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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 201919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
The upper level low over the Carolina's will begin to lift
northeastward as the surface front continues to push away from 
the forecast area. A surface low over the Ohio Valley will keep
north winds across the area tonight which will allow temperatures
to drop to near freezing across north GA - with below freezing
temperatures across the higher elevations. The models have backed
off a little on the amount of moisture that will move across
forecast area tonight. Short term models continue to show the wrap
around moisture close enough to the forecast area to include 
slight to low chance POPs overnight into tomorrow morning. 
Forecast soundings support a mixture of rain and snow with all 
snow across the higher elevations. Any accumulations will remain 
light at one inch or less. 

Tomorrow surface high pressure will build down the Mississippi
Valley and models are showing run-to-run consistency as well as 
with each other that the surface gradient across the area will be 
tight enough for some gusty winds to 35 mph tomorrow afternoon and
have issued a wind advisory from noon to 8 pm. Northwest flow 
will keep CAA across the area, even as the skies remain mostly 
clear across much of the area. temperatures will moderate somewhat
with colder than normal temperatures expected. 


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Made some adjustments to the extended forecast trends, especially in 
the latter half of the period. Loaded an NBM blend, but did adjust 
to back off of the strength of the wedge influence early next week 
as there continues to be some divergence between the GFS and ECMWF 
through the period. GFS is showing a very strong wedge developing by 
Sunday with the new ECMWF a bit slower and not not quite as strong, 
at least initially. Consequently, instability is also looking a bit 
limited with just enough instability to keep a mention of a slight 
chance for thunder for Saturday/Saturday night ahead of the wedge 
development, but not did not include any mention other periods.
See previous discussion below.


LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Thursday and Friday will bring moderating temperatures and will 
remain primarily dry with only a slight chance of a few showers 
sneaking into far north Georgia by late Friday. Rain chances 
appear to begin to increase more appreciably by Saturday as the upper
pattern transitions into a more zonal flow and a low pressure 
system moves into the Ohio Valley. There is still some
inconsistencies in the run to run guidance of the models but
definitely transitioning into a wetter pattern for the weekend 
into the middle of next week. 



AVIATION.../Issued 150 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018/ 
18Z Update...
VFR CIGs will continue across TAF sites although ATL area may
flirt with MVFR 04-08Z before skies scatter out. WEST to NORTHWEST
winds will increase to 8-13kts with gusts possible through
tomorrow afternoon. Brief showers n ATL area possible this
afternoon but confidence is too low to include a TEMPO group at
this time. No restrictions to visibility is expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence in all elements except chance of showers.



Athens          37  53  33  60 /  20   5   0   0 
Atlanta         36  52  34  58 /  20   0   0   0 
Blairsville     31  42  27  51 /  40  20   5   0 
Cartersville    35  51  31  57 /  30   5   0   0 
Columbus        40  59  37  63 /  10   0   0   0 
Gainesville     35  49  32  57 /  20   5   0   0 
Macon           40  59  35  63 /   5   0   0   0 
Rome            34  52  31  58 /  30   5   0   0 
Peachtree City  37  54  34  60 /  20   0   0   0 
Vidalia         42  60  38  63 /  10   0   0   0