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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 172340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Updated for the 00Z TAF update.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Continued more of the same with afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
cross the area today and monday. Will also see more low clouds and 
fog in the morning with a very weak summertime pattern in place 
across the region. The main features across the area continue to be 
the large upper level ridge and the weak upper level disturbance 
that have been rotating over GA/AL/Northern FL and continue to help 
enhance diurnally driven convection everyday. The ridge has been 
helping to suppress the activity but it is also keeping this weak 
pattern in place with no signs of this changing anytime soon. still 
expecting strong storms to develop in the short term with isolated 
severe storms as well. The greatest threats will be gusty winds, 
frequent lightning, period of heavy rain and small hail. 

For those with outdoor activities planned today, stay weather aware. 
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by 
lightning. You should seek shelter if you see lightning or hear 
thunder. In addition, Heat Indices will range from the middle to 
upper 90s across much of the state today and Monday. If you plan on 
being outdoors for long periods of time, take frequent breaks to 
cool off and stay hydrated.


LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Long term period begins with the continued pattern of mid and
upper level ridge firmly entrenched over the area but plenty of
moisture trapped at the low levels under this feature. This
pattern will continue into Wed and the first part of Thu
characterized by low to mid range chance pops and mainly a heavy
rain potential as mid levels warm to -5C at 500mb. 

Ridge does flatten out a bit into late week as shortwave energy 
flows in from the central plains and travels across northern 
portions of the Tennessee Valley. This will allow for a temporary 
increase in pops across the northern CWA by Friday afternoon. Main
moisture axis and energy looks to remain north of the area
thereafter and a return to low to mid range sct pops looks in the

Did reload latest long term guidance but left pops largely alone
as they represent above thinking well.


18Z Update...
More diurnal convection today and Monday. Ceilings are in the 
MVFR to VFR range across the area and will eventually become all 
VFR later today. Will see more MVFR and some IFR ceilings move 
back in overnight through Mon morning. Ceilings will lift through 
Monday afternoon similar to this morning. Winds are expected to be
mainly out of the SW at 8kt or less. Will see some gust to near 
20kt in and around any TSRA development this afternoon and Monday 
afternoon. VSBYs will stay VFR except some brief periods of IFR 
VSBYs in and around thunderstorms activity. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements



00Z Update...
Convection dissipating but there could be a few more around
through 04Z. Expect scattered afternoon and evening convection
again Monday afternoon. VFR cigs through 09Z then strato will 
develop late tonight with most areas staying MVFR. Cigs will
become VFR by late morning on Monday. Winds will be light and west
to north through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on cigs late tonight and early Monday morning.
High on remaining elements.



Athens          71  92  72  94 /  20  40  30  30 
Atlanta         72  90  73  92 /  20  50  40  30 
Blairsville     65  88  66  87 /  30  50  40  40 
Cartersville    70  91  71  92 /  40  50  40  30 
Columbus        72  90  72  92 /  20  40  40  40 
Gainesville     70  91  72  91 /  20  50  40  30 
Macon           71  90  71  93 /  30  40  30  40 
Rome            71  92  71  92 /  50  40  40  30 
Peachtree City  71  90  71  92 /  30  50  40  30 
Vidalia         73  91  73  93 /  20  40  30  40