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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
752 
FXUS62 KFFC 191121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Surface analysis shows a wedge building down from the NE. Low 
clouds, fog and drizzle have overspread much of the CWFA. Do expect 
the low clouds to lift today, but skies shouldn't completely clear 
across the northern two thirds of the CWFA. Along and south of a 
line from Columbus to Macon to Dublin, some breaks in the clouds are 
possible, and this area could get a few hours of sun. 

The models have not done well with the anomalously warm temperatures 
for the last several days. So, have chosen the blend and bumped up 
the temps a few degrees outside of the wedge today. Just did a 
general bump up a degree or two for Tuesdays temps.

The models typically try and wipe the wedge out a little too soon. 
With high pressure building aloft and good flow off of the GOM, do 
think the wedge should retreat a bit on Tuesday...and should be 
confined to the extreme NE portion of the forecast area.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Overall static pattern continues through the majority of the extended
forecast period as the region remains under the southwesterly upper-
level flow between ridging to the east/southeast and the persistent
trough over the western U.S. This will continue the moist and warm
weather through the period. Short wave passing to the northwest and 
brushing the area mid-week pushes a rather diffuse frontal boundary 
into the region Wednesday/Thursday. Still looking at some instability
but minimal dynamics and low-level lift with limited shear so threat
for severe thunderstorms looks minimal. 

Next organized system still timed for the weekend period, although
there continues to be noticeable differences amongst the medium-range
models concerning the strength and timing of the system. I have
generally kept somewhat of a blended approach at this time which
spreads the better chances through the weekend. GFS solution presents  
a much quicker and more dynamic system and points to enough
instability to include thunder for the weekend. 

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals through the
period. 

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958    
                                        1986                
                                        1961                
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958    
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958    
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958    
                                        1981                

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015    
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015    
                                        1994        1934    
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015    
                                        1917                
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015    
                1986                                        

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885    
                1925                                        
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896    
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958    
                                        1971                
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958    

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963    
                            1963                            
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963    
                1949                                        
                1917                                        
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963    
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963    

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939    
                1980                                        
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939    
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963    
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963    
                1909                                        

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989    
                                                    1967    
                                                    1947    
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989    
                                                    1947    
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989    
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901    
                1930                                        

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967    
                            1967                            
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967    
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967    
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967    


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
LIFR cigs/vsbsy have developed within the wedge this morning. A
slow lifting of cigs/vsbys expected this morning, with MVFR
expected by the early afternoon. Models tend to be too fast with
lifting the cigs and eroding the wedge. New data is suggesting
there could be a few breaks in the MVFR cig this afternoon, but
not confident enough at this time to go sct. If the deck does sct
out, there should also be a bkn/ovc VFR deck above. Expect IFR
cigs again tonight. 


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... 
Med confidence cigs/vsbys. High confidence remaining elements. 

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  57  77  61 /  20  10  10  50 
Atlanta         76  59  76  62 /  10  10  20  50 
Blairsville     62  54  69  58 /  20  10  20  50 
Cartersville    72  58  76  62 /  10  10  20  50 
Columbus        81  61  82  64 /  10  10  20  40 
Gainesville     63  55  72  60 /  20  10  20  60 
Macon           80  60  81  63 /   5  10  20  40 
Rome            73  58  78  62 /  10  10  20  40 
Peachtree City  76  58  78  62 /  10  10  20  50 
Vidalia         81  61  82  64 /   5  10  10  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NListemaa