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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
244 
FXUS62 KFFC 170737
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
337 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018


.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Precip from late evening showers/storms that have largely diminished
and pushed east will again allow for some pesky morning fog with 
patchy coverage and like other recent mornings, any lingering areas 
of sfc convergence from old boundaries can trigger a stray shower 
just about any time. Still looking like weak upper wave axis 
traversing the southern half of the CWA and a front approaching the 
north will focus the greater chance of afternoon/evening convection. 
Fcst CAPE values are on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg so a few strong 
storms can again be expected. With some mid/upper level drier air 
advecting across the north, resultant PWATs will be a bit lower than 
past days and should make storms not quite as efficient rain 
producers but isolated flooding is always a threat with any 
summertime convection.

Aforementioned front and moisture axis will be shifted farther south 
for Wednesday so have confined the pops to primarily central GA and 
give the north a welcomed break. The drier columns will allow for 
slightly warmer temps in the period, which brings us back to near 
normal in the low 90s for most areas.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Beginning of the extended forecast sees moisture returning northward
across the region. Upper-level flow continues to amplify as the
eastern U.S. upper trough deepens. Good short wave energy in the
northwesterly flow drives another sharp surface frontal boundary into
the forecast area Saturday. Combined with moderate instability and
mid-level winds, the threat for at least slightly more organized
strong to severe storms cannot be ignored. By the beginning of next
week, the upper flow begins de-amplifying some as the eastern trough
lifts and the western ridge builds back toward the region. not seeing
enough to eliminate POPs, but we are likely to see less coverage and
a return to a more diurnal convective cycle. 

20


&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Some LIFR cigs of 300-400 ft around KATL and nearby sites could
persist later this morning but will monitor as needed and covering
with tempo until 08z then IFR around 800 ft. Could have reduced
vsbys with any patchy fog development. A stray shower or storm 
develop almost any time but best chance later today in the 18-00z 
period now that cluster of late evening storms has mainly 
diminished/pushed east. Early morning winds light and VRB becoming
west near 4-7 kts and then NW by this evening with a weak front 
pushing south.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low on cigs/vsbys this morning.
Medium on precip timing/coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  72  91  72 /  40  30  20  20 
Atlanta         90  74  91  72 /  40  30  20  10 
Blairsville     84  65  85  66 /  50  30  10  10 
Cartersville    90  71  90  68 /  40  40  10  10 
Columbus        91  75  92  73 /  40  40  50  20 
Gainesville     88  71  89  71 /  40  30  20  10 
Macon           91  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30 
Rome            90  71  91  69 /  40  40  10  10 
Peachtree City  90  72  91  70 /  40  30  20  20 
Vidalia         90  74  91  74 /  60  40  60  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Baker