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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 231129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Cold front currently moving across AL and central TN bringing 
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Southeastern U.S. The 
precipitation shield associated with the trough/front will continue 
to spread eastward with the actual front moving into far western GA 
right around daybreak.  

The cold front should move through most of the CWA by late 
morning/early afternoon. As the front exits the state...instability 
indices and shear values increase a bit and we may see some strong 
to near severe storms this afternoon for areas east of an ATL to MCN 
line. The biggest threat will be periods of heavy rain...gusty 
winds...and frequent lightning strikes. The current forecast models 
are showing this frontal system completely exiting the area by 00z 
Tues with a much drier and cooler airmass pushing into the area 
through Tuesday. 

Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are expected behind the cold 
front Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with 
highs Tues mainly in the 60s to near 70. 


LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins with a very strong mid level trough
moving through with a very much mid winter appearance. This will
usher in the coldest air of this young fall season by far with mid
to upper 30s for the northern tier on Wednesday morning and now
only recovering to the upper 50s for Wednesday afternoon. There
will be some wrap around clouds with the passage of the trough but
at this time, moisture looks too shallow to result in any

High pressure remains in control for much of the week with
continued cold conditions during the overnight as there could be
some lower 30s for the NE mountains Wed night into Thu morning.
Next wx system will be on tap for the weekend as another cold 
front moves into NW GA late on Friday. Does not appear at this 
time as if this one will be able to tap into the gulf so front 
will have to bring all its moisture with it. Looks limited at best
for precip chances and will limit to low end chance in the grids 
for now.

Looks like the ECMWF has come around to the GFS solution of a
cleaner FROPA Sat into Sun. Still will hold onto some pops through
the first half of the weekend for now but if trends continue,
should be able to drop altogether with subsequent forecasts.
Another shot of cold temps to follow the frontal passage with a
return to lows in the 30s.



12Z Update...
IFR ceilings to start this TAF set with things improving rapidly as
the frontal system moves through the area. Showers ahead of the 
main front are moving across the state right and we should see 
some thunderstorms later this morning. Best timing for TSRA in the
ATL area will be generally between 14-16z and a bit later at AHN 
and MCN. Precip will come to an end around 18z in the ATL area 
with ceilings lifting and SCT out by 20z. Winds starting out of 
the SE and turning to the S and then the W and NW through the end
of the TAF set. Wind speeds around 10kt and will see some gust 
near 20kt through the afternoon. Wind speeds diminish after 00z to
8kt or less. Will see some more gust Tuesday afternoon also. 
VSBYs will be in the MVFR to VFR range through the period.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on all elements.



Athens          71  48  69  42 /  90  30   0   0 
Atlanta         70  51  66  43 /  90   5   0   0 
Blairsville     67  43  61  35 /  90  20   5   5 
Cartersville    69  47  64  39 /  90   5   0   0 
Columbus        74  51  70  46 /  90   5   0   0 
Gainesville     69  49  65  42 /  90  20   0   0 
Macon           75  49  72  42 /  90  20   0   0 
Rome            69  46  64  39 /  90   5   0   0 
Peachtree City  72  47  67  40 /  90   5   0   0 
Vidalia         78  55  76  48 /  70  50   5   5 


Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for the following 
zones: Fannin...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White.



LONG TERM....Deese