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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 141931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
231 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Weak surface front will push through the state through the short 
term, with minimal impact to the area. As the front pushes into 
southern Georgia overnight, increased upper level moisture will 
allow high level clouds to build northward into the state, but still 
do not expect any precipitation. Cloudy conditions will affect 
middle Georgia overnight and into the weekend. Cloudy skies will be 
less prominent over north Georgia, with increased mid-day cloud 
cover Friday diminishing into the late afternoon/early evening 
hours and ahead of the weekend.

Friday lows will be near 30 north to near 40 south, with 
temperatures running 5-10 degrees cooler on Saturday morning. Chilly 
high temperatures return tomorrow, with afternoon temps generally in 
the mid 40s to mid 50s.



.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

While not much change was needed to the first portion of the fcst
period (into Monday), most adjustments were to raise pops for a 
more prolonged period of SW Gulf moisture advection and less 
progressive upper trough to the west through Tuesday. Have largely
based this on how the latest Euro has come more in line with the
GFS. Progged instability looks slightly higher for Monday and
Tuesday so have included slight chance thunder wording accordingly
(mainly for parts of south and west). Will have to still watch for
stronger convection potential given how highly sheared the
environment looks. Given the setup, temps are now decently warmer
and QPF higher Mon/Tue. Guidance diverges then Wed/Thu, however
agreement exists at least on the moisture axis pushing south of 
the area so drier conditions still look supported. Previous 
discussion follows...


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017/ 

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The long term period begins with high pressure in control over the
southeast states and stalled frontal boundary poised for a return
along the gulf coast. It will take most of the weekend but indeed
a substantial moisture return occurs ahead of a strong shortwave
moving NE out of the 4 corners region and into Texas. Slightly
diffluent pattern aloft develops as well which should allow for
good coverage of showers by Sunday. Instability, especially
surface based, is limited with this system but enough dynamics to
warrant isolated thunder mention in mainly elevated convection.

After this first wave, models diverge for pretty much the entire
duration of the long term period with the GFS a persistently wet
pattern and the ECMWF a largely dry one. Both have a second
shortwave on the heels of the first coming out of Texas but return
flow is much more pronounced with the GFS ahead of this feature.
Without much of anything to go on to favor one model over the
other, will continue with a blend for this cycle slightly favoring
the drier ECMWF for now.



18Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be W-NW through the
period. High level clouds will move in from the south between
09-15Z. Wind speeds will be 7kt or less overnight, then 6-10kt
through the day tomorrow. Tighter pressure gradient after 18-21Z
could increase winds in afternoon before diminishing into the
Friday night period. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.



Athens          35  51  29  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         36  48  31  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     28  41  24  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Cartersville    31  45  27  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        39  54  33  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     35  47  30  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           38  56  30  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            30  45  26  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  35  50  28  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         42  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0 




LONG TERM....Deese/Baker