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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 121756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1256 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Mid-day wind gusts in the metro area are in the 30-35mph range, so
have gone ahead and expanded the wind advisory to include most of
north Georgia, including the Atlanta metro. Updated Advisory area
is included below. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A dry cold front moving across TN this morning will push into NW GA 
around sunrise and continue move SE through the day. This frontal 
boundary does not have a lot of deep layer moisture associated with 
it so all we will see is increased mid to high level clouds across 
the area. There may be a few brief periods of flurries in the N GA 
mountains this morning but no accumulations expected. The biggest 
concern with this front will be the increased winds today. A tight 
pressure gradient sets up across the regions just ahead of and 
behind this front and we should see gusty WNW winds increasing just 
after sunrise and continuing through tonight. Some locations 
especially across the NE GA mountain counties will see wind advisory 
criteria of 20 mph sustained and Gusts to 35 mph. Have issued a wind 
advisory for that area from 7am this morning to 10pm tonight. A 
colder airmass will move in across the state behind this cold front 
with low temps Wed morning running mainly in the teen and 20s across 
the CWA. Highs Wed will only get up into the 40s with a few 
locations across central GA see near 50 deg readings.


LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

A stalled front looks to be deteriorating near the northern
Georgia boarder at the start of the long term period. Although it
should remain dry on the southern side of the boarder, some 
guidance suggests some possible snow flurries and light showers 
further north in the Smokey mountains. By Friday, moisture should
increase ahead of a shortwave trough embedded in the larger scale
troughing pattern. While enough lift should be present for an 
increase in cloud cover, chances for precip should be contained 
further towards the southeast as a surface low begins to form
along the baroclinic zone on the coast that will move northeast
ahead of the shortwave.

A quite Saturday is then expected before another stronger mid-level
trough impacts the region. With south to southwesterly low-level 
flow bringing a large fetch of Gulf moisture into the region ahead
of a frontal system, rain showers should increase and become
widespread from Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of the front. 
Model solutions which were once divergent are now coming into 
agreement with this system, however, discrepancies still remain 
as to it's evolution and will need to be monitored going forward. 
Either way, this system looks to be the best chance of precip 
going forward with a preliminary inch of rainfall expected across 
the forecast area.



18Z Update...
VFR ceilings are expected through the period. This afternoon as a
front moves through the area, expect to see periods of 3000-3500
ft ceilings. Wind speeds remain the main concern. NW at 12-18kt
with gusts to 30kt are expected this afternoon. Speeds will
decrease overnight, then increase to 7-10kt from the southwest
after 12-14Z Wednesday. Expect clearing skies overnight, with
FEW250 Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... 
High confidence on all elements.



Athens          51  26  47  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         47  27  46  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     40  19  41  27 /   5   0   0   5 
Cartersville    45  25  46  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        54  30  51  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     46  26  44  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           55  28  50  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            46  25  47  31 /   0   0   0   5 
Peachtree City  49  27  48  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         59  32  52  35 /   0   0   0   0 


Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for the following 
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Lumpkin...Madison...Murray...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Paulding...Pickens...Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...Towns...



LONG TERM....NListemaa