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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 201953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
353 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Ridging aloft will hold through the night and help to suppress 
thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Isolated storms are 
possible however...mainly northwest and far east central. The water 
vapor curve shows tropical moisture starting to increase into GA 
this afternoon...but only in the form of mid and high clouds so far. 
Moisture will continue to increase through the short term. The ridge 
aloft gets suppressed overnight as an upper low drops southeast into 
the mid MS Valley. This will put us in a west to southwest flow for 
Thursday and Thursday night. Weak impulses moving around the upper 
low will help increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms for 
tomorrow and tomorrow have continued with highest pops 
north and west for those time periods. Afternoon temperatures will 
not be quite as hot on Thursday due to increased clouds and showers.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The beginning of the extended forecast period will bring elevated 
rain and thunderstorm chances. On Friday, the upper low over the 
Ohio Valley traverses eastward and the trough axis pushes into the 
Southeast, providing likely rain chances, especially across north 
Georgia. Depending on the degree of destabilization Friday 
afternoon, strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible 
given increased mid/upper level winds. PWs will remain in the 1.5 - 
2" range, bringing the chance for locally heavy rainfall as well.

By Saturday, the upper pattern begins to transition into a zonal 
flow, though lingering surface moisture and weak perturbations aloft 
will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the picture. Upper 
ridging begins to build back in by Sunday into early next week, 
though diurnal convection can still be expected each day through the 
end of the extended.

Temperatures will remain hot through the weekend and the coming 
week. Highs may be kept down a few degrees across north Georgia 
Friday and Saturday with increased cloud cover and convection but 
will rebound by Sunday back into the 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s will 
keep afternoon heat indices well into the 90s in north Georgia with 
low 100s the rule in central Georgia. While these heat index values 
are just below Heat Advisory criteria, heat precautions still need 
to be exercised during the heat of the day.



18Z Update...

Cumulus deck SCT040-050 should develop during the afternoon across 
most of the taf sites. Clouds should dissipate during the early 
evening. Only isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and 
evening and probability too low to include in tafs. Will watch and 
see if and where they develop. Winds should remain mainly
northwest to north and diminish after 00z. Winds becoming more 
southwest tomorrow. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorms
development tomorrow. 


//ATL Confidence... 18Z Update... 

High on all elements.



Athens          73  91  71  88 /  10  50  40  60 
Atlanta         75  88  72  87 /  10  60  50  60 
Blairsville     66  81  65  82 /  20  70  60  60 
Cartersville    71  87  70  88 /  20  70  50  60 
Columbus        76  92  74  91 /  10  40  30  40 
Gainesville     73  87  71  85 /  10  60  40  60 
Macon           74  94  73  91 /  10  40  30  40 
Rome            72  86  70  88 /  30  70  40  60 
Peachtree City  73  90  71  88 /  10  50  40  50 
Vidalia         75  96  75  93 /  20  30  20  30