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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 201928 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
As mentioned in previous update, pattern expected to remain mostly
the same during the short term period. Somewhat unusual to see
temps this warm in late September. Isolated convection may become
a little more widespread over all of north and central GA Thursday
afternoon as it has today over middle GA today. Model blends doing
quite well with forecast temps, dewpoints and winds but did 
increase PoPs a bit during the afternoon and early evening. Any
tropical systems will remain well to our east. 


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
A broad ridge pattern and associated surface high pressure over the 
eastern CONUS will draw ample moisture from the Atlantic Ocean over 
the region to begin the extended period. Impulses within the upper 
level flow will provide a focus for diurnally driven showers and 
thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. NAM and GFS models show modest 
CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg in the afternoon on both 
days, along with PWATS as high as 1.5 inches which is slightly
above normal for this time of year. PoPs will be highest on 
Friday afternoon and are expected to be within the 30 to 40 
percent range on Friday afternoon throughout the region. 
Additionally, PoPs will be within the 20 to 30 percent range on 
Saturday afternoon. High relative humidity between 95 and 100 
percent coupled with light winds will lead to widespread patchy 
fog across central and northwest Georgia during the early morning 
hours on Friday through Sunday. 

GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian models continue to agree on Tropical Storm 
Jose and Hurricane Maria remaining well to the east of our region. 
No direct impact to the region from either tropical cyclone is 
expected to occur in the extended period. Maria will pass through 
the South Atlantic Ocean on Sunday through Tuesday. At this time the 
southeastern CONUS will be influenced by the subsidence zone to the 
west of Maria, which will result in a drier and more stable air mass 
over Georgia. PoPs will decrease to minimal values from Sunday into 
next week. Temperatures will remain above average throughout the 
extended period.




18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through 10Z after which some patchy 
IFR/MVFR vsbys possible from radiational fog. Sfc winds will 
remain light (4-6kts) from the NW thru tonight then become NE 
after 12Z. Isolated SHRA possible over middle GA this afternoon 
and again Thurs afternoon over north and central GA airports. 
Have added VCSH to ATL forecast after 18Z Thurs.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.



Athens          67  89  67  85 /  10  20  20  30 
Atlanta         69  88  69  85 /  10  20  20  30 
Blairsville     60  83  62  80 /  10  30  30  40 
Cartersville    65  88  67  86 /   5  20  20  40 
Columbus        71  91  70  88 /  10  20  20  30 
Gainesville     67  86  67  83 /  10  20  20  30 
Macon           68  90  68  86 /  20  20  20  30 
Rome            65  89  66  87 /   5  20  10  30 
Peachtree City  67  89  67  85 /  10  20  20  30 
Vidalia         71  90  70  88 /  20  30  30  30 




LONG TERM....NListemaa