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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 210500 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 741 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ 

Have only made minor adjustments to hourly pop and wx grids for
the next few hours as precip persists over portions of central
Georgia. Otherwise, previous forecast looks to be on track. 


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
As mentioned in previous update, pattern expected to remain mostly
the same during the short term period. Somewhat unusual to see
temps this warm in late September. Isolated convection may become
a little more widespread over all of north and central GA Thursday
afternoon as it has today over middle GA today. Model blends doing
quite well with forecast temps, dewpoints and winds but did 
increase PoPs a bit during the afternoon and early evening. Any
tropical systems will remain well to our east. 


LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
A broad ridge pattern and associated surface high pressure over the 
eastern CONUS will draw ample moisture from the Atlantic Ocean over 
the region to begin the extended period. Impulses within the upper 
level flow will provide a focus for diurnally driven showers and 
thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. NAM and GFS models show modest 
CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg in the afternoon on both 
days, along with PWATS as high as 1.5 inches which is slightly
above normal for this time of year. PoPs will be highest on 
Friday afternoon and are expected to be within the 30 to 40 
percent range on Friday afternoon throughout the region. 
Additionally, PoPs will be within the 20 to 30 percent range on 
Saturday afternoon. High relative humidity between 95 and 100 
percent coupled with light winds will lead to widespread patchy 
fog across central and northwest Georgia during the early morning 
hours on Friday through Sunday. 

GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian models continue to agree on Tropical Storm 
Jose and Hurricane Maria remaining well to the east of our region. 
No direct impact to the region from either tropical cyclone is 
expected to occur in the extended period. Maria will pass through 
the South Atlantic Ocean on Sunday through Tuesday. At this time the 
southeastern CONUS will be influenced by the subsidence zone to the 
west of Maria, which will result in a drier and more stable air mass 
over Georgia. PoPs will decrease to minimal values from Sunday into 
next week. Temperatures will remain above average throughout the 
extended period.



06Z Update...
Patchy to areas of IFR-MVFR vsbys in fog 10-13z. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected today into tonight. Sct-Bkn cu 4000-6000 ft 
with some higher layers. Surface winds calm or light NW to start 
then NNE during the day less than 10 kts. Isolated to scattered 
showers/thunderstorms possible after 16z. Due to the high 
uncertainly, have continued a VCSH at TAF sites, except for AHN, 

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence for wind direction with respect to which side of 
north the winds will be and VCSH late afternoon/early evening. 
High confidence on all other elements.



Athens          89  67  85  65 /  20  20  30  20 
Atlanta         88  69  85  68 /  20  20  30  20 
Blairsville     83  62  80  60 /  30  30  40  20 
Cartersville    88  67  86  65 /  20  20  40  20 
Columbus        91  70  88  69 /  20  20  30  20 
Gainesville     86  67  83  66 /  20  20  30  20 
Macon           90  68  86  67 /  20  20  30  20 
Rome            89  66  87  66 /  20  10  30  20 
Peachtree City  89  67  85  66 /  20  20  30  20 
Vidalia         90  70  88  69 /  30  30  30  20