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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 221942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Widely scattered thunderstorms have quickly developed across east-
central Georgia, especially between Augusta and Macon, where nickel-
sized hail was reported earlier this aftn around Augusta. Overall 
severe threat is low but "downdraft" CAPE in the 800-1100 J/KG range 
certainly high enough to support very localized microbursts in 
strongest cells. Downed trees and powerlines occurred in southern 
Pulaski county yesterday with similar environment.

Focus for convection, aside from high CAPE environment, is a weak 
upper level circulation /depicted by latest WV satl imagery/ getting 
better organized across south Georgia. This feature will continue to 
drag moisture and weak upr lvl "impulses" from NE to SW across the 
area through tomorrow (Saturday). Hit or miss mainly afternoon & 
evening storms can be expected into the weekend but most areas will 
remain dry. 

Little change in temperatures expected in the short term, with above 
normal conditions continuing into the weekend.



.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Slight differences in late week frontal timing and expanse of
attendant moisture field. Not impressive at the moment and meager
instability but if anything slightly adjusted back a few pops. 
Forecast largely on track with little change otherwise. Previous 
discussion follows...


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ 

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Extended forecast period continues to appear mainly dry and warm as
the region remains under a large but not particularly strong upper-
level ridge through the majority of the period. Despite a persistent
weakness in the upper ridge over the region, a generally stable
airmass should keep any diurnal convective development in check.
Chances for precipitation start creeping back into the forecast by
the end of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and a fairly
sharp upper trough and associated surface low/cold front approach the
forecast area. 



18Z Update...
Cu field developing in earnest now, specifically between KATL and
KCSG. Similar to yesterday, sufficient instability combined with
upr level impulses traversing ENE flow aloft will be enough to
support widely sct convection in the next couple hours through at
least 02-04z. VFR conditions should prevail outside of any
SHRA/TSRA. Patchy ground fog overnight could briefly reduce vsbys
to 3-5sm btwn 10-12z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convective development this afternoon.
High on all other elements.



Athens          67  86  65  85 /  20  10   5  10 
Atlanta         70  85  68  85 /  20  10   5  10 
Blairsville     56  82  59  81 /  20  20   5  10 
Cartersville    67  86  64  85 /  20  10  10  10 
Columbus        70  88  68  88 /  20  20  10  10 
Gainesville     68  84  66  83 /  20  10   5  10 
Macon           65  87  65  87 /  20  10   5  10 
Rome            66  87  64  87 /  20  20  10  10 
Peachtree City  66  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  10 
Vidalia         70  87  68  87 /  20  20   5  10 




LONG TERM....20/Baker