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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Peachtree City, GA (FFC)

                            
000
FXUS62 KFFC 150308
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018


.UPDATE...
Widespread persistent rainfall continues this evening 
amid continued abundant southerly flow. As the parent upper low 
continues to lift through the Mid Mississippi Valley, a surface 
low formed across northeast Alabama and will continue to lift 
northward through the overnight hours. Rainfall rates have not 
been overly heavy, but with continued steady rainfall and embedded
higher rainfall rates, the Flash Flood Watch will continue 
through Thursday morning given saturated soils. The heaviest 
additional rainfall totals continue to be expected across eastern 
portions of the area through Thursday morning where 1-2" totals 
are anticipated with locally higher amounts. Rain will taper from 
west to east through the morning hours bringing a gradual end to 
the flooding threat. 

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 645 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The short term period begins with a closed upper level low to our 
west and ample moisture overspreading the area at the surface, 
resulting in scattered showers across much of the area. As the plume 
of moisture off the gulf continues to push into our area through the 
rest of the day, more widespread rainfall will overtake the area 
this afternoon and evening. The heaviest of the rainfall will occur 
this evening and potentially into the overnight hours. A Flash Flood 
Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning with 1 to 3 inches 
expected in the watch area with the highest amounts generally along 
and south of the I-85 corridor, with locally higher amounts 
possible. Soils are already saturated due to the 2 to 4+ inches that 
have fallen since the beginning of the week in portions of north and 
central Georgia. As such, localized flash flooding and additional 
river flooding issues could be possible with these additional 
rainfall amounts. Overall, with very minimal instability present, 
severe storms are not anticipated, leaving heavy rain and flooding 
the primary threats.

Temperatures on Thursday will be fairly chilly with many areas only 
making it into the 40s in north GA and upper 40s lower 50s in 
central GA. As the precip pushes out and the upper level low starts 
to lift north, the upper level flow shifts more northwesterly and 
cold air rushes in dropping temperatures rapidly overnight. Low 
temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning will be in the 20s 
and 30s across the entire area. Interested parties should continue 
to monitor the forecast for any Freeze Watches/Warnings that may be 
issued with subsequent forecast packages. Patchy frost will also be 
possible across a good portion of the area. 

These cold temperatures mixed with the possibility of lingering wrap 
around moisture across far northern portions of the area will result 
in the possibility of mixed precip in the northeast mountains with 
little to no accumulation expected. Current thinking is more of a 
slight chance/chance of brief rain or snow showers in the late 
evening to just overnight in the higher elevations. The limiting 
factor in this setup continues to be available moisture to produce 
precipitation. The rest of the area should remain dry. 

Reaves

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Zonal or nearly zonal upper flow pattern persists through the 
majority of the extended forecast period pointing to a dry and 
seasonally mild Long-Term Forecast this weekend through the middle 
of next week. Weak short wave approaches early in the week, however 
little available moisture and weak and basically "channeled" nature 
of the vorticity do not appear conducive to generating anything but 
an increase in mid/high cloudiness.

20

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
IFR cigs prevail this evening amid widespread rainfall at all TAF
sites. Expect IFR cigs to continue with LIFR cigs and IFR vsbys possible
at times through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. 
Ceilings likely will not improve into MVFR range until 17-19z 
Thursday. Steady rain will begin to taper off around 10-12z. Winds
remain from the E/NE 10-12 kts with gusts as high as 15-20 knots,
though wind speeds and gusts will slacken into the early morning 
hours. Wind direction is expected to shift to the NW by around 15z
Thursday with west winds prevailing thereafter.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          38  44  31  56 / 100  50   5   0 
Atlanta         40  42  32  52 / 100  30   0   0 
Blairsville     36  42  26  53 / 100  50  20   0 
Cartersville    39  42  29  52 / 100  40   5   0 
Columbus        42  47  33  56 / 100  20   0   0 
Gainesville     38  42  31  54 / 100  40   5   0 
Macon           43  50  32  56 / 100  30   0   0 
Rome            38  42  29  54 / 100  40   5   0 
Peachtree City  40  44  31  54 / 100  30   0   0 
Vidalia         46  53  36  56 / 100  40   5   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Thursday for the following 
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...
Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...
Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...White...
Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW