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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
807 
FXUS62 KFFC 180536
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
136 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z TAF update.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Continued more of the same with afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
cross the area today and monday. Will also see more low clouds and 
fog in the morning with a very weak summertime pattern in place 
across the region. The main features across the area continue to be 
the large upper level ridge and the weak upper level disturbance 
that have been rotating over GA/AL/Northern FL and continue to help 
enhance diurnally driven convection everyday. The ridge has been 
helping to suppress the activity but it is also keeping this weak 
pattern in place with no signs of this changing anytime soon. still 
expecting strong storms to develop in the short term with isolated 
severe storms as well. The greatest threats will be gusty winds, 
frequent lightning, period of heavy rain and small hail. 

For those with outdoor activities planned today, stay weather aware. 
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by 
lightning. You should seek shelter if you see lightning or hear 
thunder. In addition, Heat Indices will range from the middle to 
upper 90s across much of the state today and Monday. If you plan on 
being outdoors for long periods of time, take frequent breaks to 
cool off and stay hydrated.

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Long term period begins with the continued pattern of mid and
upper level ridge firmly entrenched over the area but plenty of
moisture trapped at the low levels under this feature. This
pattern will continue into Wed and the first part of Thu
characterized by low to mid range chance pops and mainly a heavy
rain potential as mid levels warm to -5C at 500mb. 

Ridge does flatten out a bit into late week as shortwave energy 
flows in from the central plains and travels across northern 
portions of the Tennessee Valley. This will allow for a temporary 
increase in pops across the northern CWA by Friday afternoon. Main
moisture axis and energy looks to remain north of the area
thereafter and a return to low to mid range sct pops looks in the
offing.

Did reload latest long term guidance but left pops largely alone
as they represent above thinking well.

Deese

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
More diurnal convection today and Monday. Ceilings are in the 
MVFR to VFR range across the area and will eventually become all 
VFR later today. Will see more MVFR and some IFR ceilings move 
back in overnight through Mon morning. Ceilings will lift through 
Monday afternoon similar to this morning. Winds are expected to be
mainly out of the SW at 8kt or less. Will see some gust to near 
20kt in and around any TSRA development this afternoon and Monday 
afternoon. VSBYs will stay VFR except some brief periods of IFR 
VSBYs in and around thunderstorms activity. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Tranquil and generally clear conditions can be expected towards
daybreak where a few MVFR ceilings may then present 
themselves...mainly near the ATL and perhaps CSG areas. Have 
accounted for this potential in the TAFs altho confidence is not 
extremely high. Could also see some patches of fog but vsby 
reductions should remain minimal. Any low clouds/fog should give 
way to the typical summertime VFR cu field by late morning/early 
afternoon. Scattered convection is expected by mid-late afternoon
with chances continuing thru the evening. Winds on the west side 
thru the period between 4-6kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium on lower cigs Monday morning.
High on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  72  94  74 /  40  30  30  20 
Atlanta         90  73  92  75 /  50  40  30  20 
Blairsville     88  66  87  68 /  50  40  40  20 
Cartersville    91  71  92  72 /  50  40  30  20 
Columbus        90  72  92  76 /  40  40  40  20 
Gainesville     91  72  91  74 /  50  40  30  20 
Macon           90  71  93  74 /  40  30  40  20 
Rome            92  71  92  73 /  40  40  30  20 
Peachtree City  90  71  92  73 /  50  40  30  20 
Vidalia         91  73  93  75 /  40  30  40  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...Kovacik