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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

FXUS62 KFFC 170736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Still a very weak trough across the northern half of the CWFA this 
morning. In the mid levels, an upper low will meander over AL/W GA 
today, before high pressure builds in on Monday. Due to the cooler 
temps aloft (steeper lapse rates), good surface instability and deep 
moisture in place the coverage of storms should be greater today 
than in previous days. With high pressure building on for Monday, 
coverage will be less, but isold/scattered storms still possible. 

Strong storms will be likely and an isolated severe thunderstorm 
cannot be ruled out. Any storm that develops will have the potential 
to produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail. The 
primary severe thunderstorm hazards will be damaging wind gusts and 
potentially large hail. The steering winds aloft today and tomorrow 
will be aob 10kt, so storm movement will be slow - and locally heavy 
rainfall is likely with any storm that develops. 

For those with outdoor activities planned today, stay weather aware. 
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by 
lightning. You should seek shelter if you see lightning or hear 
thunder. In addition, Heat Indices will range from the middle to 
upper 90s across much of the state today. If you plan on being 
outdoors for long periods of time, take frequent breaks to cool off 
and stay hydrated.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Extended period continues to be dominated by broad upper level
ridge over the eastern US. This area of high pressure will shift
eastward with the axis pushing off the east coast by the latter
half of this week as low pressure approaches from the west. As the
ridge weakens and repositions, diurnal convection will be less
inhibited, and have continued with slightly higher afternoon pops
by midweek. 

Extended model solutions differ somewhat from the previous model
runs, but continue to advertise slightly higher PoPs into next
weekend. Both the ECMWF and GFS are showing moisture associated 
with low pressure over northeast Mexico spreading through the 
northern Gulf Coast states and into Georgia. This moisture 
combines with that associated with low pressure over the MidWest 
to increase precip chances over Georgia into the weekend. 

Higher than normal temperatures are still expected through the
week with highs generally in the 90s and lows in the 70s. 



06Z Update...
Showers continue near AHN this morning, but activity near the
metro airports has mostly diminished. Do think any activity should
remain north of ATL. Models are not producing IFR cigs overnight,
but do think the potential is there, especially where it rained.
Even included a tempo group for ATL. Light/VRB/very light SW 
winds will continue through the early morning, but direction 
should change to SE during the afternoon. Pops remain too low to 
mention at the northern airports right now, but have the prob30's 
for the southern airports. 

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.


Athens          89  70  91  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Atlanta         87  72  88  73 /  40  40  30  20 
Blairsville     85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  20 
Cartersville    88  70  89  70 /  40  40  30  20 
Columbus        86  72  89  73 /  40  40  30  20 
Gainesville     87  70  89  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Macon           86  71  90  72 /  40  40  30  20 
Rome            89  71  90  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Peachtree City  86  70  88  71 /  40  40  30  20 
Vidalia         88  72  90  73 /  40  40  30  20 




SHORT TERM...NListemaa