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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
524 
FXUS62 KFFC 181127
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
627 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Frontal boundary currently pushing south across the central CWFA. 
Some patchy light rain is associated with the boundary and rainfall 
rates remain very light at this time. This boundary will continue to 
push a little further south today, but is expected to remain across 
the CWFA as a high pressure wedge develops by tomorrow. 

The hi-res models keep today fairly dry along the boundary. However, 
some light precipitation is possible overnight. As the wedge sets up, 
and isentropic lift begins up and over the wedge, some patchy light 
precip is possible mainly across northern portions of the CWFA. 
QFP amounts remain very light. 

Temps will remain well above average through the period. Values 
should be a little lower across the northern two thirds of the CWFA 
today under thicker cloud cover. For tomorrow, cooler temperatures 
are expected within the wedge.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

No real changes to the long-term forecast trends as there remains no
real changes to the medium-range model trends through the next 7
days. Flat upper-level pattern does amplify a bit through the
upcoming work week, but the forecast area remains under the
transition zone between the ridge over the southwest Atlantic/eastern
Gulf of Mexico and the persistent trough over the western U.S. Best 
dynamics and moisture remain north and west of the state, but passing
short waves transiting through the flow do manage to push occasional
frontal boundaries into the region. Timing differences remain between
the various models, but all point to increased chances for
precipitation mid-week and again next weekend. Sufficient instability
for a mention of thunder with the Wednesday/Thursday system and
probably again with the weekend system. With a serious lack of 
strong dynamics, the potential for isolated severe weather looks 
small at best. 

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals, at times 
possibly flirting with record warmth. 

20

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-18

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      75 1939     26 1903     57 1981      8 1958    
                1911                                        
   KATL      75 1951     28 1979     63 1891      8 1900    
                1891                                        
   KCSG      84 1927     32 1979     62 1981     12 1958    
   KMCN      80 1956     32 1979     61 1981     11 1900    
                1951                                        

Records for 02-19

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 1939     29 2015     54 2014     14 1958    
                                        1986                
                                        1961                
   KATL      78 1891     28 2015     59 2014     13 1958    
   KCSG      80 2011     35 2015     58 1949     17 1958    
   KMCN      82 1956     34 2015     59 1986     17 1958    
                                        1981                

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015    
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015    
                                        1994        1934    
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015    
                                        1917                
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015    
                1986                                        

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885    
                1925                                        
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896    
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958    
                                        1971                
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958    

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963    
                            1963                            
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963    
                1949                                        
                1917                                        
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963    
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963    

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939    
                1980                                        
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939    
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963    
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963    
                1909                                        

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989    
                                                    1967    
                                                    1947    
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989    
                                                    1947    
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989    
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901    
                1930                                        



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Clearing line behind the frontal boundary is rapidly approaching
ATL. Do think a period of VFR conditions will be likely for the
remainder of the morning. MVFR clouds/cigs should begin to fill
back in during the early/mid afternoon. Reduced cigs/vsbys likely
overnight with fog/drizzle and low stratus. A wind shift to the
east side is expected between 14z and 16z. 

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements. 

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  53  65  55 /  10  30  20  20 
Atlanta         63  55  71  57 /  30  30  10  10 
Blairsville     60  48  61  51 /  10  40  30  20 
Cartersville    64  53  69  56 /  20  40  10  10 
Columbus        71  59  77  60 /  10  10   5   5 
Gainesville     62  50  61  54 /  10  40  30  20 
Macon           71  58  77  58 /  10  10   5  10 
Rome            64  54  71  56 /  20  40  10  10 
Peachtree City  64  55  73  56 /  30  20  10  10 
Vidalia         76  58  79  60 /  10  10   5   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NListemaa