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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
408 
FXUS62 KFFC 251508
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018


.UPDATE...

Made some pop adjustments for a slightly more progressive leading
edge of convection pushing southeast into central GA late this 
morning. Also limited thunder mention until this afternoon for the
south given very limited lightning threat so far this morning. 
Added mention of an isolated brief tornado threat to the HWO given
how some weak circulations and hook appendages have been observed
along the leading edge. Still looking like swath of widespread
showers to continue across the north majority of the CWA through
today and then a bit greater coverage and heavier QPF expected
late tonight into Monday with influence from another disturbance
interacting with the stalled boundary. Previous discussion
follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018/ 

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
A line of strong showers and very isolated thunderstorms is moving 
east across AL/TN and should push into the NW GA corner by 09z-10z. 
This frontal system is progressing as forecast and will bring precip 
to the state over the next few days. This front is expected to move 
into N GA this morning and stall somewhere just north of the ATL 
area. This will keep the majority of the state in continued Moist 
southerly flow out ahead of this system. Instabilities do increase 
a bit ahead of this front mainly across central and southern 
portions of the state but still only looking at general thunder 
today...No severe. This front will sink slowly south into southern 
GA Monday as strong high pressure builds into the region behind this 
frontal system. while this system is parked over the state today and 
part of Monday we will be looking at a 2 day QPF total of a half to 
1 inch of precip area wide. Temps are still expected to stay above 
seasonal norms with highs in the 60s to 80s and lows in the 50s to 
60s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
For the most part, Rain chances will have ended to start the long
term except for some small chances for light showers over the far
se cwa S and E of MCN Monday Evening. 

A lull in the rain chances is still expected Tuesday as strong 
surface high pressure moves to the eastern seaboard.

Once again, the GFS and European models are very consistent with
deep moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in
Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday as a warm
front moves N over the area. The GFS and the European models are
now much closer with the timing of the next cold front forecast
to move across the area on Thursday with rain chances diminishing
late Thursday or Thursday evening. The best instability is forecast
late Wednesday night and Thursday associated with the cold front and
there will be a chances for thunderstorms. There is also 30-40 kts
of low level shear forecast and we will be monitoring the potential
for severe thunderstorms with future forecasts. 

N GA will once again be the target of the heaviest rainfall potential
with estimated amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible for a large portion
of n GA  Wednesday and Thursday. We will be monitoring conditions for
any flooding potential with future forecasts.

Dry weather is expected Friday into Sunday as high pressure moves
to the area.   

Temperatures will continue above normal this long term period until 
Friday when temperatures will return closer to normal.

BDL

&&

.CLIMATE...
                          

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967    
                            1967                            
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967    
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967    
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967 

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly MVFR ceilings right now ahead of frontal system moving into
the area. The main line of showers will move across ATL between
13z-15z bringing strong showers and gusty winds to the airports. 
This line should make it through the area today but the main
frontal boundary will stall across N GA today then slowly sink
south Monday. This will keep the winds out of the SW today then 
turn to the NW overnight and NE by daybreak Monday. Wind speeds 
should be generally 12kt or less through the period. May see some 
gust in and around any stronger storms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence Medium to High on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  56  65  48 / 100 100  90  10 
Atlanta         69  55  65  49 / 100 100  90   5 
Blairsville     61  50  62  39 /  90  90  80   5 
Cartersville    63  52  65  45 / 100 100  80   5 
Columbus        74  60  69  52 / 100 100  90  10 
Gainesville     66  53  64  46 / 100 100  90   5 
Macon           77  60  68  51 /  80  80  90  10 
Rome            63  52  66  44 /  90  90  70   5 
Peachtree City  72  56  66  48 / 100 100  90   5 
Vidalia         82  63  74  54 /  40  50  70  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...01