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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
060 
FXUS62 KFFC 151742
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
140 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.Update...

No changes to the forecast at this time. 

41


REV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Very similar moist and conditionally unstable regime today as the 
last several days with only a slight shift of the main instability 
axis to the western majority of the area as a weak ridge persists 
eastward into the Carolinas. Chance for scattered diurnal convection 
will be maximized this afternoon into evening, though some weak 
areas of lingering sfc convergence given any pre-existing boundaries 
can allow for a stray shower or storm to trigger any time. Some 
storms could be strong and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled 
out especially where colliding outflows can add some updraft 
enhancement. Will need to monitor the potential for more organized 
convection developing upstream to the NW of the region going into 
tonight and early Monday with any shortwave impulses traversing 
ahead of an amplifying upper flow. The greater shortwave energy 
should be more across the CWA for Monday and have gone with likely 
pops area-wide given the extra forcing.

Temps above normal for overnight lows and slightly below norms for 
highs given the cu field and convection coverage.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Medium-range model trends continue to be consistent and in fairly 
good agreement through the majority of the Long-Term Forecast period.
Relatively high-amplitude upper pattern persists with the eastern
U.S. under a deepening upper trough. Sharp frontal boundary sags 
into the forecast area midweek, lingering over the region through 
the latter half of the week before washing out. Some drier air does 
try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the front, but
not enough to eliminate POPs altogether across the north just yet. 
High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected through the Extended 
Forecast period. 

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update... Cumulus field in the 3500-4500 ft range this afternoon 
and again showers/storms with greatest chance 18-00z. Winds light 
southeast this afternoon...but may swing to the southwest 
temporarily. KATL should swing southwest after 00z tonight with some 
lowering cigs to ifr for tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction
High on all else.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          88  71  89  72 /  40  30  60  50 
Atlanta         87  73  88  72 /  50  40  60  50 
Blairsville     82  66  82  68 /  60  40  70  60 
Cartersville    89  71  89  71 /  50  40  70  60 
Columbus        89  74  90  74 /  60  50  60  40 
Gainesville     86  71  87  71 /  40  40  70  50 
Macon           89  72  89  73 /  50  30  60  40 
Rome            90  71  90  71 /  50  40  60  60 
Peachtree City  88  72  88  72 /  50  40  60  50 
Vidalia         90  74  90  74 /  30  30  60  40 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41