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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 150022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
822 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018


Outflow boundary collisions produced a beautiful line of
thunderstorms reaching from Franklin to Forsyth to Eastman this
evening, but these thunderstorms are finally starting to wane as
convective mixing comes to a close. Scattered showers will remain
across the area for the next several hours but are expected to
dissipate by around midnight for most of the forecast area. Only
minor tweaks to the forecast this evening, with the previous
forecast on track with a very similar setup in store tomorrow that
we have had over the last two days. Near-normal temps, BKN sky
cover, and afternoon thunderstorms with the highest chances for
the SW portions of the CWA where the largest forcing from the 
'wedge' front will be focused. Afterwards, outflow boundaries will
determine storm coverage.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
The weak surface high pressure ridge/wedge continues across the area 
and has built in fairly deep across the region. Lowered ceilings are 
expected to continue across the area through the short term as this 
wedge is not expected to weaken until Monday afternoon. Most areas 
across North and portions of central GA are still running about 5 to 
7 deg lower than what we have seen over the past few days but thats 
mainly due to the overcast skies and showers. There are also a few 
thunderstorms but the wedge is still keeping things below severe 
limits. These storms should continue through the evening hours and 
diminish by midnight. A few showers continued across the area over 
night last night so thinking we may still see some isolated showers 
overnight tonight. Will see another round of showers and 
thunderstorms Sun afternoon as well, and with the wedge still in 
place not expecting much in the way of severe storms Sunday either. 
This falls right in line with the general thunderstorm risk the 
entire southeastern U.S. is under through Monday.


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Minimal changes to the extended forecast, with the majority of the
period on track with latest model guidance. Continued to massage
pops with neighbors, and in general still expect above seasonal
chances through next week, with chances remaining through the
overnight periods as the unsettled moist environment continues
over the region, even with FROPA. Previous forecast discussion


/Issued 332 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018/ 
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement 
through the majority of the Long- Term Forecast period. Upper-
level flow transitions to a higher amplitude pattern as we head 
into the period as the upper ridge retreats westward and amplifies
with a deepening trough digging into the eastern U.S. Sharp 
frontal boundary sags into the forecast area by midweek, lingering
over the region through the latter half of the week. Some drier 
air does try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the 
front, but I do not anticipate this will be enough to eliminate 
POPs altogether across the north. Weak wave indicated along the 
old frontal boundary moves across the area late in the week and 
into the weekend should spread better rain chances back north late
in the period. High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected 
through the Extended Forecast period. 



00Z Update...
Convection is starting to wane this evening but some scattered
SHRA may persist for a few hours into the overnight. Cigs will
begin to drop after 08Z and could reach IFR conditions between
10-14Z. VSBYs may also lower in fog prone areas to MVFR/IFR around
12Z as well. Prevailing winds will be out of the west this evening
shifting to SW by tomorrow afternoon, and then southerly by late
tomorrow night. Precip should once again be developing by 18Z

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements.



Athens          71  88  72  89 /  30  40  40  60 
Atlanta         72  87  73  88 /  50  50  50  60 
Blairsville     66  82  67  83 /  30  50  40  60 
Cartersville    71  88  72  89 /  40  50  50  60 
Columbus        74  89  75  90 /  40  60  50  60 
Gainesville     71  86  72  87 /  30  50  40  60 
Macon           72  89  73  89 /  60  40  50  60 
Rome            71  89  72  90 /  40  50  50  70 
Peachtree City  71  87  72  88 /  60  60  50  60 
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  40  40  40  50