Welcome to the New NWS' Forecast!
Most changes are behind the scenes, but click here for differences you might notice.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
496 
FXUS62 KFFC 221728
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ 

UPDATE...
Cold front is currently crossing the Mississippi River. High
pressure is still anchored across the Middle Atlantic and should
begin to push offshore later today. Precip changes remain very
small and mostly confined to the southern portion of the CWFA.
Temperatures look on track, but have tweaked the sky grids.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 737 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

The dry conditions we have seen over the past week are over as 
increased moisture and precip moves into the state today and 
tonight. High pressure centered over the mid atlantic states finally 
looses its grip on the eastern seaboard as a developing frontal 
system moves east out of the MS river valley today. East to 
southeasterly flow ahead of this frontal system will help to 
increases RH levels across the region today. This will prime the 
atmosphere for the showers and thunderstorms expected to move in 
with the frontal movement beginning this evening and continuing 
Monday. Will see increased cloud cover today with a few light 
showers this afternoon but the main precip moves into west GA just 
after sunset tonight. Showers will increase across north and central 
GA from the west with and isolated thunderstorms or two as well 
overnight. There is a little instability across the area as this 
precip pushes into the state tonight but it looks like the best 
chance of thunder/strong storms will be Monday afternoon during the 
prime heating of the day. 

The biggest concern with this frontal passage is the best 
instability is over the area tonight but the best shear values are 
over the area Monday afternoon. With this in mind...we could see 
some thunder over night but the stronger storms and possible 
rotating storms will be mainly over eastern GA Mon afternoon just 
before it exits the area. Currently we are not expecting much in the 
way of severe weather but would not be surprised if wee see a severe 
storm or two Monday afternoon. This also matches well with the 
current SPC thinking as east GA is under a Marginal risk area for 
Day 2. 

High temps today will be mainly in the 70s and 80s with temps Monday 
in the 60s and 70s. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

01

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Heavier precipitation should be sweeping east of the forecast area as
the period begins Monday night into early Tuesday. Right now it
appears that moisture will be too limited Wednesday for POPs as a
secondary upper trough and associated short wave move across. This
secondary system does push through another shot of good cold
advection with our coolest temperatures of the week expected
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Highly amplified and very progressive
upper pattern transitions the region back to southwesterly upper flow
quickly with a subsequent quick rebound in temperatures back toward
seasonal normals by the end of the week. The next upper trough/short
wave and the associated surface front sweep through next weekend. 

20



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Latest sat imagery shows lingering stratus from this morning has bkn 
up into a widespread cu field. Sct bkn sct025 will be possible for 
the next hour or two. IFR cigs are expected overnight, along with 
increasing chances for shra. Do think the best chances for thunder 
will be between 14z and 18Z tomorrow and think thunderstorms should 
remain isolated to scattered. Winds will remain on the east side 
through early tomorrow, but go to the west side behind any 
convection/the cold front. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high confidence on thunder timing. Medium confidence on
cigs overnight. High confidence remaining elements. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  66  71  54 /  10  60  90  60 
Atlanta         77  68  70  53 /  10  80  90  40 
Blairsville     71  61  66  48 /  10  70  90  50 
Cartersville    76  66  69  50 /  10  90  90  30 
Columbus        83  71  74  55 /  10  80  90  30 
Gainesville     74  66  68  53 /  10  70  90  50 
Macon           83  70  74  55 /  20  50  90  50 
Rome            77  66  69  50 /  10  90  90  30 
Peachtree City  78  68  71  52 /  10  80  90  30 
Vidalia         83  71  79  59 /  30  40  90  70 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$