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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 170529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
129 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1032 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018/ 

Just minor tweaks to forecast package. Afternoon and evening
convection appears to be winding down, but will need to keep an
eye on area of storms south of I-20 and east of I-75. Hi-RES
reflectivity models have not had a good handle on the convection
and local WRF model continues to show convection continuing 
overnight with redevelopment over Columbus area toward morning.
Will continue low chance POPs toward daybreak and continue to
monitor through the overnight hours. Updated forecasts issued

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

An early start to convection across portions of the NE but a
decreasing trend in activity of late as outflows were sent east of
the area. Despite this, CAPE values, even mixed layer, of 3000
J/KG plus reside across the I20 corridor. Beginning to see this
influence as isolated activity begins across the Atlanta metro.
Convergence of NE activity and residual outflows and activity 
just south of AHN should coalesce in to a more substantial area of
thunderstorms for this evening. Strong to isolated severe storms 
remain possible as seen from activity already seen over NE GA 

With deep layer moisture increasing overnight, models hinting at
even some nocturnal activity across the SW portions. Could be more
stratus and light rain with just embedded convective activity but
will bear watching. An early start to convection for Sunday as
activity to the SW develops to the NE as we acquire a SW steering
flow. Lapse rates slightly steeper but overall cloud cover will be
more substantial. All in all, expect a slight increase in rain
chances and coverage and have painted likely pops for south
central portions of the forecast area.


LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Days 3 through 7 
continue to be largely dominated by broad high pressure ridge over 
the eastern US. Weak low pressure over the state will dampen out by 
Monday, though the better moisture will remain over the state. The 
high pressure ridge will help to suppress diurnal convection 
somewhat, but there remains enough moisture, instability and heating 
to trigger isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and 
evening. Ridge axis moves eastward by mid week, and shifts over the 
Atlantic late in the week, as low pressure approaches the Tennessee 
Valley from the Midwest. Have continued with slightly higher pops 
for the latter half of the week as the diminishing ridge influence 
allows for better precip coverage. Expect slightly higher than 
normal temperatures through the week with highs generally in the 90s 
and lows in the 70s.


06Z Update...
Showers continue near AHN this morning, but activity near the
metro airports has mostly diminished. Do think any activity should
remain north of ATL. Models are not producing IFR cigs overnight,
but do think the potential is there, especially where it rained.
Even included a tempo group for ATL. Light/VRB/very light SW 
winds will continue through the early morning, but direction 
should change to SE during the afternoon. Pops remain too low to 
mention at the northern airports right now, but have the prob30's 
for the southern airports. 

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.


Athens          89  70  92  72 /  40  30  30  20 
Atlanta         87  72  89  73 /  40  40  30  20 
Blairsville     85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  20 
Cartersville    88  70  90  71 /  40  40  30  20 
Columbus        87  72  91  74 /  40  40  30  20 
Gainesville     87  70  89  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Macon           88  71  92  72 /  40  40  30  20 
Rome            89  71  90  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Peachtree City  87  70  90  71 /  40  40  40  20 
Vidalia         89  73  91  73 /  40  40  30  20