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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
021 
FXUS62 KFFC 160745
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

High PWAT regime continues today along with some aided upper forcing 
from a weak shortwave, warranting likely pops area-wide peaking with 
daytime heating which could linger a bit longer into the overnight 
given how slow the trough axis is to progress. Thermal profiles 
indicate tall skinny CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and given how the lapse 
rates are not impressive given the well saturated column and how the 
last several days have trended, thinking severe convection is not 
anticipated and primarily some strong storms instead. Main threats 
will be isolated flooding from the precip efficiency, occasional 
lightning and gusty winds.

The greater moisture axis does shift farther south into central GA 
for Tuesday, though should be enough influence from the 
aforementioned upper wave and also a weak front approaching the 
north by late afternoon/evening that will still warrant likely pops 
for the majority of the area. Storms should have less chance for 
flood potential given some mid/upper level drier air advecting in 
and resultant PWATs down to about 1.5 inches.

Temp fcst slightly lower today in the upper 80s for most given 
greater precip coverage then a bit higher Tuesday with some drier 
columns.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate 
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an 
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between 
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I 
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast 
cycle. 

20


&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Most sites should have some early morning IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys
though a few locations could be lower (especially the sites north
of KATL which had storms in the last few hours). Daytime cu field
again in 2500-4000 ft range and afternoon prob30 for TSRA which
could be as early as 17/18z. Winds initially light and VRB but
should be SW 4-6 kts for much of the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update... 
Medium on morning cigs.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  72  90  72 /  70  50  60  40 
Atlanta         88  73  89  73 /  70  50  60  40 
Blairsville     82  67  84  67 /  70  50  60  30 
Cartersville    88  72  90  71 /  70  50  60  40 
Columbus        90  75  90  74 /  60  50  70  50 
Gainesville     86  72  89  71 /  70  50  60  40 
Macon           89  73  90  73 /  60  50  60  40 
Rome            89  72  90  71 /  60  40  60  40 
Peachtree City  89  72  89  72 /  70  50  70  40 
Vidalia         89  74  89  74 /  60  50  60  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Baker