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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
127 
FXUS62 KFFC 151539
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1039 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017


.UPDATE...
Forecast is in good shape this morning and have not made any
changes. A cold front has cleared the area this morning...with
high pressure building into the region in its wake. This will keep
conditions tranquil today with temperatures noticeably lower than
yesterday with highs lower 40s north to near 60 central. The
pressure gradient is expected to tighten between the post frontal sfc
high pressure airmass and a deepening coastal low off the NC
Coast. This will allow for breezy conditions this afternoon and
into the evening until the center of the high moves closer to the
area overnight.

Kovacik

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 555 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017/ 

UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

The main thing to note is a moist upper level flow resulting in
high clouds across the area. As an upper level trough approaches
later today and then weakens, the high level moisture will move
out late today and tonight. No precip is expected through Saturday.

Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the east coast
during the day as surface high pressure builds over the southern 
plains. This will allow some gusty winds to develop across the 
area. Guidance could be under doing the wind potential, most so for
n GA, and this will just need to be monitored. With surface high
pressure moving across the area on Saturday, much less wind is
expected.  

Forecast high temperatures are running 3-7 degrees below normal
today and near to slightly below normal for Saturday. Forecast low
temperatures are running 6-8 degrees below normal tonight.

Overall confidence is high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

The long term period begins as a transition one as high pressure
continues to push offshore of the Carolinas and high amplitude mid
level trough begins to push east out of the 4 corners region.
Embedded shortwaves on the east side of this trough will move into
the Tennessee Valley Sat night and into Sunday. This will quickly
transition the nil pops early Sat night into likely rain chances
late Sunday. Given moisture and lift profile, would actually see a
large area of predominant showers but this is a good start this
far out. Given strength of the shortwave, it is likely we will see
some elevated thunder and perhaps even some surface based
instability. Will therefore continue to carry isolated thunder
chances in the grids.

With broad trough remaining west of the region through Wed, would
expect disturbed pattern to continue into mid week although models
differ on the details. Have utilized a blend for this forecast
which keeps a zone of likely pops in transitioning south of the
region by tue night into Wed.

Another storm system on tap into late next week as we approach the
holiday with models actually in good agreement this far out.
Despite good agreement, run to run consistency has been all over
the place and will therefore keep pops at chance for now.

Deese

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period with just 
15,000-25,000 ft ceilings. Surface winds becoming WNW 9-14 kts 
with gusts 18-25 kts today, diminishing this evening. 
Clouds clearing late day and tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence for ceilings.
High confidence for all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         47  30  54  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     42  24  52  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Cartersville    44  26  53  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        53  31  57  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     47  31  53  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           56  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            44  27  53  33 /   0   0   0   5 
Peachtree City  49  29  55  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         62  35  59  39 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...BDL