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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 210100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
900 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The upper and surface lows have moved into the western Mid
Atlantic states. High pressure will continue to build in from the
west. The clearing line of cold air strato cu is closing in on the
AL/GA state line. Good cold air advection for this time of year
continues, with some areas in the far NE already in the mid/upper
30s. Have had to adjust the min temps down a few degrees than the
previous forecast. There are some isolated spots in the far NE 
CWFA that could dip to near freezing, especially in the highest 
elevations, mainly above 3-4kft. Not confident on much frost
formation, as clouds will be thick and near saturation at the
surface. Will hold off on any Frost/Freeze headlines at this time,
but will take another look if temps start going askew. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 719 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Closed upper low circulating over the southern Appalachians will 
gradually drift northeast overnight. Associated cloud shield should 
diminish and also pull to the northeast...but may take much of the 
afternoon and evening to improve across the area. The back edge of 
the showers seem to be progressive and have just about cleared west 
of Rome to Atlanta. After a cold night tonight...there will be a 
warming trend Sunday and Sunday night as the upper ridge builds 
across the southeast. Winds may gust some tomorrow but not as much 
as today. 


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Only minor tweeks to the precipitation chances later next week, 
otherwise the previous long term forecast looks on point.

At the start of the long term forecast on Monday upper-level ridging 
and a surface high pressure centered to the east will help to keep 
the area dry with above average temperatures until Thursday.

Low-resolution models beyond are coming closer to agreement than 
before but have major discrepancies with the development of a 
surface low-pressure system along the gulf. Both the GFS and Euro 
have upper-level cutoff low-pressure systems that primarily rejoins 
the subtropical jet stream. The Euro solution transitions quickly 
into a positively tilted trough with strong dynamic support for a 
surface low-pressure system developing along the baroclinic Gulf 
coast bringing a strong storm system through the forecast area on 
Friday. Afterwards, high pressure returns to the area. The GFS on 
the other hand, keeps a very weak upper-level cutoff low over the 
Gulf states after feeding most of its energy back into the main jet, 
and as a result, doesn't develop the same surface low-pressure 
system. Instead it keeps the area in broad Gulf flow with storms 
forming around an extended stationary front oriented horizontally 
across the state from Thursday night through the end of the extended 
period. Though the hope is on the former solution, it remains to be 
seen which one of these solutions will verify at this time. For now, 
mostly chance POPs for the back half of next week and we'll hold our 
breath in anticipation.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019/ 

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Dry weather is expected through Tuesday.

GFS and European are not too consistent with just the GFS indicating
some moisture skirting far n GA Wednesday/Wednesday night with
only small chances for light showers.
The GFS is much wetter on Thursday with the rain chances exiting
on Friday while the European is dry on Thursday and brings in the
moisture on Friday. This is mainly due to the European starting with
a closed low at 500mb and the GFS is indicating a more open wave.
Instability is somewhat limited but thunderstorms will certainly be
possible Thursday and Friday.


00Z Update...
Clouds will be decreasing this evening. Any lingering MVFR cigs
should break between 03Z-04Z. Wind gusts have already begun to
diminish this evening and should remain 6kt or below for the
remainder of the overnight. Gusts should pick up tomorrow,
15-20kt. VFR conditions on Sunday. 

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.


Athens          41  72  46  80 /  10   5   0   0 
Atlanta         45  71  49  78 /  10   0   0   0 
Blairsville     39  65  42  77 /  30  10   0   0 
Cartersville    41  71  45  78 /  10   0   0   0 
Columbus        45  75  49  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     42  70  47  76 /  20   5   0   0 
Macon           43  74  47  80 /   5   0   0   0 
Rome            39  72  46  79 /  10   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  40  73  46  79 /   5   0   0   0 
Vidalia         45  74  51  81 /   5   0   0   0 




SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Thiem