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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 230529 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 737 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ 

Convection continues to persist into the evening hours, but latest
radar trends and Hi-Res models agree on a diminishing trend and
end to the activity over the next couple hours. Have made some
minor updates to hourly grids, with the overall forecast through
the short term period on track. Models continue to show more
limited PoP chances for tomorrow with warm temperatures


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Widely scattered thunderstorms have quickly developed across east-
central Georgia, especially between Augusta and Macon, where nickel-
sized hail was reported earlier this aftn around Augusta. Overall 
severe threat is low but "downdraft" CAPE in the 800-1100 J/KG range 
certainly high enough to support very localized microbursts in 
strongest cells. Downed trees and powerlines occurred in southern 
Pulaski county yesterday with similar environment.

Focus for convection, aside from high CAPE environment, is a weak 
upper level circulation /depicted by latest WV satl imagery/ getting 
better organized across south Georgia. This feature will continue to 
drag moisture and weak upr lvl "impulses" from NE to SW across the 
area through tomorrow (Saturday). Hit or miss mainly afternoon & 
evening storms can be expected into the weekend but most areas will 
remain dry. 

Little change in temperatures expected in the short term, with above 
normal conditions continuing into the weekend.


LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Slight differences in late week frontal timing and expanse of
attendant moisture field. Not impressive at the moment and meager
instability but if anything slightly adjusted back a few pops. 
Forecast largely on track with little change otherwise. Previous 
discussion follows...


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/ 

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Extended forecast period continues to appear mainly dry and warm as
the region remains under a large but not particularly strong upper-
level ridge through the majority of the period. Despite a persistent
weakness in the upper ridge over the region, a generally stable
airmass should keep any diurnal convective development in check.
Chances for precipitation start creeping back into the forecast by
the end of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and a fairly
sharp upper trough and associated surface low/cold front approach the
forecast area. 



06Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period except for Patchy
or Areas of IFR-MVFR fog is possible for 08-13Z. Few-Sct cu 
3500-6000 ft, possibly briefly Bkn. Convection expected to be 
limited today and have no confidence to include in any taf at
this time. Surface winds calm or light and variable becoming
ENE 10 kts or less during the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to High confidence on all elements.



Athens          86  65  85  65 /  10   5  10   5 
Atlanta         85  68  85  67 /  10   5  10   5 
Blairsville     82  59  81  59 /  20   5  10   5 
Cartersville    86  64  85  64 /  10  10  10   5 
Columbus        88  68  88  68 /  20  10  10   5 
Gainesville     84  66  83  65 /  10   5  10   5 
Macon           87  65  87  65 /  10   5  10   5 
Rome            87  64  87  64 /  20  10  10   5 
Peachtree City  85  65  85  64 /  10  10  10   5 
Vidalia         87  68  87  68 /  20   5  10   5