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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 160614

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
214 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018


06z Aviation update below.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 917 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/ 


Current radar showing isolated showers and thunderstorms across 
the area. In central Georgia the current trend is mainly downward 
as activity starts to wane. Showers and thunderstorms are
continuing to develop generally west of the metro and in far 
western central GA in an area of about 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 
with PWATS around 2 inches or greater, and slow propagating 
storms. It is possible to see high rainfall rates which could
possibly lead to flash flooding issues if they sit over an area
for an extended amount of time. Also expecting some showers and 
thunderstorms to linger into overnight tonight. Overall, the rest
of the forecast looks to be on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

The upper ridge continues over the forecast area today with a very 
moist airmass in place. PW values range around two inches. Mostly 
diurnal convection being driven mainly by old boundaries and also 
what appears to be a weak low over north GA. Thunderstorms 
developing over TN and KY and moving southeast into north GA may 
affect that area into the overnight hours. High res models hint that 
there may be continued development of convective complexes during 
the night that drift southeast. However...upper winds are weak 
so if convection develops in TN...the drift toward north GA could be 
a slow one. In general...northwest GA should be watched for slow 
moving storms. The upper ridge gets suppressed a bit on Monday and 
a weak trough forms over the OH and TN valley areas. This combined 
with the deep moisture could support more coverage of showers and 
thunderstorms tomorrow. Likely pops still look okay for that time. 
Expect no big changes in temperatures.



.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Only gradual changes in the large scale pattern in the long term 
period. Large broad ridge over the western and central CONUS on 
Tuesday progged to remain over the western CONUS while slowly 
amplify. Troughing over the Great Lakes and midwest progged to 
deepen which puts southeast states in increasingly stronger NW flow 
and slightly drier air, more so perhaps in north GA, by the end of 
the week. Could be a pattern in which we see increased overnight and 
next day MCS activity like we saw a few weeks ago, but too soon to 
pin that down. Until then, coverage and timing of convection and 
min/max temps should remain nearly the same until mid week with some 
slightly lower PoPs mid week on. PW values also should drop some so 
risk of flooding should subside a little.

Heat indices should remain 95 to 102 through the extended though 
will continue to monitor. Tropical activity not seen in model progs 
or NHC outlooks. 


Previous LONG TERM...
/Monday Night through Saturday/...
/Issued 338 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/ 

Medium-range model trends continue to be consistent and in fairly 
good agreement through the majority of the Long-Term Forecast period.
Relatively high-amplitude upper pattern persists with the eastern
U.S. under a deepening upper trough. Sharp frontal boundary sags 
into the forecast area midweek, lingering over the region through 
the latter half of the week before washing out. Some drier air does 
try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the front, but
not enough to eliminate POPs altogether across the north just yet. 
High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected through the Extended 
Forecast period. 



06Z Update...
Most sites should have some early morning IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
though a few locations could be lower (especially the sites north
of KATL which had storms in the last few hours). Daytime cu field
again in 2500-4000 ft range and afternoon prob30 for TSRA which
could be as early as 17/18z. Winds initially light and VRB but
should be SW 4-6 kts for much of the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update... 
Medium on morning cigs.
High on all else.



Athens          89  72  89  72 /  60  50  60  40 
Atlanta         89  73  89  73 /  60  50  60  40 
Blairsville     84  67  83  65 /  70  50  60  40 
Cartersville    89  72  89  70 /  70  40  60  40 
Columbus        91  75  90  74 /  60  50  60  50 
Gainesville     87  72  88  71 /  70  50  60  40 
Macon           90  73  89  73 /  60  50  60  40 
Rome            90  72  89  70 /  60  40  60  40 
Peachtree City  90  73  89  72 /  60  50  60  40 
Vidalia         90  74  90  75 /  60  50  60  40