern GA could be as high as 30 percent. Not confident in 
increasing PoPs beyond that due to a lack of surface-based forcing. 
High relative humidity values coupled with light winds could lead to 
areas of patchy fog in the early morning hours during the weekend. 
The upper ridge will break down early next week and then re-develop 
in the middle of the week.

GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian models all continue to keep Hurricane Maria 
well to the east of our region. No direct impact from Maria is 
expected to occur in the extended forecast period and Maria will 
instead pass through the South Atlantic Ocean beginning on Sunday. 
Proximity of Maria off the east coast will maintain a general 
northeasterly flow over the region which will keep temperatures 
moderated and set up a zone of subsidence over the southeastern 
CONUS, which will promote drier and more stable conditions. PoPs are 
expected to decrease to minimal values beginning on Sunday and into 
next week. Warm and generally dry conditions are also to be expected 
throughout the remainder of the extended period.



06Z Update...
VFR ceilings will prevail through the period. Areas of patchy MVFR
or IFR visibilities will be possible during the morning hours,
especially in more fog-prone locations. Sct diurnal cu around 
5kft expected by afternoon with isolated to scattered shra/tsra 
possible. The peak chance for convection will be during the 18z- 
02z time frame. Winds this morning will be near calm to light and 
easterly with east winds 4-6kts expected during the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.



Athens          86  66  85  65 /  20  20  10   5 
Atlanta         85  69  85  67 /  20  20  20   5 
Blairsville     82  60  82  59 /  30  20  20   5 
Cartersville    87  66  86  65 /  20  20  20   5 
Columbus        89  69  87  68 /  20  20  20   5 
Gainesville     84  66  84  65 /  20  20  10   5 
Macon           87  67  86  65 /  30  20  20   5 
Rome            87  66  87  64 /  20  20  20   5 
Peachtree City  86  66  85  65 /  30  20  20   5 
Vidalia         88  69  86  68 /  20  20  10   5