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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
649 
FXUS62 KFFC 130559
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1029 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

UPDATE...

Update to expire out the Wind Advisory. Winds will still be
elevated tonight, especially across the higher terrain. Expect
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts upwards of 35 mph on
occasion. Given this is localized to the higher ridges and that it
should tapper off in the next couple of hours...felt we could let
the Advisory expire and issue a Special Weather Statement until
06Z for NE GA.

Otherwise, forecast looks on track. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

00Z UPDATE... Northwest winds remain elevated/gusty this evening 
as a deep trough pivots into New England. At the surface, the cold
front has exited off the southeast coast with high pressure 
building into the region from the west. The tight pressure 
gradient between the departing front and incoming high does not 
relax until we get into the early morning hours Wednesday. So 
current thinking is that Wind Advisory timing should be good 
through 10pm. We will continue to monitor the winds, but still 
seeing some sustained 20mph across north Georgia. Temperatures are
forecast to drop into the teens across far NE Georgia to the 
mid/upper 20s elsewhere. Add wind and this will lead to wind 
chills in the the single digits up in the higher elevations to 
upper teens/low 20s by sunrise. Be sure to bundle up tomorrow 
morning! 

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Short term forecast relatively benign. Cold front moving through the 
state will bring drier and cooler air to the state into late week. 
Increased cloud cover this afternoon is already starting to 
dissipate over north Georgia as the front makes forward progress. 
Tight pressure gradient is producing high winds, and Wind Advisory 
remains in effect until 10 PM tonight. Expect wind speeds to 
diminish somewhat overnight, and more significantly Wednesday as the 
gradient relaxes. Temperatures will make a return to the 20s 
Wednesday morning, with highs in the 40s to low 50s. A gradual warm 
up is expected into the long term, with lows on Thursday in the 30s. 

31

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
A dry cold front will move slowly south across the CWFA during the 
day on Thursday, and finally push into the Florida panhandle by late 
Friday. High pressure will briefly build in for Saturday, but the 
high center should move offshore by early Sunday as a low pressure 
center from the western GOM moves onshore. Abundant moisture is 
expected just ahead of the system, and rain chances should begin to 
increase late Sunday into Monday. There are still some differences 
in the models, but the ECMWF and GFS both show high PoPs across the 
NW corner of the CWFA by Sunday night. 

No major changes to most elements within the long term forecast 
period. However, did bump pops up Sunday night into Monday.

NListemaa


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR Ceilings...No precip...No restrictions to VSBYs expected. The
biggest concern will be the winds today. Winds will sty out of 
the NW to SW though the period but wind speeds may still be an 
issue. There are still a few locations with winds gusting to 20kt 
but they should diminish to 10kt or less over the next few hours.
Will see winds pick back up this afternoon but should only see 
winds in the 10-15kt range with very little gust. after 00z Thu 
winds will die back down to 10kt or less. 

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          47  35  55  33 /   0   0   0  10 
Atlanta         46  36  54  34 /   0   0   0  10 
Blairsville     42  29  46  25 /   0   0   5  10 
Cartersville    46  33  50  30 /   0   0   5  10 
Columbus        51  37  59  38 /   0   0   0  10 
Gainesville     44  35  51  33 /   0   0   0  10 
Macon           51  35  59  37 /   0   0   0   5 
Rome            47  33  50  29 /   0   0   5  10 
Peachtree City  48  34  56  33 /   0   0   0  10 
Vidalia         51  37  61  41 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01