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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
418 
FXUS62 KFFC 161936
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Seems to be no real focus for thunderstorm development again today
except for leftover boundaries. Heavy rain continues to be a
threat as storms are slow moving. Upper air shows a weakening 
upper ridge with a broad trough forming over the southeast during 
the period. Models indicating a front drifting into north GA 
Tuesday afternoon/evening with some drier air spreading into the 
state. Still looks like basically a diurnal pattern through the
period...although some storms could linger into the overnight
tonight. For Tuesday...have kept pops in the 40 to 50 percent 
range. For tomorrow night have dried out the far north after 
06z...but left low pops for the remainder of the area. No big 
changes to temperatures in the short term.



41


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...


SNELSON

Still appears area will see only slow shift to NW flow aloft this 
week with broad upper ridge building over the western and central 
CONUS and trough over the midwest states. By the weekend, however, 
medium range guidance now showing high amplitude trough digging SSE 
into the eastern states on Saturday. While we may not see much 
cooler temps, could see slightly drier air at sfc and aloft, though 
chc of storms will continue with cold air aloft and stronger mid 
level flow. Until then, will continue to see mostly diurnally-driven 
afternoon and evening convection though with well above average PW, 
could also see isolated overnight activity as well. As flow aloft 
eventually becomes WNW, could see some development of MCS though not 
seeing confirmation of this in model QPF. 

Heat indices should remain 95 to 101, which is below advisory 
threshold, through the extended though will continue to monitor. 
Tropical activity thankfully still not seen in model progs or NHC 
outlooks. 


&&



PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate 
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an 
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between 
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I 
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast 
cycle. 

20

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Some mvfr ceilings were lingering...but should continue to improve 
to widespread sct-bkn035-045. Showers and thunderstorms should 
develop in any location with no real feature to focus on. There 
is also the potential showers and storms could linger beyond 00z 
this evening into portions of the overnight but not confident 
which taf sites would be affected. Winds should remain on 
the west side...mostly southwest 5 to 7kt and diminish 
overnight. Some potential for ifr again overnight with such a moist 
airmass. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements except medium on ifr for Tuesday morning. 

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  30 
Atlanta         75  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  30 
Blairsville     67  85  65  85 /  50  50  30  20 
Cartersville    72  90  71  90 /  50  50  40  30 
Columbus        75  91  75  92 /  50  50  50  50 
Gainesville     71  89  71  89 /  50  50  40  30 
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  50  50  40  50 
Rome            73  91  70  91 /  40  50  40  20 
Peachtree City  72  90  72  91 /  50  50  40  40 
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  50  50  40  60 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41