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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
928 
FXUS62 KFFC 191948
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
248 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Weak CAD wedge in place across north Georgia has gradually eroded 
through the day, though it still hangs firm in typical areas of 
northeast Georgia. This has made for quite the temperature gradient 
across metro Atlanta with areas south and west rising well into the 
70s and areas north and east remaining in the 50s. Overnight, the 
weak wedge will remain entrenched across northeast Georgia. Low 
clouds and areas of fog should also increase again overnight with 
low-level moisture remaining in place. 

Strong upper-level high pressure over the Atlantic will continue 
building into the area on Tuesday, bringing continued very warm 
temperatures to the region. Any remaining vestiges of the wedge in 
northeast Georgia will break down on Tuesday, allowing these areas 
to warm significantly as well. By Tuesday evening into Tuesday 
night, the chance for light showers will increase as a weak upper-
level wave moves northward around the high. Precipitation amounts 
during this time frame will be light.

Temperatures through the short term will remain well above average, 
more typical of April. Low temperatures both Tuesday morning and 
Wednesday morning appear likely to break some record warm minimum 
temperatures, and high temperatures Tuesday will be very close to 
record highs for the date as well.

RW

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Only minor changes made to the forecast with mainly southwesterly
flow through the long term. This will result in some scattered 
showers and thunderstorms, increasing later Wednesday into 
Thursday and again later Saturday through Sunday. A front tries to
pull through the area early next week which may help to change 
the airmass/weather pattern. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018/ 

Overall static pattern continues through the majority of the extended
forecast period as the region remains under the southwesterly upper-
level flow between ridging to the east/southeast and the persistent
trough over the western U.S. This will continue the moist and warm
weather through the period. Short wave passing to the northwest and 
brushing the area mid-week pushes a rather diffuse frontal boundary 
into the region Wednesday/Thursday. Still looking at some instability
but minimal dynamics and low-level lift with limited shear so threat
for severe thunderstorms looks minimal. 

Next organized system still timed for the weekend period, although
there continues to be noticeable differences amongst the medium-range
models concerning the strength and timing of the system. I have
generally kept somewhat of a blended approach at this time which
spreads the better chances through the weekend. GFS solution presents  
a much quicker and more dynamic system and points to enough
instability to include thunder for the weekend. 

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals through the
period. 

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958    
                                        1986                
                                        1961                
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958    
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958    
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958    
                                        1981                

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015    
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015    
                                        1994        1934    
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015    
                                        1917                
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015    
                1986                                        

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885    
                1925                                        
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896    
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958    
                                        1971                
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958    

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963    
                            1963                            
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963    
                1949                                        
                1917                                        
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963    
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963    

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939    
                1980                                        
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939    
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963    
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963    
                1909                                        

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989    
                                                    1967    
                                                    1947    
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989    
                                                    1947    
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989    
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901    
                1930                                        

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
IFR and LIFR cigs that persisted across ATL area sites through 
midday have begun to scour out from the south. Expect this trend 
to continue through the afternoon with ceilings becoming largely 
MVFR at ATL area sites with a few breaks in the MVFR ceiling 
possible. Ceilings farther south in MCN vicinity will be more 
likely to remain VFR this afternoon. Ceilings and vsbys will once 
again drop into the IFR/LIFR range by early Tuesday morning and 
gradually improve to MVFR by Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain 
from the SE through the period 5-10kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on ceilings.
High confidence on all other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  76  62  76 /  10  20  30  30 
Atlanta         59  76  63  76 /  10  20  30  30 
Blairsville     54  69  58  70 /  20  20  50  50 
Cartersville    58  76  62  77 /  10  20  30  30 
Columbus        61  80  65  80 /   5  20  20  20 
Gainesville     55  71  60  71 /  10  20  40  40 
Macon           60  80  64  80 /  10  10  20  20 
Rome            58  77  63  79 /  10  20  30  30 
Peachtree City  58  77  63  77 /  10  20  30  30 
Vidalia         61  81  64  84 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RW