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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
661 
FXUS62 KFFC 231055 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

An upper trough continues over the se cwa and drifts into the 
northern Gulf of Mexico during the day as more or a weak upper low.
This seems to give the best chances for highly diurnal convection to 
the far n and far southern portion of central GA as these 2 
locations are where the best forecast instability is located. At 
this time, my thinking is that the precip potential should only go 
into the early evening hours tonight.

For Sunday, the upper low drifts w along the gulf coast states with 
Hurricane Maria moving n over the western Atlantic. A surface ridge 
of high pressure will have built down the Appalachians. This seems
to keep precip chances too low to mention in the forecasts at this
time.

A warm airmass continues over the area with forecast high 
temperatures running 4-7 degrees above normal today and 3-5 degrees 
above normal for Sunday. Forecast low temperatures are running around 
5 degrees above normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No real changes to the recent extended forecast trends seen with this
model cycle. Medium range models continue to keep the region under a
large, but not particularly strong, upper-level ridge through all 
but the tail-end of the period. Upper trough breaks down the ridge as
we head into Thursday/Friday of next week and a surface trough 
develops across the coastal Carolinas and into central/south Georgia 
in the wake of Maria as she sweeps up the east coast. Persistent 
northeast to north low-level flow keeps the region stable through the
period, and this stable airmass and the absence of strong upper 
dynamics or low-level forcing keeps POPs low with this late-week 
system. Dry and above seasonal normal temperatures reign until then, 
replaced by more seasonal temperatures as we head into next weekend. 

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy morning fog dissipating quickly. Otherwise VFR conditions 
expected into tonight. Few-Bkn cu 3500-6000 ft. Convection 
expected to be limited today and have no confidence to include in 
any taf at this time. Surface winds becoming ENE 10 kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to High confidence on all elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  65  86  65 /  10   0   5   5 
Atlanta         87  68  85  68 /  10   5   5   5 
Blairsville     83  58  82  60 /  20  10  10   5 
Cartersville    87  64  86  64 /  10   5   5   5 
Columbus        89  68  88  68 /  10   5  10   5 
Gainesville     86  66  85  66 /  10   5   5   5 
Macon           88  66  87  66 /  10   5   5   5 
Rome            87  64  87  64 /  20  10   5   5 
Peachtree City  87  65  85  64 /  10   5   5   5 
Vidalia         89  68  87  68 /  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL