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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
307 
FXUS62 KFFC 172300 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
A weak surface low will move east across the region through the 
remainder of the day.  Under fairly zonal flow, the dynamics 
associated with this system are well north of the region. This will 
result in mostly scattered showers across north Georgia with the 
main push of moisture now moving into northwest GA. Anticipate these 
bands of showers to progress across north GA through the next 
several hours. The line of moisture associated with a weak front 
will work south into central GA overnight.  The moisture and lift 
however will begin to wane. The front will sag south of the area by 
early tomorrow morning with brief high pressure moving in. Expect 
fairly clear skies across the northern half of GA tomorrow early 
morning through early afternoon. The surface high will move off the 
east coast during the day with the residual boundary to the south 
lifting north. Models are suggesting there will be enough moisture 
and lift along the front to support scattered showers tomorrow 
afternoon/evening. If this comes to fruition, this may help keep 
temperatures lower, especially across NE GA, reinforcing a very weak 
wedge.  Given we are not expecting widespread rain, have not 
modified temperatures at this time to reflect this possibility.

26

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only minor changes made to the extended forecast. The over all
pattern is expected to not change much with temperatures 
remaining 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the entire period. 
Moist southerly flow will continue Monday and Tuesday. An old 
frontal boundary over northern Georgia will move north of the area
by later in the day on Monday. Scattered showers will tend to 
focus on this boundary, but chances will lesson as the front 
pushes northward. 

Model solutions are all over the place for the Wednesday through
Saturday time frame. A second boundary will approach the area from
the nw/north on Wednesday. The GFS is faster and further south
with the progression of the front, while the ECMWF is slower and
never really brings the boundary across GA. So, a blend is the
definite way to go for this period. 

01/NListemaa

&&

CLIMATE...
  

Records for 02-18

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      75 1939     26 1903     57 1981      8 1958    
                1911                                        
   KATL      75 1951     28 1979     63 1891      8 1900    
                1891                                        
   KCSG      84 1927     32 1979     62 1981     12 1958    
   KMCN      80 1956     32 1979     61 1981     11 1900    
                1951                                        

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958    
                                        1986                
                                        1961                
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958    
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958    
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958    
                                        1981

&&                

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings with the cloud deck moving in
from the NW and confidence is low for the actual ceilings heights.
Showers associated with the cold front will diminish overnight.
Surface winds WSW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts becoming NNW 10 
kts or less overnight then NE-SE less than 10 kts on Sunday.
Clouds and ceilings will be highly variable on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for ceiling trends through Sunday.
Medium confidence for weather/shower trends this evening and
 wind speeds.
High confidence for wind direction into Sunday with
 Medium confidence for wind shift time.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          48  67  53  71 /  30  30  40  30 
Atlanta         48  64  56  72 /  50  30  30  20 
Blairsville     39  61  49  63 /  70  30  40  40 
Cartersville    44  65  54  71 /  60  30  40  30 
Columbus        57  69  59  78 /  20  20  20  10 
Gainesville     46  63  51  66 /  50  30  50  30 
Macon           57  69  57  77 /  20  20  20  10 
Rome            43  64  55  71 /  60  30  40  30 
Peachtree City  50  64  55  74 /  40  30  30  20 
Vidalia         61  74  58  80 /   5  20  10  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BDL