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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
868 
FXUS62 KFFC 201759 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
159 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Near term forecast updated already to expand area of slight 
chance SHRA/TSRA into eastcentral GA this afternoon. Any
convection should dissipate after 9pm. Rest of fcst in good shape.
New 12Z guidance not showing any big changes from previous runs.
Appears long wave ridging over the eastern CONUS and above normal
temps with isolated afternoon/evening convection will persist for
some time.

SNELSON

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 750 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Short term weather will be dependent upon short wave rotating 
around Tropical Storm Jose. The short wave will slowly move across
north Georgia. Models diverge on impact of weak low over LA, with
GFS more progressive absorbing impulses over central/south 
Georgia this afternoon and Thursday. GFS showing modest CAPE 
values of 1200-1500 J/KG each afternoon across central Georgia, as
well as minimal CAPE of 1000-1200 over the foothills of the 
Appalachians in northeast Georgia. Will focus POPs, albeit low 
end, over these areas this afternoon and again tomorrow. GFS also 
showing better moisture over central Georgia through the period 
with PWATs near 1.5 inches. Guidance temperatures continue to show
near normal, and are in good agreement. Will use a blend through 
the period.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long term period begins with broad ridge pattern over the eastern 
U.S. with flow around the high drawing Atlantic moisture into the 
southeast. Impulses within the flow will provide a focus for 
diurnally driven showers through mid-weekend, and have generally 
kept precip chances slight chance to good chance. Highest PoPs are 
expected Friday into Friday night.

Extended models continue to have converging solutions with Tropical 
Storm Jose and Hurricane Maria remaining well east of the area. 
Maria will pass the South Atlantic Bight Sunday through Tuesday, 
with the southeast in the subsidence zone, resulting in a more 
stable air mass over the state. Warm temperatures and little 
rainfall will continue through next week. 

31

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through 10Z after which some patchy
IFR/MVFR vsbys possible from radiational fog. Sfc winds will 
remain light (4-6kts) from the NW thru tonight then become NE 
after 12Z. Isolated SHRA possible over middle GA this afternoon 
and again Thurs afternoon over north and central GA airports. Have
added VCSH to ATL forecast after 18Z Thurs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  67  88  67 /  20  10  20  20 
Atlanta         88  69  87  69 /  10  10  20  20 
Blairsville     83  59  83  61 /  10  10  30  30 
Cartersville    88  65  88  67 /  10   5  20  20 
Columbus        89  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  20 
Gainesville     86  67  86  67 /  10  10  20  20 
Macon           90  68  90  68 /  20  20  20  20 
Rome            87  65  88  66 /  10   5  20  10 
Peachtree City  89  66  88  67 /  10  10  20  20 
Vidalia         91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...SNELSON