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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 190602

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019


Has been a game of catch up this evening as frontogenetic forcing
has been stronger than models had projected and has resulted in a
much more defined band of rainfall. Mid level instability was quite 
prominent as well with several good pics of mammatus clouds from 
residents across the forecast area. Even had some reports of 
hail/graupel across portions Harris county. Some of the hi res has 
finally picked up on this band and gradually fizzles it out 
overnight but did keep low end chance in place for the northern 
tier. Remainder of the forecast including Flood Watch is on track 
with no changes planned.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 657 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... A complex short-term 
forecast period as we seem to have a bit everything visiting some 
portion of the forecast area over the next 36 to 48 hours. Clouds 
begin increasing again tonight as the next system organizes to the 
west and approaches. Most precipitation should hold off until 
tomorrow morning after sunrise. Decent wedge builds into the state 
from the northeast tomorrow through Tuesday night. Source region not 
especially frigid, but high temperatures certainly return to below 
seasonal normals with minimum temperatures Tuesday night around 
seasonal normals. This puts the far northeast on the borderline for 
some brief, patchy freezing rain. Not super confident for any ice 
accumulations as forecast surface wet bulb temperatures are marginal 
at best. Will need to keep a close watch on these trends. Have 
decided to go ahead and start a Flood Watch for the far northwest 
since we already have a few rivers at or forecast to go to bankfull 
and or minor flood. Will start the watch with the onset of the next 
round of rain tomorrow morning, and run it through the week. 
Although the overall axis of heaviest QPF continues to shift a bit 
north and west of the forecast area, our northwest corner remains in 
the 4-6 inch average for the week.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... The extended starts off with 
the wedge still in place Wednesday and cold temperatures at the 
surface. There is the slight potential for a short period of mixed 
rain and freezing rain just across the highest elevations of 
northeast Georgia around daybreak. No accumulations and little to no 
impacts are expected at this time. 

The main cold front will be laying over the Mid to lower MS river 
valley and slowly pushing east which will keep likely and 
categorical pops across much of the state...especially areas along 
and north of the Interstate 85 corridor. With multiple rounds of 
precipitation expected to impact northern Georgia and very high PW's 
late Wednesday through Friday, there are concerns for both flash 
flooding and river flooding. Make sure to monitor upcoming forecasts 
for any watches and or warning that may be issued. Chances for 
showers and thunderstorms continue through the end of the work week 
as the front stalls over us and weak waves move through the upper 
level flow. There's still a good bit of disagreement between the 
models, but another system looks to move through the area on late 
Saturday/Sunday bringing additional rainfall and continuing the 
chance for thunderstorms.

Overall, the highest axis of QPF through the extended looks to have 
shifted a bit more to the northwest. Either way portions of north 
and northwest Georgia are still expected to get ample rainfall 
amounts through day 7. Current QPF amounts range from 2 to 6 inches 
for areas north of an Atlanta to Athens line...0.5 to 2 inches for 
areas south of that. For more information on the excessive rainfall 
refer to the latest ESF. Temperatures through the extended will be 
well above average, aside from Wednesday for those within the wedge 
where high temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s. 



Light rain/sprinkles falling from mid cloud deck looks like it may 
linger for a few hours. Ceilings should remain vfr through the 
morning...but start to lower to mvfr this afternoon as easterly flow 
increases over the taf sites. Rain will continue to develop over the 
area through the day. Winds will remain on the east side 10kts this 
morning...increasing to 10 to 15kts and gusty after 15z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... Medium to high on all elements. 



Athens          41  44  36  49 /  40  80  80  70 
Atlanta         42  45  38  53 /  40  80  80  70 
Blairsville     34  44  36  51 /  20  80  80  80 
Cartersville    39  45  38  53 /  40  80  80  80 
Columbus        47  52  45  65 /  40  70  60  50 
Gainesville     39  42  36  47 /  40  80  80  80 
Macon           45  49  43  61 /  40  60  60  50 
Rome            37  45  39  55 /  30  80  80  80 
Peachtree City  43  47  39  57 /  40  80  80  70 
Vidalia         50  55  48  67 /  10  40  60  40 


Flood Watch from 7 AM EST Tuesday through Friday morning for the 
following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...Floyd...