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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 221737 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

For 18z TAFs (Aviation).


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

A broad area of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes region 
into the south central U.S. will remain in place through the short 
term with a weak upper low continuing to linger over the southeast. 
With sufficient low level moisture in place, isolated to widely 
scattered diurnal convection can be expected. This afternoon and 
evening activity will be fairly short-lived and will diminish with 
the loss of daytime heating. As was seen on Thursday evening, a 
couple of storms could become briefly strong with frequent lightning 
and gusty winds.

Saturday will bring a similar forecast with isolated diurnal 
convection, primarily across the western half of the CWA. Overall 
convective coverage will likely be less than on Friday as the weak 
upper low drops south and westward away from the area.

Temperatures through the short term will remain several degrees 
above average. Highs Friday and Saturday will be largely in the mid-
to-upper 80s with lows Saturday morning generally in the 60s 


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Extended forecast period continues to appear mainly dry and warm as
the region remains under a large but not particularly strong upper-
level ridge through the majority of the period. Despite a persistent
weakness in the upper ridge over the region, a generally stable
airmass should keep any diurnal convective development in check.
Chances for precipitation start creeping back into the forecast by
the end of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and a fairly
sharp upper trough and associated surface low/cold front approach the
forecast area. 



18Z Update...
Cu field developing in earnest now, specifically between KATL and
KCSG. Similar to yesterday, sufficient instability combined with
upr level impulses traversing ENE flow aloft will be enough to
support widely sct convection in the next couple hours through at
least 02-04z. VFR conditions should prevail outside of any
SHRA/TSRA. Patchy ground fog overnight could briefly reduce vsbys
to 3-5sm btwn 10-12z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convective development this afternoon.
High on all other elements.



Athens          87  66  86  65 /  20  20  10  10 
Atlanta         87  69  86  68 /  20  20  20  10 
Blairsville     83  61  83  60 /  30  20  20  10 
Cartersville    88  67  87  64 /  20  20  20  10 
Columbus        90  70  88  68 /  20  20  20  10 
Gainesville     85  67  84  66 /  20  20  10  10 
Macon           89  67  87  66 /  30  20  20  10 
Rome            89  66  88  64 /  20  20  20  10 
Peachtree City  87  67  86  64 /  30  20  20  10 
Vidalia         89  69  87  68 /  20  20  20  10 




LONG TERM....Baker