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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
632 
FXUS62 KFFC 141820
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
120 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Near zonal upper level flow across the region will keep GA dry 
through the short term.  this westerly flow will keep GA in the dry 
slot between two systems just north and south of the state. This 
westerly flow will also allow temps to rebound  bit today with highs 
expected mainly in the 50s and 60s across the north and central GA. 
Lows tonight expected mainly in the 30s. with some upper 20s in the 
North GA mountains.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The long term period begins with high pressure in control over the
southeast states and stalled frontal boundary poised for a return
along the gulf coast. It will take most of the weekend but indeed
a substantial moisture return occurs ahead of a strong shortwave
moving NE out of the 4 corners region and into Texas. Slightly
diffluent pattern aloft develops as well which should allow for
good coverage of showers by Sunday. Instability, especially
surface based, is limited with this system but enough dynamics to
warrant isolated thunder mention in mainly elevated convection.

After this first wave, models diverge for pretty much the entire
duration of the long term period with the GFS a persistently wet
pattern and the ECMWF a largely dry one. Both have a second
shortwave on the heels of the first coming out of Texas but return
flow is much more pronounced with the GFS ahead of this feature.
Without much of anything to go on to favor one model over the
other, will continue with a blend for this cycle slightly favoring
the drier ECMWF for now.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be W-NW through the
period. High level clouds will move in from the south between
09-15Z. Wind speeds will be 7kt or less overnight, then 6-10kt
through the day tomorrow. Tighter pressure gradient after 18-21Z
could increase winds in afternoon before diminishing into the
Friday night period. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  33  51  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         54  34  48  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     47  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0 
Cartersville    52  29  45  27 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        59  38  54  33 /   0   0   5   0 
Gainesville     51  33  46  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           60  36  56  31 /   0   0   5   0 
Rome            53  28  45  27 /   0   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  57  33  50  29 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         62  41  60  35 /   0   0  10   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...31