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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
298 
FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
138 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1015 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ 

UPDATE...
Cold front is currently along the GA/AL border this morning. The
heaviest band of precipitation stretches from the northern 
Atlanta suburbs to just south of Columbus. There isn't much 
instability north of Interstate 20. A rumble of thunder or two is 
possible north if Interstate 20, but there is better potential for
scattered thunderstorms south of I20 for the remainder of the 
morning into the afternoon hours. The main weather hazard should 
be locally heave rainfall. A few obs have been reporting between 
1/4sm and 1sm visibilities within the showers ahead of the main 
line. 

Will make some tweaks to the back edge of the precip shield. Temps
and dews look ok for now and will only make very minor changes. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 729 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Cold front currently moving across AL and central TN bringing 
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Southeastern U.S. The 
precipitation shield associated with the trough/front will continue 
to spread eastward with the actual front moving into far western GA 
right around daybreak.  

The cold front should move through most of the CWA by late 
morning/early afternoon. As the front exits the state...instability 
indices and shear values increase a bit and we may see some strong 
to near severe storms this afternoon for areas east of an ATL to MCN 
line. The biggest threat will be periods of heavy rain...gusty 
winds...and frequent lightning strikes. The current forecast models 
are showing this frontal system completely exiting the area by 00z 
Tues with a much drier and cooler airmass pushing into the area 
through Tuesday. 

Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass are expected behind the cold 
front Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with 
highs Tues mainly in the 60s to near 70. 

01

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The long term portion begins with a very strong mid level trough
moving through with a very much mid winter appearance. This will
usher in the coldest air of this young fall season by far with mid
to upper 30s for the northern tier on Wednesday morning and now
only recovering to the upper 50s for Wednesday afternoon. There
will be some wrap around clouds with the passage of the trough but
at this time, moisture looks too shallow to result in any
precipitation.

High pressure remains in control for much of the week with
continued cold conditions during the overnight as there could be
some lower 30s for the NE mountains Wed night into Thu morning.
Next wx system will be on tap for the weekend as another cold 
front moves into NW GA late on Friday. Does not appear at this 
time as if this one will be able to tap into the gulf so front 
will have to bring all its moisture with it. Looks limited at best
for precip chances and will limit to low end chance in the grids 
for now.

Looks like the ECMWF has come around to the GFS solution of a
cleaner FROPA Sat into Sun. Still will hold onto some pops through
the first half of the weekend for now but if trends continue,
should be able to drop altogether with subsequent forecasts.
Another shot of cold temps to follow the frontal passage with a
return to lows in the 30s.

Deese



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Cold front has moved east of ATL this afternoon. Some off-on bkn
MVFR cigs are possible the next couple of hours as cold air strato
cu moves in behind the front. VFR cigs expected through the
remainder of the period. Winds have turned west and will remain on
the west side through the period. Gusts up to around 20kt possible
this afternoon and tomorrow. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements. 



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  48  69  42 /  90  20   0   0 
Atlanta         71  51  66  43 / 100  10   0   0 
Blairsville     67  43  61  35 / 100  10   5   5 
Cartersville    69  47  64  39 / 100   5   0   0 
Columbus        73  51  70  46 / 100   5   0   0 
Gainesville     69  49  65  42 / 100  10   0   0 
Macon           74  49  72  42 / 100  10   0   0 
Rome            70  46  64  39 /  90   5   0   0 
Peachtree City  71  47  67  40 / 100  10   0   0 
Vidalia         80  55  76  48 /  80  40   5   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$